And as an aside, use the #'s as an informational tool, but not as specific instructions on when to go easy, hard, etc. It’s one of the things to consider when tracking training, but not a be-all, end-all. I think Coggan used the quote to use it as a type of description of your training, but not prescription on what to do. (Well I think he was talking more about the W/kg-by-rider-class table, but I think it also applies to the PMC chart.)
Thanks for the information. What is the PMC chart?
The origins of the stress/fitness/fatigue style graph was something called the “Performance Management Chart” in software related to TrainingPeaks called “WKO”. And then copied/adapted in dozens of different forms, including TrainingPeaks’ main tool. There are also tons of variations on the formulas used. Some to try to improve on others…some to try to get around giving credit to the original inventors (Banister, Coggan, et al.).
I think the Elevate one tends to adhere to the original WKO-style pretty closely. What Strava does is a bit of mystery. The numbers from one should not be compared to the numbers on the other. (but in theory they should track each other to some degree in general “shape” of the resulting curves). If they don’t, that’d be interesting.
I tried to reverse-engineer the Strava algorithm at one point – results below:
Fitness = CTL or Chronic Training Load = \Sigma_i=0^\infty (1/42)1.3RE_i*exp(-i/42)
Or the sum of 1/42*1.3 times your relative effort (RE) times e to the i/42, over all days from today (i=0) backwards indefinitely (i=infinity) where i is the number of days ago that you did the activity.
Fatigue = ATL or Acute Training Load = \Sigma_i (1/7)1.3RE_i*exp(-i/7)
Form = TSB or training stress balance = Fitness = Fatigue
Broadly speaking, this means Fitness has about a 6-week memory, fatigue has a one-week memory, and if you exercise monotonously everyday with the same relative effort RE=X, you will end up converging (over a span of a few months) towards a state with Fitness=Fatigue=1.3*X.
Strava’s relative effort (RE) is akin to Training Stress Score or TSS, and is based on either power zones or heart rate zones. I only have experience using it with HR zones, and do not know the formula, nor can I find anything clear about the nuts and bolts of how it is calculated. For me, relative efforts for running races are roughly: 5k ~60, half marathon ~250, marathon ~400. An article about relative effort suggests median users have a 10k run relative effort of ~120 and a olympic bike leg split relative effort of ~190.