We saw this happen with Kanute pre Tokyo…If the team gets announced in 2018, he easily would have been on the team. But suddenly he added all these non-draft races and focus and suddenly his great splits were no better than 3-4 other Americans when for 2 years he was a true weapon.
A federation is going to do what a federation is going to do. If you open that door to not being a weapon and value to them, you will get a door shut in your face. We saw that w/ Kanute (that wasn’t as nasty as what seemed to go down w/ Norwegians vs NOR), we saw that with the messy “divorce” from Blu/Iden.
I get the whole going long thing can make one slow, but it is not impossible. And I dont think we can compare Taylor to anyone else really. Her advantage going back and forth could be that she is going to go for the olympic time trail and road race. So it is quite possible that she will still be the best biker in the sport, and by a margin in TT.
Swimming is swimming, if you are a front pack swimmer at 25, then you will be the same for the next 10 years, which Taylor has that box checked. So the only thing she really will have to train back is that mile run. She will of course have great endurance in 10k and up, so I dont think taking some time out in the olympic year and getting your mile pace back is that big of an ask.
of course she will have to do a few Itu races and get some sort of ranking, but dont see that as a problem, she doesnt have to win just some good placings…
I’d say it’s Cassandre. Olympic and World Champion. But it’s a bit silly to qualify this as ‘best triathlete’. Triathlon spans a lot of distances from SuperTri to Ironman that it doesn’t make sense to try to do this.
Yes Olympics favours a certain type of athlete but so does IM racing with its ridiculously imbalanced distances. Obviously it will never happen but I’d like to see a rethinking of the distances to actually make long course a real TRIathlon
We have some pretty good real world data and examples that showcase it’s not just how you describe it. Blu talks in the Rich Roll podcast about the swimming demands that he was “behind” in and he said that when he initially came back, he was 1 min back over 10km to the leaders. Yes it can be slightly different comparing it to MTR. Now squabble that point with the real world data if you must/want too. But the point is more that you are going to be a "different’ athlete. You don’t get to add all that endurance to yourself and just step back and have medal winning legs. So the more you add and move away from it, the harder it’s going to be to drop down. Again I don’t think this is an unearth shattering concept. Plenty of real world examples to show that it’s certainly making it harder on yourself. And generally in sport, you want to take the path of least resistance and/or best odds of doing something. But again if it’s just to say it’s possible cus your afraid to tell an athlete “no”…cool.
Not sure why you are comparing Blu’s swim with Taylors, he was a 2nd packer that worked his way to the back of the front pack. Taylor was a college miler in swimming, always been front pack, and if she decides to, can lead just about any swim out there without a Lucy in the race…Two completely different swimming triathlete pedigrees, so what he says happened to him is fine, just not applicable to Taylor…
And like I said and you ignored, she is planning on being in the games in cycling then too. If she has that kind of form once again, she will be a beast on the MTR once again on the bike and swim. I’m not saying she should, would, or could be a top ITU athlete while doing all the long stuff, but good enough to get points and be selected for the relay if that is her goal. I mean it may be that we just dont have the other 3 legs to go with her and it is all a moot point, that would be a decision for her to make once that landscape is more clear. No sense going for something that is bust from the gun, it is a team effort and requires a great team to be in contention…
Ok so the best triathelte is the one that does best over all distances so beaugrand has not done middle distance race
Beaugrand is the best short distance athlete 20024 for sure
derron is the only one that has a medal ad Oly games and t 100 with ironmn world champs is the next race that counts.
As we said last year knibb was clearly the best as the only one too do all three distances and do pretty well in all of them
This year derron is the best as she has done well in the race that counts most the Oly games
And also podiumed t100 series overall songarsly just one good race .
And it’s kind of between Mathews an d knibb for 2nd place
Well in alpine skiing ists very lear who is the best and it’s the one that wins the overall world cup that comprises all disciplines a d that you have a world cup winner for each discipline
So no to be the Bess triathlete you have to be good at least in short and middle distance or middle distance and long course
So I would say becgraud clearly is best short distance
Knibb clearly best middle distance
And it’s between Phillips and Mathewes for best long course
Overall I stick with derron as ily medal for short distance and medal at t 100 series.
That makes her the only athlete that was on podium at 2 different distances for most important races.
I too think Brooks is prisoner to his ‘once you go long you’re lost’ mantra.
From her interview, I can see Knibb racing cycling and tri, mixing SC, Oceanside and a couple of IMs, including one in October. A couple of SC will keep her ticking over and ranked for getting starts and that can be a pattern for 2025 and 26.
And looking forward to LA28, women are Legs 1 and 3, so Knibb would breakaway on the bike (in a way she can’t in an individual) run a decent mile, and give a hotshot USA male a start to finish it off for gold.
Well the messy divorce of blu and iden was because the fed wanted to take a cut from their sponsorship deals and wanted to centralize sponsoring so it was mostly financial nature.
Well we are at a stage where few can do two and there is nobody that can do short middle and long over a longer periode
So yes you can do short and middle or middle and long but
All 3 is extremely hard.
At the same time I do agree blu if done correctly could certainly have finished top 6 in Paris but there was no chance for him to medal as the run speed was just not there. And to be fair I would say even had he stayed in short course it’s unlikely he would have won a medal.
You are ignoring the fact that if she went 1st leg they would run her down and if she goes 3rd leg she would take over way behind the big guns.
There is 3 years and 8 months to go to LA so who knows what will happen. Cassandra and Emma L are going to get faster in the swim, there will be others coming through (especially Germany and France) and I can’t see Knibb keeping up with that speed if she isn’t focusing on ITU.
She wasn’t there this year and the LA course does her no favours at all. If she is saying she is excited by cycling TT she is giving a big hint to where her focus will be for LA.
There is no doubt she is a phenomenal athlete but I don’t think she can beat Cassandra over OD unless it is Kitzbull or something similar.
Also, if you look at her team around her they are predominantly LC experts. Dan Lorang and Julie Dibbens aren’t SC coaches!
And let me add, there seems to be this narrative from people that athlete’s can do anything they want. And absolutely but that is always going to come at a cost. As @pk put it, generally you can still mix in SC/mid training/racing and be successful, what’s been really really difficult is going long+SC (beyond a very short time period) and staying successful. And 1 olympic cycle is both “short” and a “long” time. Short in that generally it’s going to be hard to find world class talent from an “unknown” to a known, generally. For the most part most federations know who their expected power players are going to be, just as they know who their potential next next olympic power players if they get developed correctly (IE who is in the pipeline at lower levels and showing talent). It’s a long time because for an athlete like Knibb who has already experienced ITU and won medals, has just whipped T100 and nailed 70.3, the only next logical step is IM. And 3 years and 8 months can be filled with a bunch of IM’s that would very certainly impact an athlete’s short explosive ability. Why that is even being argued differently makes zero sense.
And so from a USAT standpoint, there’s not currently a ton of top level world class talent right now. They need/want Knibb, but their needs aren’t going to match what Knibb wants to do (again she’s already done 2 olympics, she’s “tired” of the politics likely) in order to be ready for LA Games. And Knibb has certainly gotten to the point where she should have the freedom to “move on” if she wants too. So we’ve already seen this play out. This has all the writing of Ben Kanute 2.0 all over again. I believe he never lost a medal when he raced as part of the team at world champs MTR, and yet they still went in other directions (and now they have 2 medals from the MTR in every MTR Olympics). But it was very clear his “dominance” at the MTR was no longer there when he had to move on to middle for self preseverance (he had to feed his family as he was MOP at individual and thus made zero money with ITU beyond basic federation funding). Chess not checkers.
So if your tellling me that Knibb is only going to race a few IM’s before LA which is what AJAX is saying, I’m not really sure why that’s going to be the case. She’s basically going to race ITU as basically as little as possible (not a priority). She’s already beast moded T100 and 70.3, LOGICALLY she’s going to move to IM racing more and more this cycle. She is setup to dominant that, she as you put it, already has the “team” to put her in a position to crush it. And people are really saying she’s going to race IM rarely these next 4 years, riiiiighhttt. She just took her 1st bite of the apple at last Kona in '23, to think she’s not motivated as fuck to crush IM, would imo be a very foolish take.
I am not suggesting Knibb can stay competitive in SC individual.
I think it’s entirely reasonable with her special strengths to be a superb member of USA’s 2028 home Olympic MTR team (and yes that would be one of 3 places (which would need to be earned btw, so thank you GJ)). And ‘yes’ you could say that’s a sorry state of affairs but a combined reflection of the talent in the pipeline, and Knibb’s one off capabilities to make an impact in MTR (Leg 3), which will only get stronger with her cycling ‘activities’.
You mention the “developmental pipeline”. Have you some names of the USA ‘young does’ that will be a better bet than Knibb for Leg 3 MTR? Any of them run sub 16 minutes for 5km after a blow dry. WorldTri website has stymied my efforts to look for the star U23s and their run times.
"there is ZERO chance she only does a couple of IMs between now and LA. "
Not what I said: “I can see Knibb racing cycling and tri, mixing SC, Oceanside and a couple of IMs, including one in October. A couple of SC will keep her ticking over and ranked for getting starts and that can be a pattern for 2025 and 26”.
Keeping the WTCS ticking over will keep her in the #140 ranking picture for '28.
We have heard from several (@marcag is the most vocal I think) that to be successful at IMWC an athlete needs to focus. So I think it entirely likely that next year Knibb will race an IM to Q and then the IMWC. And other races she wants to subordinate to the main season goal (which may be some T100s btw but not the full whack).
From now to IMWC 2027 (October wherever). Then switch fire to SC in prep for LA and be a key member of the US team (and maybe US Cycling team too (stretch target)). Entirely doable. And indeed, as IM World Champion 2027 wouldn’t have to validate in 2028 and could swing from West Coast to Nice for the 2028 IMWC that September.
"She’s not going to use the 2 70.3 gets you WC IM pathway. "
You’ve been away, Brooks. Doesn’t exist.
But your trying to showcase a pathway to both. And that’s fine. I’m basically saying the complete opposite and none of this has happened.
But if your trying to say she’s only going to race a few IM’s in the next few years and then transition back to SC for LA Games, I’ll just say I disagree with that and that’s all that needs to be said.
While Knibb doesn’t want to “close a door” on anything I certainly don’t think she’s not going to go move “all in” on IM between now and the summer of 2028. And FFS, I’ve said that she can clearly be a member of the team if it’s based on no one else being good enough to push her out. What I’ve SAID is that her “MTR weapon” of 2024 will be gone by 2028 if she truly goes into IM racing/training mode the next 3.5 years. Very likely with the swim and run most surely. Tthe “effort” to come back to those specific needs are much more than monty’s “swimming is swimming” mantra.
So you see her pathway as this 2 year “IM” period and then 2 year back to ITU period. I don’t see her doing that. I see her pretty much going more into IM for the rest of her career and still doing odd races that she wants to. If that means she’s still good enough to make a what I think is “weaker” USA team (current projections for 2028), cool. But if you think that pathway is going to lead to MTR medal worthy or top MTR split that is a game changer in the race, we’ll just agree to disagree.
If you are talking what matches better for the demands of competition, yes.
Going into IM and then racing the iTT (and then potentially RR because it basically takes up an “auto” spot) or going into IM and then racing the MTR. Now obviously if she continues down the non-draft pathway, she’s still going to run into the same issue of…why do the RR when you don’t really prepare for it. But if triathlon isn’t an option and the iTT is her jam, does she suddenly sneak into a few crit/RR’s to then solve the problem? We don’t know.
So do I think if she makes iTT in LA she races the RR this time around. Absolutely.
Do I think she makes the USAT team in LA Games if she truly goes down this “full time” IM / LC non-draft pathway that I forecast or see her doing and only occassionally does an WTCS event?
No I don’t think she makes the team in that instance. She a) wouldn’t AQ, which would then force her to go more into ITU to try and make the team for the build up (which them limits her schedule and Olympic build up entirely and
b) if she only does ITU in a half measured attempt the next Olympic cycle, I think your setting yourself up for a federation to say “ok cool, we can’t count on you, so we move on”. See Ben Kanute. Kanute opened that door when he stopped having clear cut dominating MTR relay leg performances. Go back and look at it and you can clearly see others rising to the occassion and him sorta flat lining. Would Kanute have still been a good choice. I absolutely think so. But it was clear as day that he was no longer a “lock” to be on MTR team. You could literally see it happening in almost real time. He went from “easily on the team” in 2016-2017, to “wait is he not getting better” to 2018-2019, to “well we have 3 guys who can do his split now” in 2019-2020 and then of course he didn’t get picked. Again if he gets picked, cool. He was going to be able to hold his own, but he was no longer a weapon with his ability. And I think you want difference makers in order to win medals, or better your chance at winning medals. If you all think Knibb can do whatever she wants and keep that status in 4 years, by all means please let’s do that. I just don’t think that’s possible with the route that I think she’s going to end up doing with her training/racing career over the next 4 years.
Of course Dan lorang is a short course coach he was after all short course national coach his first athlete Anne Haug was a short course athlete …
Half the German relay in Paris was somehow coached by Dan .
Wasn’t that because of his work with the German federation?
Lindemann is now LC but I don’t know the others. LCB, Annie Haug, Jan Frodeno are/were all LC and now Knibb who I assume is focussing LC for at least 2 years.
If she does well at Kona 2025 I can’t see her coming back for LA. She has the 2 Olympic medals and she has said multiple times that she can’t be successful on the LA course. She won 75k yesterday plus whatever bonus she qualified for, 200k at T100, she can’t wind that amount at ITU.
