So with a few days to go to the Grande Departe in the middle of the France Covid19 “heat zone” on the Cote d’Azur, everything seems somewhat uncertain!!!
Bernal has a bad back (purportedly), Thomas did not even make the cut for his team, Froome shelved by Brailsford, Roglic, Sivakov and Pinot maybe banged up from Dauphine crashes Carapez banged up from from Tour of Poland crash Dumoulin quietly coming on very strong at the end of Dauphine, Quintana looking strong but dropping out in the last Dauphine stage from pain from his knee post training crash in Colombia, a parcours that the ASO built to favour guys like Bardetteams who have 2 Covid19 positives get tossedMany sprinters like French champion Arnaud deMar not going to TdF due to constant hills and mountainsSagan Green again or does Jumbo burn matches chasing green for Wout Van Aert?
Lots of stuff that can go any which way this year. Plus no one has traditional builds. Roglic was on fire and untouchable, but was he too good too soon. Slovenia had a looser lockdown than some nations so maybe he could train harder. 4 weeks from now we’ll have all the answers, if the TdF even gets to Paris and the entire thing does not get shut down from Covid19, but Macron seems hell bent to keep his economy open and no shutdowns…so fingers crossed.
I am hoping that we have a crazy wide open TdF this year without one team dominating and ruling the peloton.It “may” be one of the most entertaining tours in years. One of my bikes is already on the trainer in front of the TV in preparation for a lot of late night spinning down here in Oz…
So with a few days to go to the Grande Departe in the middle of the France Covid19 “heat zone” on the Cote d’Azur, everything seems somewhat uncertain!!!
Bernal has a bad back (purportedly), Thomas did not even make the cut for his team, Froome shelved by Brailsford, Roglic, Sivakov and Pinot maybe banged up from Dauphine crashes Carapez banged up from from Tour of Poland crash Dumoulin quietly coming on very strong at the end of Dauphine, Quintana looking strong but dropping out in the last Dauphine stage from pain from his knee post training crash in Colombia, a parcours that the ASO built to favour guys like Bardetteams who have 2 Covid19 positives get tossedMany sprinters like French champion Arnaud deMar not going to TdF due to constant hills and mountainsSagan Green again or does Jumbo burn matches chasing green for Wout Van Aert?
Lots of stuff that can go any which way this year. Plus no one has traditional builds. Roglic was on fire and untouchable, but was he too good too soon. Slovenia had a looser lockdown than some nations so maybe he could train harder. 4 weeks from now we’ll have all the answers, if the TdF even gets to Paris and the entire thing does not get shut down from Covid19, but Macron seems hell bent to keep his economy open and no shutdowns…so fingers crossed.
Open? In what way? The winner or the podium?
Bernal wins hand Down, roglic peaked too early, may not even make the podium, Dumoulin isn’t quite there. Pinot could be a contender, But his performance at dauphine shows why he’ll never win (bad decisions).
Bernal 1st, uran on the podium again, because he hangs on. The last one on the podium (who might be second overall), anyone’s guess, But Bernal Will be so far in front that the race Will be for 2nd/3rd place.
I’m looking forward to it. I hope it proceeds without major interruptions. I agree it is wide open.
Given that the hope of doing tris is widely evaporating, the hope of a Tour de France has brought normalcy in my life and the return to pro bike racing feels almost normal versus pro sports like NHL, MLB, Champion’s league (anyone but Bayern…dammit)
Having said that the Esprit Full IM and half IM in Montreal are going as planned on Sep 12th. They just ran a 500 person run race at the same venue this weekend, so it looks like “it is on”…so I need to get some bike fitness now…watching TdF should make it motivating to get my ass out to do some real rides vs transportation rides only.
If I were going to bet money, I’d put it on Bernal for the win. But it’s less of a sure thing than what it’s been in some past years.
The sprint stages and the Green Jersey are going to be interesting. There are still at least nine stages that will end in sprints (if the break doesn’t get caught), and depending on who can get over all of the climbs (and not get eliminated for missing a time cut), it will be fun to see how many stages Ewan can win and if Sagan is still fast enough/motivated enough to win the Green Jersey again.
I Think the green Jersey is the least interesting. Sagan wins it again. He’s fast, But not the fastest, But still he’s a stronger rider than most in a breakaway. Wout Van aert could be a Challenger, But it’d be a bad decision to go for it if jumbo visma are serious about the Yellow Jersey. I doubt any “real†sprinter Will beat Sagan - the simply cant keep up with him in a break away
Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch…
I Think the green Jersey is the least interesting. Sagan wins it again. He’s fast, But not the fastest, But still he’s a stronger rider than most in a breakaway. Wout Van aert could be a Challenger, But it’d be a bad decision to go for it if jumbo visma are serious about the Yellow Jersey. I doubt any “real†sprinter Will beat Sagan - the simply cant keep up with him in a break away
The thing about the Green Jersey is that its not really targeted at pure sprinters. Its more targeted at the likes of Zabel and Sagan. I believe it was 2004 TdF where Zabel finished 30th or so overall in the GC. Telekom were burning matches for intermediate sprint points instead of saving their legs so that Jan could deal with Lance. Hopefully Jumbo don’t do like Telekom with WvA!!! What about Matthews on the Green front. He hurt his hand in Milano San Remo, but anyone know if he is better?
Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch…
Does Bernal win last year without the landslide and would Thomas have taken the win? It is too bad that Thomas gained his Covid15 (lbs)
I agree! Such a weird, interuppted season, loss of money, UCI points up in the air, lots of transfers to occur.
Who will be loyal, who will not? Collusion between DS’s?
I do wish the best for Pinot, but keep an eye on my personal up-and-comer, Guillame Martin!
Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch…
Does Bernal win last year without the landslide and would Thomas have taken the win? It is too bad that Thomas gained his Covid15 (lbs)
I thought the consensus was that the landslide that took a couple big climbs out of the race hurt Bernal, who was the best climber.
So many more variables this Tour! I think the dynamics will make for some really interesting tactics from day to day that will be unexpected.
My PVR is cleared…
Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch…
Does Bernal win last year without the landslide and would Thomas have taken the win? It is too bad that Thomas gained his Covid15 (lbs)
I thought the consensus was that the landslide that took a couple big climbs out of the race hurt Bernal, who was the best climber…
Bernal was going to have to put in a chunk of solo Km from the top of the 2nd climb, across any approach to the last climb, and all way to the finish. No way Yates was going to help and risk missing out on the stage win. Any cooperation in the group behind could have really trimmed his lead. He did have the advantage of Thomas getting a free ride all the way to and up the final climb, which might have factored in the “coulda, woulda, shouldaâ€, but I don’t think it is safe to assume that Bernal could have put a ton of additional time into everyone after doing all the solo work.
I honestly don’t get the why so many people are picking Bernal over Roglic. I can’t think of any previous race where Bernal was even close to dominating Roglic. I may have missed it, but when I have seen them race Bernal has always been ineffective against Roglic on the climbs and TTs aren’t even close.
I have to pick Roglic assuming his injuries from the crash won’t be a factor. He just needs to stay upright and healthy. I would love to see something crazy happen and Pinot win. It fits well with “2020. The year of crazy sh-t.â€, but I don’t even think that is enough for him to win. My dark horse though is Dumoulin. He should be the definition of “fresh as a daisy†and he could be really going well at the end of 3 weeks.
Matthews is not going to the Tour. Team didn’t select him. Even if he had, unless Sagan is truly unmotivated, out of shape or somehow lost something like its been rumored every year for the past 3 or 4, Matthews has never put in a serious challenge for it. Sure, he won it once, but only after the guys ahead of him were either kicked out or crashed out.
Don’t get me wrong, Matthews is strong and looked good as MSR, but when both are at their best and motivated, he is not on Sagan’s level.
WVA on the other hand could challenge for it, but as others have said I think his focus is likely GC support this year at least. Don’t think you’ll see him trying to sneak into breaks early on in the race with Sagan, but who knows.
I honestly don’t get the why so many people are picking Bernal over Roglic. I can’t think of any previous race where Bernal was even close to dominating Roglic. I may have missed it, but when I have seen them race Bernal has always been ineffective against Roglic on the climbs and TTs aren’t even close.
I have to pick Roglic assuming his injuries from the crash won’t be a factor. He just needs to stay upright and healthy. I would love to see something crazy happen and Pinot win. It fits well with “2020. The year of crazy sh-t.â€, but I don’t even think that is enough for him to win. My dark horse though is Dumoulin. He should be the definition of “fresh as a daisy†and he could be really going well at the end of 3 weeks.
Halfway through the CdD, it looked like Roglic was going to be the favorite. Especially on the morning of Stage 4 when Bernal dropped out with his sore back. And then…
I’m guessing Bernal’s back is OK after a couple of weeks off, and he’s now the outright leader for Ineos. Roglic’s road dizziness and road rash after his crash sound like they could still be a problem. Losing Kruijswijk won’t help Roglic’s chances either. It will be interesting to see what role Dumoulin plays.
Cue the conspiracy theories if Pinot wins after Ineos and JV were kicked out for have two COVID positives.
Roglic’s dizziness was troubling. It almost feels certain that he had a concussion but since cycling has no proper concussion protocol, they kept it quiet since recovery time can be uncertain:
Bernal for the win and Sagan for the green jersey. Anything else is a toss up. However, the TdF is crazy, anything could happen, just ask Evanpoel. Ouch…
Does Bernal win last year without the landslide and would Thomas have taken the win? It is too bad that Thomas gained his Covid15 (lbs)
I thought the consensus was that the landslide that took a couple big climbs out of the race hurt Bernal, who was the best climber. https://youtu.be/N4RpGMdTIhw
Wiggins seems to think g would have taken the tour last year.
Another key variable for Sagan is that he is also racing the Giro, which starts just 13 days after the Tour. Can he win green while holding something in reserve for the Giro? Seems doubtful. On the other hand, maybe he is all-in for the Tour and is just racing the Giro with far lesser ambitions. He says he wants both points jerseys, but that sounds like bluster.