So it seems in TdF 2025, Jonas has followed Tadej most of the time (generally the only one to do it), but conceded big time in the first flat ITT.
The day after Bastille day is an out of the ordinary Tuesday first rest day (because they have to race on July 14th in France). In any case rest day is here on the 15th and next are the high mountain stages and the 10km uphill TT.
This touches on some of the upcoming stages:
This is the profile for the uphill TT to Peyragudes which gains 650m in the last 7km or so
In the name of having competitive races, I hope so though I don’t really see it happening.
That said, if we are buying the “Jonas is better at long steady climbs” story, then stage 18, with three, 20km long HC climbs seems to be the place he can really make a mark.
Though I’d want to have seen Jonas put Tadej in some difficulty or at least on the back foot before then in stage 16 on Ventoux or in the Superbagneres stage as you point out.
Thanks @Kevin_in_MD for pasting in the profile for Col de la Loze stage. I think the pandemic year (2020) TdF had this after they paved a ski service road. I just realized Col de la Loze is the Souvenir Henri Desgrange. I just assumed it was Tourmalet since Galibier is not on deck but just realized that La Loze is higher.
I guess I wonder if all the classics heroics from Tadej catches up, or that was just him toying around with the Peloton like he did last fall. Regardless on week three it helps to be a 60 kilo rider vs 67 kilos. Jonas should cumulatively have to burn 10-12 percent less kilojoules on aggregate (albeit on a smaller body). But it all adds up
I heard reports that Tadej is extremely energy efficient. He gets lots of watts with using less energy then others. Plus I thought it interesting that he was on his TT bike yesterday-albeit he did change the wheels out. He’s just an incredible cyclist even though I wish Jonas would just go by him but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Also now that I think about it-UAE has been pushing the pace-like fatigue really isn’t being considered.
Just thinking
Visma has a much stronger team around Jonas now with Almeida out!
Yates already proven, Van Aert (to be seen) and Sepp Kuss, that I think they have been saving for what comes next. If Visma can get their attack tactics together as in 2023, they may just be able to punch a whole in Tadej as a team.
I think Tadej must be a bit surprised that he hasnt been able to shake Jonas on any of the 5-6 explosions till now, as he normally can.
Finally (at least in Danish media) Jonas seems much more confident than I have ever seen him - that is a good position to move into the next two weeks.
This will only work if Jonas actually launches from VLAB’s train making the race hard, and manages to drop Pogacar. Could he do it? Yes, I think he is the only one that could do it. Will it actually work? I don’t think it will, unless Pog is having a bad day.
Stars need to align and there will be magic, but Pog hasn’t shown a weakness in the last 12 months other than the ITT in the Dauphine.
Totally!
Another factor is the: “Did Tadej race too much pre-TdF this year and may end up tired (or maybe he already is??)” vs “Did Jonas race enough this year” ?
For now, I see that Jonas IS in shape - and his confidence would be a hint, that he knows that…
He def needs in shape and very strong. A lot of improvement on his form at the Dauphine. Other than the horrible ITT he had, he hasn’t shown a crack.
Not Jonas, but Jorgensen. The only time anyone’s beaten a healthy Pogacar with a proper training leadup was when Visma were giving him the 1-2 with Roglic.
Eliminate the helpers, and then send Matteo up the road and see what everyone does.
This is where I am at. I’ve seen a very strong Jonas, no doubt, but holding a wheel is not the same as attacking it and dropping it. Until I see that, Pog has my vote on winning it.
Note: I also want Pog to win, I’m rooting for him.
Was it that bad really? At 10% more weight for Tadej, given they both can do 7.2w/kg for 20 mins on a long climb - Tadej would be able to put out 40-45w more on the flat ITT. Over 33 kms - that is easily a minute advantage for Tadej.
In terms of teams, it seems that Sepp has saved his energy. Maybe Wout is coming around too. I don’t know if you recall the performance of Visma on La Loze in 2020. It’s not the same Wout, but the guy can haul and they have Yates. But literally all that Tadej has to do is sit on Visma assuming Tadej is the top guy in the uphill TT. The game could be over if he opens up another 90 seconds there, but last purely uphill TT I think Jonas put almost 90 seconds on Tadej.
Yates should keep his powder dry on the ITT and just do an easy climbing day and lose more time so he is “allowed” to go up the road as he was on Bastille Day. Good to see his legs back at the Giro. I swear his first day “non performance” almost seemed fake so that he would lose a pile of time and allowed up the road by teams fighting for 2-10 position on GC
Tadej was unstoppable at the classics (generally) and that was Mar-April window. It seems that May should have been enough time to come out of that and do a build and then Dauphine to dust things off?
