20:00; 2:00; 1:10 = 3:30 and that’s without transitions. I think sub 3:40 would be the more realistic time. I don’t think anyone has gone under 3:40. Crowie went 3:45 or so at Clearwater last year.
If it could it will be done on the bike… What was that split Bjorn put down in Florida? The average speed on the bike was boggling. The fastest Tour TT average is over 34 mph I think (Zabriske?). If we see bike splits like that combined with world-class running it is possible.
This reminds me of the “dream relays” from previous years where a world class athlete in each discipline does their leg in a relay triathlon. Those are interesting- they never seem to produce remarkable results.
Easily … all you have to do is get some ITU people to measure the course … remember a few years back when they screwed up the women’s race and the run was only about 7.5 or 8k?
Thanks Tom…so you’'re saying that if someone rides like Zabriskie and runs like Tergat, and swims ok, we should see it…that’s really a scoop you have here
i think you could trim a tiny bit of fat from that bike split…but you’d need perfect conditions (road, weather), possibly a point-to-point with favourable winds. fwiw, Andrew Johns went 3:38 flat at Antwerp last year as discussed in a thread yesterday. of course, say what you will about the accuracy of the course…
If we use these splits, which seem pretty balanced, that breaks down to:
1 min/100 meters on the swim
28 mph or ~45kmh on the bike
5:20/mile or 3:20/km run
As you said, this doesn’t even include transitions. I really doubt there’s an athlete capable of maintaining that kind of speed for that long of a race, especially if the course is even slightly challenging. In last year’s Lifetime Fitness (non-drafting) Triathlon, Hunter Kemper - a top ITU guy - had these average speeds:
1:12/100 m swim
26.3 mph bike
5:15/mile run
This was an Olympic distance race. I can’t see somebody actually going faster over a distance that is more than twice as long on the bike and run.
He did that with cruising down the carpet, and turning around and blowing kisses to the crowds before crossing the finish. He could probably have gone under 3:44 if he had hammered it all the way home. Of course, there was picture perfect conditions for the race last November. Calm water, no real currents, pancake flat bike, winds under 5 mph max, reasonably flat run with four bridge crossings, but good temperatures in the mid 70s and some light cloud cover.
If you up the level of competition with the same course and conditions, I think 3:40 or there abouts is within reach.
3:30 OTOH, is years away, if it does occur in my lifetime. But, who knows, there could be some new technology on the bike that changes everything.
Short course is the easy way, failing that, a lead vehicle that gives a very nice draft will help by 5-10minutes. It is possible - just need a good athlete, in good form, with favourable conditions… It will happen some time…
Here’s what’s possible in the near future, on an accurate course. Those times from Andrew John’s race are definately off, in fact it looks like the swim and bike were way short, but the run could have actually been long. KInd of matters where the transition times are sitting in there…
On a legit fast course, let’s take the fastest splits that guys have done now. A 21 low in a wetsuit for the swim, about 2 flat for the bike, and a 1:12 for the run…If my math is right, that is 3:33 without transitions. Add a couple minutes for that, and you get 3:35, and these are all splits that guys have done in a race, not stand alone times. Of course the same guy did not do all 3 of these splits, but you can safely say, that if you add two minutes to two of the splits, and assume the guy doing this time would have one of them, then you get 3:39. That’s what is possible now, given the right course, conditions, and competition.
… remember a few years back when they screwed up the women’s race and the run was only about 7.5 or 8k?
