Has Lindemann said that she’s abandoning SC? After her Olympic gold. Still a weapon for LA28.
Has not raced a >2 hours draft illegal race sfaik.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/athlete/laura-lindemann
What’s funny about Knibb’s races at these distances the past few years. This is exactly what she used to do in all her domestic draft legal races when she was developing. To the point the federation would try and stack the odds against her so she would have to work harder for it vs always getting #1 race spot/decisions (no matter what the race location). Sudddenly her last few years at the nationals, she would always get the last race number to force her to get the worst starting spot so that in the “real” races when she wasn’t always #1 pontoon choice, she was going to have to to deal with real situations and tactics at the senior level…and yet she’d still turn every DL race into an solo non-draft (it became a worry from a federation standpoint because she would “lap out” more people than normal “front group” ability would) She’s been built for non-draft her whole life. This is her jam, and it’s only going to move to longer races. And again she’s already had a successful as hell ITU career, she’s already gotten the most medals of any US athlete. So your idea that she’s going to do min IM races between now and LA Games, just makes very little sense to me. All this dominance at middle distance to me is going to want her to in my opinion, only want more bites at the IM apple, especially with Kona this year. If she is successful there, what makes you think she’s going to then race min number of IM’s beyond that (isn’t that your “prediction” of how she can then stay an itu “weapon”)?
So your “forecast” of her racing schedule and my “forecast” of her 4 year race schedule pre LA basically are different. I’m actually with you, if she only races min IM’s between now and LA, no duh keep using her. But that isn’t what I think or see happening (can you explain why she would focus 2 years on IM and then come back for 2 years leaving IM behind to then come back to ITU…tha’ts your “plan” that you have now said twice…explain the logic behind that pathway please). I don’t understand why she would suddenly only race a few IM’s to then come back to ITU for what? Maybe a chance at being on a strong MTR team? That doesn’t seem to make a ton of logic when you are talking about Taylor Knibb at this point in her career. IMO itu will never be a “focus” from here on out. Now of course she will say publiclly that she doesn’t want to close a door on any racing. That’s smart, she’s smart as hell. But she’s also taken shots at usat publicly as well. And again individually, ITU is the worst setup for her, even worse when it’s what did she call it a “parking lot” race in LA (which is pretty accurate of what the 2 venues they have tried so far as low key course trials in earlier CC’s)? She even was almost sheepish about winning an medal in Paris in the PTN interview this week. Basically US only got a medal thanks to Wilde crashing out FRA. That doesn’t happen and her “weapon” of a relay leg doesn’t then get to be showcased. She would have been the CB relay leg (great finish but didn’t matter if you finish 4th).
So it’s basically- ITU is a caged bird for Knibb. She hates the politics of its she hates the shitty non-technical race courses that they continue to have. Long course is her jam, again we who have been around her since she started this sport at 14 years old knew that from the beginning. IM is and always was going to be her “destiny” so this idea that she’s going to keep only taking a small bite at the apple and continue to delay her “all in” of IM imo is a very foolish take, so she can come back to ITU?? lol, your not reading the room very well imo.
And if she truly only races a handful of IM races before LA Games and she has this monster of ITU events again, I’ll gladly say “you were right”. Whoever “AJAX” is, you will be the man? How’s that sound?
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Totally agree with you. I envisage her being “all in” for Kona for 2 years and then “all in” for cycling in LA.
She is 26 and will be 30 for LA. I can honestly see her maxing her earning potential those 4 years and then stepping away because she has achieved everything.
She is extremely intelligent and I can see her building a career in a completely different direction.
There’s this one thing though - and it’s the same thing that must’ve kept Vincent Luis from going long 4 years ago. It’s the home Olympics. And if Knibb is all about experiences (not literally all, but you get my drift), isn’t racing the home Olympics (whether you finish 1st, 4th or 10th) a tempting one - especially if they dump the parking lot bike course idea?
I think when you compare VL and Knibb, they are a good comparison but also not so good. VL imo doesn’t have the same non-draft outlook that Knibb has. VL also is a national celebrity in FRA. He was basically the face of FRA triathlon in the build up to Paris, whether he even made the final team or not, didn’t matter. Knibb is fortunate that none of her personal life gets in the papers and tabloids like has happened to VL. VL literally moved and lived in 3rd world Africa sleeping on dirt floors for a whole summer to get away from the drama.
So when you talk about “home Olympics”…Suddenly Cycling can step in and fill that void.
Realistically her biggest drama is basically going to be how does USAT pivot when Knibb rolls out of national team since she’s only going to race ITU sparingly now (if what she says is true). Ok so let’s build the toughest course in ITU so it is an incentive to keep her. So far, the 2 courses they’ve used as low key previews have been none like that. Thus her “parking lot” comments on will she / won’t she race tri in LA. Now in 2022 I was on the “inside” of hosting a world championship level event. There is a reason why countries host olympics and top world level events and then “showcase” the parts of the cities they want to. London is a shit course, we’ve seen it already play out like that, yet why did they ride around Big Ben and whatever else they did? Shocking that Paris made sure every picture basically had the Eifel Tower in all the backgrounds and the famous river was used…yet it’s not even open to public swimming because of how nasty it is LOL it makes no sense.
So if the course is “meh”, why would she “hold serve” on 4 years of her career for a sport that doesn’t even set herself up with the best chance of success? VL’s “alternatives” were not as good as Knibb’s alternatives are. VL basically went “all in” on ITU over a better fuller triathlon career. Coming to IM at age 35 with all his success and wear and tear on the body, he’s going to be limited by the amount of “success” he can have at non-draft. He’s not going to have 10 chances to win a IM WC, he’s going to have likely less than a half dozen chances at best, so it’s not like he’s going to come in and win every IM WC he enters, that’s just not realistic in the men’s game…too much depth and too many front pack athletes these days.
So this again is where federations are sorta forced to do federation things. By default they have to behave in their own best interest over the interest of the “athlete”, because at the end of the day the “athlete” never gets treated well overall, you pick X or Y always means 100% of the time they made the “wrong” decision. So if she moves on from national team + only race ITU sparingly, USAT is by default going to be forced to sorta “move on” as well from Knibb. Maybe she can come back and get a spot because I think the “cupboard is bare” but will only earn a spot basically by discretion (highly doubtful she can go race IM’s for 2-4 years and then come and drop an AQ in individual event at these “meh” race courses). And at that point, that’s when things can get “ugly” everything becomes a +/- against or for you as an athlete.
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We keep on hearing from @marcag (I think that he has heard from two (no less) IM World Champions that the only way to win is to race one to qualify and then Nice/Kona. And that’s what Lange did in 2017 and 2018, and indeed 2019 (DNF). In 2024 he was seduced to start 3 full distance and then went on to win IMWC. More or less the same for Frodeno (15 16 19). Ryf fluctuated between one and two plus IMWC. Sodaro = one (debut) LCb and Philipp = 0: just the IMWC.
We’ve seen how calculated Knibb is, guided by Lorang.
She’ll race just the one and then, next year Kona and in 2026 Nice (wouldn’t even have to validate in 2026 if she wins in 2025.
The only argument, on which which you seem to rely, is that she won’t be able to resist racing lots, and the only rationale for that I can think of is ‘getting experience’. I guess one could add she’d race two as part of an IM Pro Series campaign. She’s made a ton of money from T100 + 70.3 (O’side + Taupo) this year but Matthews has made more.
Keeping her options open by keeping SC ticking over will mean that if there looks like a competitive USA team for their home Olympics, she can step up and lend a hand. She’d need to be so motivated, sure. But “we’ll see”. Unlike Blummenfelt, for whom the individual was ‘the thing’ she can combine cycling and keep her super sprint distance eye in.
Some coaches seem to be content that the cookies are cut with different shapes.
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And this again is the “chess” that I frequently go back to. How many IM WC’s win on “fewer” IM’s, but have a wealth of knowledge/experience (that you allude to later in your post) to hold their hat on “i’ll race less now to be ready”.
Knibb is BEYOND calculated imo. She doens’t do shit on the fly of her pants, basically beyond that 1 Kona that she only did because so many things allowed her too. IE she AQ’d for Paris, so that then allowed her to do Kona “freely”. So as good as I think she’ll do at IM, she also has to “learn” about it, grow from racing experiences, so right now she’s very much in her “learning experience” phase when she goes to IM. And so that by default usually means you either have to race or train up for that much more than what a Lange prep would look like at his point in his career. She’s going to beast it absolutely, but she’s also sorta gotta go through the learning curve and that comes from racing more times than not.
Knibb plays up this whole “we’ll see” to the media, says ALL THE RIGHT THINGS ALL THE TIME, smiles at the camera, is the “perfect” athlete. Behind closed doors, there is nothing “we’ll see” about her training/racing/demands that she has on herself and her team.
So again by default she’s going to keep her options open. But if she does in fact move away from federation support and races ITU very infrequently, you have to understand why then the federation will sorta pivot. You can then understand why an athlete would “hate” on the federation in that instance as well. Again federations never can do the right thing. By default they are always the assholes.
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On her Breakfast with Bob interview she said she’d be doing WT[C]S races but when the discussion of the series being 10 months long (also a shot at PTO/T100) she was like…cough not doing Abu Dhabi need a rest. Even 70.3 Worlds wasn’t exactly on plan, but she said she was feeling good and responding to training. It seems like with Lorang things are less rigid as it relates to race schedule.
She wouldn’t commit to going all in on Pro Series, T100, or WTCS but that there would be races being done. So I bet she doesn’t take the contract for T100 and still gets called up as a Wild Card a few times. While also having a Kona focus. She also has enough World Tri points that she’s on every start list she enters and is not on a wait list.
Well the deadline to sign the T100 contracts is today so we should be hearing tomorrow who hasn’t accepted.