The Official Ironman Lake Tahoe WEATHER thread

Triathlon Forum
1

We are 9 days out as of today, Friday, Sept. 13th. Here’s the current long-term forecast. I give this about a 5% accuracy:

Long term forecast as of Friday, 13th:

Models start to show differences in their solutions by late Thursday
into Friday. This is beyond the current forecast but bears
mentioning. Operational models all support a trough over the region
Friday. The European model (ecmwf) is dry and does not dig the trough as far south as
the Gem and GFS. The GFS is by far the coldest and both the GFS and
Gem are producing precipitation. This would be the first significant cool wet
weather for the season…but caution is advised as this is a long
way out and the models are notorious for flip-flopping on these
systems.

2

Tahoe had some heavy rain yesterday from thunderstorms.

All the forecasts show cold, like 30’s in the morning, so I am guessing 60 in the lake. Some have rain race day, others do not.

All I know is I am starting to collect all different types of clothing to be ready for whatever it becomes. Will have it all with me so I can decide
at the last moment what I am wearing.

The only thing that I said 14 months ago when I signed up for this race is if a cold front came through. After riding down Brockway a few times now,
if it were to rain, I just do not see how we could bike down it, with most of our brakes gone, safely. I guess I would walk down both times. :o(

Shall be interesting, just please do not rain.

.

3

Dave, is Brockway really that steep that your brakes would fail if they were wet? I did IMLP in 2008 in torrential all-day rains and we biked 112 miles in that shit. Just had to allow a bit more space (most of us did anyway), but the brakes still worked.

4

Dave, is Brockway really that steep that your brakes would fail if they were wet? I did IMLP in 2008 in torrential all-day rains and we biked 112 miles in that shit. Just had to allow a bit more space (most of us did anyway), but the brakes still worked.

Yep, Brockway is REAL steep and long. Like 8-10%, 3.5 miles. Folks get over 50 if they fly. With wind, it is real bad.

All I know is when I have got caught in the rain with my bike and having to go down steep hills, I lost like 90% of my braking. So, maybe I have bad brakes, but no way do I see them being the same as dry.

Even coming down from the Ritz could be worse since it is also steep and long, but lots of curves.

So, if you assume the course has to be safe for the worst folks on bikes, for liability, if I were the RD and it rained, I would change the bike course.

And if we get any big wind with this front, the swim could easily be at risk.

So, we all knew at this time of year in the mountains, anything might happen. We shall have a better idea in a few days, but cold at a minimum.

I was having a hard time keeping my bike down Brockway at 35 mph with hold my brakes as hard as I could. :o(

I am just mentally getting ready for anything. I have been to plenty of events where the weather changed the race, so would be nothing new.

What was the elevation at IMLP? Rain, wind at 7500 feet is very cold!!

.

5

LP is I think around 2,500 or 3,000 feet. It wasn’t cold particularly…in the high 60s. Definitely want to be prepared. Concern for being aero goes out the window in favor of comfort with me. Not out to break any speed records this time around.

6

I noticed the weather channel has sun, but highs in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s. the first day of autumn in the mountains, what the hell was I thinking 14 mos ago!

Too bad it wasn’t last weekend, my training visit was a chamber of commerce weekend minus a little smoke. We have no control at this point, so we can be prepared for the worst and know that the RD will make any necessary decisions come race day.

I remember June 2012 shivering in the rain and 40 degree weather in Boise getting ready for the swim and the RD adjusted the bike to avoid the cold wet conditions, I’m confident they will make any accommodations if necessary, but I hope not. It’s an awesome course and I’m looking forward to it.

7

I agree with you…Descending from the Ritz is far more gnarly than the relative straight shot from Brockway to KB…

Both descents can be done in the rain, provided the cyclist has good skills and uses their brakes. Bike brakes work fine in the rain, but just like a car, you have to know that everything works slower, so go slower and brake judiciously!

8

I hope not too! The one thing that I would bow to is if there were snow on the road. Don’t want to be cycling in the snow on a road bike! Other than that, I accept whatever we get.

9

I wonder what I am doing wrong with my brakes in the rain? The few times I have been caught up in the mountains and it opened up, coming down steep hills was very scarey since
I did not have the braking ability like when things were dry. Now, on Brockway, with it being dry, I was holding my brakes as hard as I could and could barely stay under 35.
And yep, going down Ritz at like 35 I just about lost it in one turn so boy do I plan to really slow down in these areas. What I am more concerned about are folks who have not ridden
the course, think they are superman, and take out others!

Is interesting one forecast is rain and the other is not. Bottom line a cold front is coming in. Just not sure how far south it will drop. Will have a better feeling in a few days
but cold at a minimum. Nothing so far implies snow but if it got too cold with water, then icing would be a possible issue.

Was interesting reading some of the other threads about it being cold. I would love to have those temps at our race day. At 6000 to 7500 feet, cold is much colder. :o(

.

10

The one thing that will be certain is, that any ST’er who posts after the race that they suffered in the cold should be hung drawn and quartered after all the warnings here…

Everyone should take as much cold/wet weather gear that they can. JUST…IN…CASE…!!!

11

I agree. I have done plenty of bike rides with the temps in the upper 20’s. I have the right gloves, etc. to be able to do it. Now, would I really want to put all that stuff on, NOPE!
BUT, I am going to bring it all with me, just in case, and decide on Sat or Sunday T1 what I put on. I would much rather be too warm, than COLD.

If anyone complains about the climbing and had not up graded their gears, no bitching.

Anyone who panic attacks in the swim, no bitching.

Anyone who walks the marathon, no bitching.

There has been plenty of input on how to probably maximize ones race on this course.

Will see how the drafting is since there are some fast flat stuff.

.

12

I agree. I have done plenty of bike rides with the temps in the upper 20’s. I have the right gloves, etc. to be able to do it. Now, would I really want to put all that stuff on, NOPE!
BUT, I am going to bring it all with me, just in case, and decide on Sat or Sunday T1 what I put on. I would much rather be too warm, than COLD.

If anyone complains about the climbing and had not up graded their gears, no bitching.

Anyone who panic attacks in the swim, no bitching.

Anyone who walks the marathon, no bitching.

There has been plenty of input on how to probably maximize ones race on this course.

Will see how the drafting is since there are some fast flat stuff.

.

I am actually quite excited for you as I know you have put a lot of work into getting ready for it.I hope everything goes well for you and if it doesn’t I hope you have the presence of mind to adjust your expectations and enjoy the day for what it is.pain and all.

13

I agree. I have done plenty of bike rides with the temps in the upper 20’s. I have the right gloves, etc. to be able to do it. Now, would I really want to put all that stuff on, NOPE!
BUT, I am going to bring it all with me, just in case, and decide on Sat or Sunday T1 what I put on. I would much rather be too warm, than COLD.

If anyone complains about the climbing and had not up graded their gears, no bitching.

Anyone who panic attacks in the swim, no bitching.

Anyone who walks the marathon, no bitching.

There has been plenty of input on how to probably maximize ones race on this course.

Will see how the drafting is since there are some fast flat stuff.

.

I’ll bitch all I want, thanks. :smiley:

14

weather forecasts (Accuweather and Weather Channel) look pretty good today. No rain and lots of sun. Cool weather for sure but I’m a bigger fan of cold than hot so you won’t hear me complaining!

It’s easy to get caught up in worrying about everything that could happen or go wrong. We’re all suseptible to that inpluse. I try to take solace in the fact that I’ve done so many of these things and I’ve put in so many hours of training that I really know what I’m doing. At the end of the day swimming, biking and running are relatively easy things to do and to do safely if one just stays in the moment–taking it one moment at a time–and one leaves one’s ego and expectations at the door.

Be grateful that we are blessed with our health enough so do even be able to do one of these. The challenges are what makes these things so memorable and rewarding. If it was easy I wouldn’t waste my time with it and I suspect in one way or the other, all of us STers are that way!

Can’t wait to get out there (Monday)–anyone know what the smoke from the fire is like?

15

Any rules that I don’t know about preventing us from wearing a full sleeve jersey on the bike? I know that would cover our number on our arms. Any funny restrictions?

16

Brockway isn’t that bad- certainly not 10% on lake side- and flattens out before reaching town where oh turn.

You guys signed up for a fall race in the mountains and are really surprised about the possibility of bad weather? It will be cold in the morning, count in it.

17

weather forecasts (Accuweather and Weather Channel) look pretty good today. No rain and lots of sun. Cool weather for sure but I’m a bigger fan of cold than hot so you won’t hear me complaining!

It’s easy to get caught up in worrying about everything that could happen or go wrong. We’re all suseptible to that inpluse. I try to take solace in the fact that I’ve done so many of these things and I’ve put in so many hours of training that I really know what I’m doing. At the end of the day swimming, biking and running are relatively easy things to do and to do safely if one just stays in the moment–taking it one moment at a time–and one leaves one’s ego and expectations at the door.

Be grateful that we are blessed with our health enough so do even be able to do one of these. The challenges are what makes these things so memorable and rewarding. If it was easy I wouldn’t waste my time with it and I suspect in one way or the other, all of us STers are that way!

Can’t wait to get out there (Monday)–anyone know what the smoke from the fire is like?

Great post

18

Sept. 14th update:
Friday and into next weekend…confidence is increasing that this
longwave trough will move inland across the western states and
bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the Sierra and western
Nevada. There remains disagreement amongst the 00z deterministic
models and 00z gefs as to the timing of this system. The GFS
continues to be faster than the European model (ecmwf) by 12-24 hours with precipitation
beginning across northeast California on Friday night. With
confidence increasing that this system will impact the region in
the day 7-8 period, increased probability of precipitation with this package beginning
on Friday afternoon with the best chances across northeast
California and in the Sierra north of Tahoe.

19

You can see the air quality from Truckee at

http://aqicn.org/city/california/nevada/truckee-firestation/

…

20

Keep an eye out for Bryan’s forecast (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe). Probably the best source around here. I emailed him late week and he thought cooler temps (60/30) but no precip. He’s going to try and post this week for the race.