Get ready for the trumpcession:
1 Like
Yeah. THIS.
Iām in consumer finance (mid to high boat/RV). Lets just say that consumer confidence isnāt exactly high. Interest rates have come down (super prime can get financed at ~7% range), but it isnāt the extra 1-3% APR that are deterring purchases.
There have been a LOT of very high-end deals that went through a very attractive LTVs b/c previous owner FAFO and is liquidating everything. Not GFC level, but there is definitely stress there.
~5-8% of my portfolio has had their FICOs drop by 200+ points since purchase. That isnāt because they suddenly have to start paying student loansā¦
We all know the cause of it thoughā¦
Sold job report today
Trump inherited a strong economy. He better not screw it up.
trump is already hard at work on tanking the economy. What a buffoon he is, not sure what is worse, trump or the cult that follows him.
1 Like
So who has (or will soon be) rebalancing their portfolio?
I will
So, a question for anyone with economic knowledge, of which I have only basic:
Trump wanted tariffs to finance his tax breaks, which to my understanding benefit primarily the wealthy.
Tariffs are not going so well as we have all seen.
So, if tariffs get scrapped, the tax breaks, I bet, continue.
Deficit grows astronomically because thereās only so much government you can cut before the populace revolts.
Sounds right?
3 Likes
I already did it a couple of weeks ago. I have only about 20% in the market right now.
Yes. The administration wants to
- raise revenue from tariffs to cover the tax cuts
- use tariffs either to bring industry back to the states, or else use them as a way to leverage concessions from other countries.
1 and 2 are directly contradictory. If industry moves back to the US, or if other countries cede to our demands, we donāt get tariff revenue.
Thatās why itās just mind numbingly stupid what the administration is doing.
I did when they first announced the tariffs on Canada and Mexico. And reading things like this article https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/business/economy/trump-economic-advisers-bessent.html
The tariffs are not just an act and they wonāt go away in a week. I have very little exposure right now. Too close to retirement to have that stress added in.
ETA - I think if you are still in the market right now it is on the late end of rebalancing and riding it out may be the correct answer. I am actually to the point where I am debating when to move back in.
I rebalance mine once a year, maybe 2 at max, at the end of the year. Having said that Iāll probably take a look at it again to see if I can reduce risk to the portfolio.
I will not. I hold Fortune 500 stock that pay strong dividends (Exxon, Verizon, Altria, etc.). All have strong earnings and cash flow. I am not selling regardless of the stock price movement. If anything, I will buy more.
I also rebalance at the end of the year, but may do a few tweaks now.
I canāt see how the endless flip flopping and irrational behavior brings industry back to the U.Sā¦ If anything the uncertainty makes companies question investing here.
As for paying down the deficit with tariff money, that is not going to happen. Trump said the same thing last time but used the revenue from the tariffs to pay off farmers.
This whip lash of flip-flopping tariffs makes the US (Trump) look completely incompetent. When many experts from within and outside the US are literally calling them ādumbā, how does this inspire consumer confidence?
Honestly if I wasnāt going to my last worlds 70.3 in Nov 2025 I would just quit racing now and really focus on preparing for the worst. I hope Iām wrong but Iām sensing another big recession maybe even worse than 2008. And with so many govt workers unemployed this will also affect the economy. Canceled govt contracts will hurt some businesses leading to more layoffs. The ripple effects are just beginning.
And what angers me is that revenue from tariffs and dismantling the US govt will not help the American taxpayer unless you are a billionaire. And Trumpās base doesnāt understand any of this. As long as they āown those libsā they will support this.
2 Likes
The February jobs report doesnāt include all the federal employees that were let go. I also read yesterday that they are working hard to find a way to exclude them from the March report.
They make Trump look incompetent because he is incompetent. The arguments that Trump is a smart business mind never made any sense.
He isnāt smart. He was never a good businessman.
Heās an idiot and now his brain getting worse by the day.
2 Likes
You are preaching to the choir. Trump is a grossly unqualified imbecile. I never believed he was a smart businessman.
Trump is just a mean and evil version of Forrest Gump. Right time right place combined with a fair amount of luck.