Can Rasmussen put enough time into the rest of the field on the climbs to hold on with the help of his team in the flats and gut out a decent enough time trial to win it all? Would his team even try to support that? Menchov is about 3 minutes back.
Do you think he’s going to be allowed 6 or 7 minutes advantage again? I hope not.
He’ll have to take every second on a climb from now until Paris.
Unlikely.
I think that he could possibly do it if they ignore him because of his past tt abilities. In my mind, this team has done a perfect job thus far in the tour. Their captain Menchov is in good position 3 minutes back, and they have a good hold onthe yellow, and a great chance to keep it throughout the mountains…Before the race, who would have thought that team Astina would be sucking hind tit to Rabobank… Unlike Astina, they are letting a potential podium finisher, race his race, and not holding him back for a maybe/might be…Their manager and I think exactly alike, so of course I love their stragedy. I actually predcted the last stages stragedy to the tee. They now have two threats to the podium, and have forced all the other teams to be agressive… Boogard, Menchov, and the chicken can all climb well, and should be able to easily pace up the hard climbs. And if it gets dicey, like during the Lance years(down to 4 to 6 riders), I believe the chicken can cover that, and I believe when they get to the really steep climbs, he will be even better. He won on climbs that are more suited to the stronger climbers, but when it gets over 10 to 11%, that is where he shines… I really like this guy, he has great cycling smarts to go with his abilities, and still is a great team player…
Well, anything is possible. On paper, we would expect him to lose 4-5 minutes during each ITT. He already has 2+ mins on the field (excluding the T-mobile kid) but may need another 8 mins in the final mountain stages. The Pyrenees seem to be way more decisive this year and we could see some huge time gaps. I think a spot on the podium is a realistic goal and I would love to see him win. He is aggressive and races to win, I say GO Chicken! Do Slowtwichers have to root for only awesome TT’ers?
Dave in VA
I think it will make for some really good racing.
The Chicken attacks, the contenders try and put him back in the coup, over and over, until Menchov goes up the road with whoever’s left.
But Discovery will send Contador up the road too, and who will want to let that happen?
No, I don’t think so. I like Rasmussen, but don’t see him as a Tour winner. I put him top 10 overall, and climber’s jersey. Like last year. A Danish Virenque, if you will; but minus the 'tude and (hopefully) the juice. I think Valverde and Frank Schleck are the strong men of the race; both can climb and TT (advantage, though, to Schleck … because … well … he rides a Cervelo; and that’s a plus, eh : ) ). Too bad about Rogers … he was the third strong man in my triumverate. He’s young; he’ll be back. I’m digging this race because there is no clear favorite.
Rasmussen is obviously the best climber around, but god, O have never seen anyone look so effortless stnading on a climb as Contador, it really was cool to watch.
I think Rasmussen has a shot, as he said in his interview, there are no Lance or Jan type time trialers in the Tour this year. (Obviously there are the TT specialists like Cancellera, Zabriskie, etc, but they can’t climb and are out of it already).
Do Slowtwichers have to root for only awesome TT’ers?<<
No, but especially ones like Cancellara!
I hope the Chicken lays an egg. haha
Seriously–anyone but him. He bugs me for some reason.
The Chicken attacks, the contenders try and put him back in the coup, over and over, until Menchov goes up the road with whoever’s left. \
As manager of Rabobank, I would hold the chicken back, no reason to attack. Let him be defended as long as he shows strenght. He has a good team in the mountains, as good as anybodys as far as I can see, and if a big hitter takes off, he will have to get involved in the chase…He is a secret weapon for the team, and it will be a mistake for the other teams to ignore him because of his old tt’s. I will go out on a limb and say that if he is still in contention, he will ride much better than he did before, how could he not??? Crash 3 times instead of two??? And he probably now knows how to ride aero bars at least. I say he loses 3 to 4 minutes per 50k of tt’ing…
First off, the Michael Rodgers drama was crazy. What a rollercoaster.
Here’s what I saw for standings as of today:
Michael Rasmussen (Denmark) 39:37:42
Linus Gerdemann (Germany) +43
Iban Mayo (Spain) +2:39
Alejandro Valverde (Spain) +2:51
Andrey Kashechkin (Kazakhstan) +2:52
Cadel Evans (Australia) +2:53
Christophe Moreau (France) +3:06
lberto Contador (Spain) +3:10
Fraenk Schleck (Luxembourg) +3:14
Denis Menchov (Russia) +3:19
I follow the tour and some other sporadic events during the year, so other here are more in the know than I am. Last I saw Rasmussen in a TT, he was losing massive time and falling 2-3x. Gerdemann will keep slipping probably in later mountain stages. I don’t know if Mayo improved his TT’s, but he can keep doing well on the hills. As I understand it, the best remaining all-around’ers who do well in TT and mountains are Valverde, Evans, Moreau and Menchov, but I don’t know the overall skills of Kashechkin, Contador and Schleck, but correct me if I am wrong (do I really need to suggest that people correct me at ST? won’t that take care of itself?) To be honest, I am not trying to be Mr. TDF Knowledge here, but would rather like to know if I am wrong just so that I can have a better feel for the rest of the tour.
But he’ll have to take more time somewhere, right? So he’ll have to attack and get a lot more time in order to win.
He can’t settle for 30 or 40 seconds on a climb at the end of a stage.
I don’t think that he’ll get a lot of freedom again.
But he’ll have to take more time somewhere, right? So he’ll have to attack and get a lot more time in order to win. \\
He didn’t attack this time. He methodically rode everyone off his wheel… There are some brutal mountain stages left, and it will just depend on who survives them as to his stragedy. He can let a mayo or contador attack, and just go with him, he does’nt have to inatiate it. Believe me, there will be guys attacking all over the place, and like the last stage, favorites will get spit out. As long as he wears yellow, he can be a passanger until the end… WHat he has to do, is just be there every day at the finish. It should be some very small groups. If if comes down to the last mountain stage, and he is still stuck at a couple minutes, then he will have to open it up for all he is worth… I haven’t looked at all the finishes, but he can also gain time in the mountain top finishes. If he ends up being the strongest climber, what can anyone do if he takes off??? That would be my best bet for him to gain more pure time on everyone…
Everyone here is claiming they simply gave him freedom. Did they just “give” Michael Rodgers that freedom too? If he didn’t crash, then there is a good chance he would have been in Yellow too, and he was considered a major GC threat. Remember that Rodgers was in that last group and on great form when they were 6 minutes up. It would have been bad tactics to simply let Rodgers get the Yellow when he would have been a real threat to keep it until Paris. Since they let both Rodgers and Rasmussen go, I think that shows Rasmussen might be able to get away again…
Yes, they let him go…in the last climb, his lead shrunk quite a bit.
I doubt very much he will be able to take off again. Maybe gain a few seconds here and there, but Mayo, Valverde, Kloeden, Contador, look very comfie on the climbs…Kloeden is by far the best TTer of the lot.
Remember the '98 Tour? After Pantani got yellow, everyone was just thinking “nah, he won’t keep it, he won the Giro, yadda, yadda…”. Well, look at what happened.
The Police came, half the riders quit and it was the worst tour ever?
I love this thread, glad you could make it…I don’t know about comfy, but I grant they took a couple minutes back on a guy that spent the last 3 cat 1 climbs solo, and had to hammer the downhills by himself…He’s not superhuman, and since those climbs were not so steep, I would have expected that. I’m actually amazed that he got so much time on the entire group, after all his earlier efforts…Good move on his part just before the rest day…
Ok frenchie, now tell me why everyone hates Moreau so much?? It really looked personal out there, like the early Lance years… This guy actually has the form for a podium spot, but not if every team out there is working against him, what’s up with that???
Changed teams often, very prima donna, bashed others, ex-Festina rider…that’s my guess…
Who will win I have no idea… but I think that the yellow will go to Spain as for rasmussen I think he will end up in polka dot again.
I don’t know why Moreau’s gotta bullseye on his back.
But you’d be remiss if you didn’t note that the peleton wasn’t exactly flying up the climbs behind Rasmussen. I remember Zabel looking pretty comfy going up the mountains with the gruppo.