Whats Beth Potters plans? Shes 32, can’t see her in LA, she’d be an interesting addition to T100.
She’s been an exceptional short course triathlete, but I heavily doubt her ability to compete in middle or long distance. The reason being the bike leg.
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Whats wrong with her bike?
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Her bike is too weak to be competitive in a middle or long distance triathlon.
And we know that from… ?
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Are we going to start writing off any females LD career who’s hasn’t got Knibbs bike?
How was Gentles bike when she moved up from SC? Potter hasn’t got a weak bike, she probably will when she moves up, but who knows she might transition well into TT.
You highlight an issue it’d be really useful to get a handle on.
@Michal_CH which female SC athletes (in the top 30 WTCS rankings say) from the way they ride in SC do you think ARE strong enough to be “competitive” (once they’ve got sorted on a TT bike and running off it)?
We saw Coldwell at T100 London racing pretty well on very few sessions on her S-works, thobut she was known for being super strong on the bike.
And Waugh went well in Phuket no-draft and is always up the front in SC too.
GTB rode pretty well in Bahrain, though minutes slower than Buckingham and Matthews the year before: but ‘twas her first go.
We’ve seen Loevseth ride OK (and will see her in Taupo).
Knibb, Duffy no longer SC. Spivey will surely get better and also ‘no longer SC’.
Kingma’s always been strong.
Some of the Germans? Meißner has dabbled. Neubert went well: tho’ young she may look at the Gerwomen ahead of her and reckon she’s on a loser staying SC. Have to think Lindemann and Lehair would be good.
Michel and Betto are getting on.
Kasper strong but I wonder how her run would stand up.
The ‘hot shots’ for 2025 have to come from this cohort: SC top end for whom the time has come to step up to the hard stuff.
Apart from Knibb and Alistair, I can’t really think of any uber biker SC that has carried their bike straight over with them to long. Duffy is struggling, even Spirig seemed to struggle.
On the flip side, whos had a weak/average bike, thats improved when they’ve moved up from SC to LC?
Let’s be clear: I’m not writing anybody off. I’m expressing my opinions. PTO leadership will decide.
If I were to categorize and name outliers WTCS WPRO for the middle- and long-course:
- underperforming (to the current WTCS-proven potential) would be: Beth, Cassandre, Gwen
- overperforming (to the current WTCS-proven potential) would be: GTB, Lena Meissner, Flora, Knibb
Similarly, I don’t expect Alex Yee or Matt Hauser to do well in middle- and long-course, but definitely Vincent, Leo, Stornes. Hayden is top class in WTCS and I expect him to match it in middle- (immediately) and long-course (some day).
Remember, all is relative to recent WTCS record.
During her ITU career, Gentle much like Spirig, was famous for coming out of the swim a minute or so down and then towing a whole contingent up to the front group. So yes, she already had a very good bike back in her ITU days.
She wasn’t that famous for doing it, cos I don’t remember her bike anywhere near Spirigs, mayeb she had a good bike, again she can’t have been that famous for it, cos I don’t remember.
You’re a bit of a short timer around here so perhaps before your time;)
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so what about van riel the norwegiens funk nood geens bergere kanute did well , nieschlag. nieschlag is even a funded short course athetle for 2025 what aobut laidlow who comes from shortcourse.
what aobut hellriegel who put 13 en miunutes in mark alana on the bike.
lets see who where the top 3 ironman cyclists …ryf badman wellington they were all short course
derron neubert gtb
fullagar would be a good one with her experience at tandem guiding ie tt expereince . nina eim i would say would do well
spiriig used a road bike and when derron uses a rode bike she tends to bet beaten by her team mate on a tt bike, but when derron is on a tt bike she does fine.
caroline pohle comes form short course and is doing just fine
duffy is really an intersting one as it does take longer than most would have thought but then she was also injured for more than a year and is not at her best yet and i would not worry about her next year and i am sure she will challenge knibb for overall wins next year . she is just a class athelte.
the ones that likely would not do well jorgenson is the obovious one binnca sergini would be another one as she regularly gets dropped from the lead group
lombardi and perioult beaugrand klamer and koch would likely struggle as well as on the smaller side overall one could say the french females seem to cycle a bit to little but then usually they have the swim and run nailled .
and kingma would be a class act on the bike at t100 on a technical course she would stick with knibb .
Id completely forgot about the Norwegians, they definitely transitioned well, along with MVR also.
List of blokes. Plenty (and Van Riel, Geens, Neishlag will get contract offers). The issue is four women who might merit ‘hot shot’ status / contract offer.
Noone (I don’t think) is suggesting that a number of successful women haven’t come from SC (Ryf, Knibb, Gentle, Findlay, Lawrence, Spirig dabbled and was excellent, Haug, sticking to modern era here and top SC / top LC). Mesdames Charles-Barclay, Philipp, Matthews never elite SC (and Sodaro is a marginal with a one and done SC, swapping across from track).
Ex-SC Knibb, Derron, Gentle, Duffy have ‘AQd’ along with the other 6 ‘golds’.
Pohle will get a 11-16 contract offer, and if those don’t roll down to Spivey, she will get a ‘hot shot’ slot.
So who are your female ‘hot shots’ @pk ? GTB, Neubert, Fullagar, Eim, ? (Excludes athletes who will get a gold or an 11-16 offer.)
Fullagar and Eim have only ever raced SC and are totally untested/proven. Neither will get an offer.
She said in an interview LA was in her plans.
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Fair play to her, she’ll be 36 by then, she’s came a remarkably long way in a short space of time as a Triathlete so I certainly wouldn’t write her off as being competitive in four years.
I haven’t seen anyone mention Julie Derron here. She literally jumped out of the olympic games into T100 and had instant success. she did not ride the panties off the field, but she held steady and got faster each race, keeping herself in contention for the win on her run.
I expect with a full off season and perhaps her move up, she will be even more competitive with everyone not named Knibb on the bike…
I didn’t mention Julie, because she’s not an over- / under-performing athlete for me when we compare short course and middle course. She got silver in Paris and she’ll keep being top3 in middle distance, so kind of top to top switch. She doesn’t know me, but we sometimes swim in the same pool in Zurich - I have high hopes for her future career 
Btw. for the same reason I didn’t mention MvR, although he’s better in middle than in short (someone like Taylor Knibb). But both are a done deal - top of the series.
I think the goal posts got shifted slightly, my original point was uber bikers bikes in SC who had transitioned well into long course bikers straight away.
I think everyone’s been surprised by Duffy (probably even herself) she must be on her 5/6 MD race just gone and still struggling to adapt.
I seen people blaming her age and injuries, but she still managed the fastest run split!