Probably not, but that’s because there’s an unsurprising pattern that current (and past) best middle distance athletes have graduated through elite SC (Ryf, Frodeno, Iden).
However I’d point out that Laidlow and Ditlev (both winners this season) are not from that cohort and Keulen isn’t (depends on how you want to define 'successful ‘ITU’/Olympic athlete). Nor are (#2) LCB, Simmonds, Matthews, Long and Bogen: latter with Smith came reil close in SF. Smith (podiums) a few lacklustre SC seasons. Keulen did a few SC with minimal success.
May I enquire what deduction(s) you draw from that prediction?
That Knibb, Gentle, Derron and Van Riel are the best in 2024 and likely joined by at least two more SC medalists fresh from Paris, and Duffy and Spivey might improve . . . and . . the top long distance athletes prioritise their IM/Roth races ahead of T100 (Lange, RvB, Ditlev, Philipp, Matthews, Sodaro (LCB even).
Juniors (up to 19 years of age) race Sprint distance as their longest. Which is why, unless you’re Alistair Brownlee or some other exceptions, it often takes a few years for them to transition from junior to elite and do well at the Olympic distance.
If Wilde or Bergere race T100, i’d say they are very likely to win SEVERAL races.
Bergere is a better swimmer than MVR, they are both better bikers and Wilde (and maybe Leo) are better runners. Plus, they have already raced and won 70.3 races. Vincent Luis is also likely to race. Heck, even Pierre Le Corre has won an ITU world championship in Samorin in 2022 and he turned 34 so he will not stick till LA '28
Michel who I suggest is a Olympian who has said she’ll be stepping up next year (and is on my short list for a ‘hot shot’ T100 slot) is going well in Indian Wells.
Shadowed by Ackerlund.
Pearson burned brightly for 30 miles on the bike but has dropped off 3 minutes, but with his wicked run, all he has to do is a 1:07.
McElroy hanging in there (behind the Norwegian duo).
@realbdeal racing (in #21 with 10 miles to go on the bike)
@dcpinsonn racing, bit further back.
Pieter Heemeryck has, according to this facebook-profile, officially signed a contract with T100 for 2025.
Has anyone else confirmed their contracts?
The athletes who finished top ten in the Tour received their ‘gold’ contracts after Dubai and invited to sign by 20 December.
The final 2024 PTO Rankings will be complete after Taupo and the PTO will then (ie by 20 December) know how many slots they have for the (say) 8-16 contracts (assumes 3 athletes in that top ten don’t sign. And can get those contracts ‘in the post’ and some hot shot ones too (informed by Bahrain/Busso/IW/Taupo results).
We’ve seen some mixed messages from several of the top athletes on this.
Knibb was very non-committal in her PTN interview, also suggesting she wanted to continue to race some WTCS races alongside any long course races, which needed to include an IM to get IMWCQ and then the IMWC (Kona). If she signs for 8 T100 races that will be way more than she wants/can do. And she strikes me as an athlete (and her team) who would not want to be cornered into a framework effectively constraining her freedom. I think it very likely she will not sign.
Matthews, headed for #1 in the IM Pro Series, #4 in the T100 Tour, #2 in IMWC and top few on Saturday, said in her Triathlete interview (article Jordan Blanco) that she was “committed to another T100 season” plus the IMWC in October. But in the PTN interview she suggested this was still tbd. Can’t help think IRONMAN would make an effort ($$ up front?) to persuade her to campaign another IM Pro Series in 2025. And she’d go into that as a favourite: none of the other top women are capable at both full and middle distance and have the endurance for a full season. If an athlete has to race an IM and IMWC, ‘just’ one more IM and a couple of 70.3s is a perfectly reasonable season: less races than many full distance Pros complete annually.
Women who will sign: Findlay, Simmonds, Byram, Gentle, Lee, Duffy, Spivey, EPB, Pohle Note these athletes are all (broadly) middle distance only (latter three in 11-16 cohort).
Those who may not (in addition to Knibb and Matthews, some for reasons similar to the dilemma described above): Derron, Philipp, LCB, Haug, Jewett
Are there any guys expected not to sign?
Of the ten, Race Ranger investor Brownlee won’t sign (obv).
I imagine Ditlev has a similar dilemma to Knibb and Matthews. Among those racing T100 this year he is the most capable of winning the IM Pro Series ($200k) but assume will be put off by the Norges’ stated plans. He will want to race Roth, so an IM Series is less attractive (because that’d then be 4 full distance (March - September)).
Otherwise I think the other 8 will sign the ‘gold’ contracts offered.
Just outside Tour top 10, Laidlow is certain of a 11-16 contract offer. Think we heard him say at Dubai he was minded not to contract to T100 next year.
However Noodt will surely sign (PTO ranked #5) as will Geens (PTO ranked #14).
RvB - didn’t have any happy 100km races: he could go IM Pro Series.
I expect Nieschlag (PTO ranked #20) will be offered an 11-16 contract and sign.
Sanders will be in the frame (PTO ranked #21) but he’s too much of a home boy/father (and free/not free spirit) to sign, especially a lower tier/$$ contract.
Plenty of SC (2024) athletes queuing up for those ‘outstanding performance’ or hot shot contracts.
Some excellent observations. Dang, wouldn’t they make ST happy by signing a “package deal” with the developing swimmers group of Sanders, Long and Chevalier!
Interesting thought on the women’s side but, in their Breakfast with Bob interviews, both Tamara Jewett and Ellie Salthouse said that they were planning on doing their first IM distance race next year. They were both non-committal to chasing the pro-series points (“wait and see” was the approach), but wanted to qualify for Kona and then take it from there if they had a good IM. Both noted that their IMs would be early season with the hint that a 2/3rd IM could be fit into the schedule if all goes well.
I could be wrong, but I got the impression that they’re both not likely to chase T100 wildcards next year (Though Jewett is still 15th and Salthouse could easily move into the top 16 with a good Taupo result this weekend) - the T100 didn’t really suit either of them.
ya I figure Luis, Bergere, Nener, maybe GTB will get offers. It is that cohort that will keep this series interesting, fun, and super competitive if some of the big names opt out. And as you say, I expect several more to jump(or take a break) from ITU in this off olympic year and make hay while the sun shines…I wonder if the two Aussie men who went to the games are pissed enough at their federation and just say fuck it, time to move on to greener pastures…
Difficult to follow that path/option (IM for a KQ and then slot in another IM Pro Series one in in the summer).
If they choose an IM Pro Series Ironman, it will be stacked (IMSA or IM Texas) and quite likely they won’t get a KQ. If otoh, they choose a non-Series IM, KQ will be ‘easier’ but ‘every second doesn’t count’.
I don’t think it’s a recipe for success to approach the IM Pro Series with a “wait and see” mentality: see the WPRO athletes at the sharp end this year (and btw Dr Berry is odds on for #4).
Salthouse could rise in the PTO rankings (currently #22) on Saturday, but she’d need a top 10: #10 (estimate obv) would lift her 2 places to #20. Was #13 in Lahti with a sub-par (for her) race.
Nevertheless, there are half a dozen athletes ahead of her in the rankings who (I expect) will either not be offered a contract or not sign, so I expect both to be offered contracts.
Based on Jewett’s year and comments - I don’t see her racing the T100 series. I don’t think she liked it one bit. She might get the offer but I suspect she’s going to race for joy and I truly hope she finds it because she’s tremendous to watch when she’s engaged!
Nener, why on earth would he get an offer? his one and only 70.3 was a show he is no where near ready to be competitive.
I can’t see either of those Aussie guys moving longer yet, neither have had great bike strength shown and are likely still being funded pretty well. While they are still getting ITU results, I think they wouldn’t change.
After his reactiin at the grand final race I am wondering if Long will sign again, thoughts or insights anyone?
He was sick… Pointy end of swim and solid front pack run, like many others just has to dial in time trialing. I know a lot of folks say Hauser is crap on the bike, but that is just made up. He often is the hammer in ITU breaks and has his nose in the wind a lot in super league races, where there are some really top cyclists who have made the jump. Just a question of motivation at this point, does he want to do another 4 years again for a crap shoot?? He has gotten his run down to really close to the top ITU guys, and of course he would lead most swims in any race.
The fact there is no triathlon in 2026 Comm Games may make them switch sooner, but I dont see Hauser jumping yet. He hasn’t achieved his Olympic medal yet. Luke after many years, has only just this last season been achieving decent result’s, I would also be surprised if he would quit while ahead.
Agreed. The Aussie short courser to watch re. the T100 is probably Jake Birtwistle. He just did a couple of middle distance races and has potential I think.
Agreed, his social stories have showed him sick (think maybe covid)since/during WA. Strava showed he had been doing some good rides with Tas cyclist Porte in the lead up. Will be watching.
Agree, most of the middle distance specialist will sign and I think it would be silly not too
However PF mentioned in one of her TTL podcast that she is sitting on the fence. She said it was hard to get excited for some of the T100 races as she would earn as much winning a St George or Tremblant vs finishing 6th or 7th in a T100. I assumed that includes bonus dollars.
Well some athletes get more excited about racing than others. I get the impression (eg from TTL) that she loves training just as much, but racing and results are a necessary sine qua non.
Findlay has been racing SC and MD for a very long time, with stellar early achievements and
If you’re a top athlete you want to race the rest of the best. The T100 Tour offers that opportunity half a dozen times a year, in a variety of venues, courses and environments. With wrap-around support and all-found for the week of each race.
Findlay made about $150k from the T100 tour and reasonable to expect about the same, on balance, if she signs up for 2025.
This year she’s likely to get a PTO bonus from her ranking of $45k. Her ranking would be mid-teens next year if she doesn’t race T100 (so $17k, say).
Winning St George (if she can) makes $12k (plus as you say any bonus). No Pros next year at MT. Oceanside and Eagleman win both = $7.5k.
She has no IM Pro Series road to roll.
You (and she and Eric) can do the math, and balance that against getting “excited” about racing a few A- listers through Camp Pendleton and/or up Snow Canyon.