I think what we say this year is that anyone doing WC can be toast after that.
So if you assume that will be the case, and they make the contracts such that being competitive in all races is critical for financial benefit, then it becomes T100 could be “not that lucrative” and “very constricting”.
She is a contender for Kona. It will be interesting. That is one decision I bet will be well thought through.
I suggest the decision of the following WPro athletes “will be well thought through”:
(PTO Ranking order)
Knibb
Matthews
Philipp
LCB
NB All “contenders” for IMWC (Kona).
Think the chances of Haug, Jewett or Sodaro signing are nil (they’ll get offers).
Not taking either a T100 contract nor planning to go for the IM Pro Series risks a serious reduction in earnings. Are these professional athletes or not?
A mindless(ish) fascination for winning the IMWC is high risk (especially if an athlete can already call herself a ‘World Champion’).
“Toast”? We’ve seen Matthews prosper with a #2/#4(tour)/#2, and both she and Philipp racing the same number of races (9). Knibb raced more (though several <2 hour ones). Chevalier raced 8 and had his best ever result at Kona.
I have heard this from 2 IM World champions “Winning Kona changes your life”
Winning T100 won’t.
Pro Series is not incompatible with IMWC. Most athletes have to do 2 IMs anyways, they can have IMWC as plan A and pro series as plan B. They are complementary. T100 is not.
https://www.trirating.com/deep-dive-into-the-2023-triathlon-money-list/
This year Knibb has done well in T100 (?$410k) and from Ironman (?$83k) and a bit from WTCS/Olys and the number of $25k wins in T100 has been limited by her SC exploits/priority. Next year $500k from the PTO seems within reach.
A win at IMWC gets an athlete $125k but “changes your life forever”. But if you are alreadya LD world champion (Haug, Sodaro, Philipp, LCB) then that change has already been ticked, no?
And Knibb, already the World Champion in Long Distance Tour 2024 will win several IMWCs in the next ten years: no hurry. Harvest the T100 money with a key added bonus:
You will race the best athletes in the sport (>2 hours) multiple times and have fun so doing. As opposed to choosing an IM; a one or two other top tens, and repeat, and then race IMWC (for the only competitive race of the year).
Marbella does suit Knibb/Philipp/Haug though: less so LCB.
You sure they will get (or have gotten) offers? Haug and Sodaro didn’t fulfil their contracts (Haug didn’t pretend to try; Sodaro pretended a bit but her starts speak for themselves) and Jewett tried like a champ but struggled and hated the whole thing.
I suggest we ask Patrick Lange 
Kona / Nice WC win might get you 125k in prize money, but it’s estimated to give you around 1m from all sources, mostly sponsor bonuses.
Great to see his comeback. But he doesn’t seem to be able to perform at 70.3, so his decision not to sign T100 for 2024 is a straightforward choice to make.
What is the question you’d ask Lange?
Would you get a similar answer from LCB? Or Ryf (if asked 12 months ago).
I would ask him the question you asked
“But if you are alreadya LD world champion (Haug, Sodaro, Philipp, LCB) then that change has already been ticked, no?”
Jus because they like the money doesn’t mean they like the amount of travel. It has been mentioned by numerous pros on social media.
Compress the tour length and you get an off-season. Knibb talked about how a 10 month series (WTCS and PTO) just didn’t work for her. Yeah, she won T100 and now 70.3 Worlds. That doesn’t mean she appreciates the setup.
The bankaccount changes after every win more than any other race or series .The triple crown back in the day prob the only thing that worked similarly for ryf.
I was made aware of a good size endemic sponsorship. They came to the table. “The candidate must be a IM World Champion” (not necessarily reigning).
Is 70.3 WC enough ? NO
T100 World Champion ? NO
IM Pro series ? NO
ITU/WTC whatever they call themselves World Long distance champion ? NO
I refer the honourable member (while waiting for the start) to Dylan’s song involving ‘Times’ and ‘Change’.
7 years the least
Unless you think at some stage people will believe shorter than a half ironman is long distance Tri …
And you believe a half marathon will ever become bigger than London Berlin Boston marathon…
Trevor’s problem is the same problem Sam Long has. He has to figure out a competitive swim, or he’s coming from behind each race.
Please don’t hold your breath. As I said upthread, we will not be hearing, unless individual athletes share that.
Last year there was a ‘big reveal’ played out over SM for 10 days 18-28 January.
I anticipate a number may say: if you want the answer today it’s ‘no’ but if you give me a few more days (to get home after Taupo for some) then I may.
PTO can manage this by sending out the next tranche of contracts: 11-16 and four hotshots. Then manage a few more (from their short list) as the rejections are clearer.
SC athletes (maybe ex, maybe not) sure to get contracts are: Knibb, Derron, Duffy, Spivey.
I’d still be interested in seeing others’ nominations for female hot shots besides Taylor-Brown. Last year the only athlete offered such a contract who had not yet proved they could manage a draft illegal 4 hour race was Spivey. And she was of an age where she was ‘bound’ to go long after Paris (or before if she didn’t get selection).
Maybe Miessner? I rather think Philipp (and Haug) will say ‘no’ so Pohle may be the only German WPro signing a T100 contract.
Derron, Knibb and Duffy have earned gold contracts by finishing top 10. Spivey did not earn an automatic contract and is down the list for a roll down. Currently ranked 20th but likely to slip from 20th to 21st on PTO rankings as Ellie Salthouse’s IM 70.3 results propels her into the top 20 on rankings.
Not to speak of Ajax’s behalf, but the PTO can give a “roll down” contract to anyone they like, basically. PTO rankings are just one of the guidelines so it’s not a roll down. Plus then you’ve got the hot shot offers which Spivey would be all but certain to get if she doesn’t make the cut in the “11 to 16” process (which I think she will).
I know all of that… the language allows for the PTO to pick whoever they want, though I can see them honoring the roll down process. And yes, they could offer Spivey another “hot shot” contract… along with athletes like GTB, maybe Maya Kingma, Jess Learmonth and perhaps someone like Lena Meissner… but also perhaps someone like Holly Lawrence who performed well in Miami last year but then was out on maternity leave the rest of the season.
Yes, I said: “sure to get contracts” and Spivey is sure to be offered a contract (analysis of PTO Rankings plus outstanding performances) and a Olympic silver plus #21 meets that criterion. PTO will not ‘waste’ a hot shot on Spivey: I think the annual amount for those contracts is less than 11-16, btw, and gold are more, rightly so.
Think Kingma is a possible. I can’t see Learmonth being able to compete. She’s a character but Tokyo is now a while away and her draft illegal race results have been rather variable.
Think Lawrence, if she wants to race T100, will likely be as a wildcard, to see how she is. A contract commits the athlete to at least 7 races: April - November, which would be hard. For justification, I could see the PTO invoke her ranking as at mid March and her outstanding #3 in Miami.
Meissner a possible, as said.