Uli’s logic is just fine. If Lance could win the Tour de Suisse he would have won it today. His ego is large enough that he would not pass up winning this stage race again. Obviously he could not. There is no poker game going on. Don’t get me wrong, I want to see the old guy be a threat at the TdF, but he’s not going to be a threat for the win without being in the front pack on the mountain stages and in the “front pack” in the ITT in the June prep event.
When he was winning the TdF he was doing both at the Dauphine and Tour de Suisse (remember the 20K uphill TT in the 2004 Tour de Suisse that he won just before sealing up TdF number 6 on the Alpe d’Huez ITT).