crap. someone make the little green arrows go back up.
reality bites.
Profit taking after 4 weeks of rise, plus anticipation of some dismal 1Q earnings - why should anyone be surprised?
This is why I don’t track day to day. On the other hand, after earnings are over in a couple of weeks, things can get back to normal.
ok, that is a good outlook.
Ya, in the last 30 days my protfolio is up over 20% before today, so there has to be some profit taking at some point. Yesterday took off in a hurry in the wrong direction, but later on plowed back. It appears there is a lot of pressure on the market to go up these days, but folks are scared and taking short term profits when they can. I rode it down the entire way on this slide, so I’m not going to try and time it going up. I have friends that got scared and got out in the last couple months, and now they have lots 20% more on top of the 40 to 50% they already lost.
Of course there could be another crash, and they will be right and I will be wrong, but when the market his 6500, I figured there was not much more downside, and a huge potential for upside, and so far so good…When friends ask me what to do, I just say what if you had a wad of cash, where would it go now?? I say real estate and the market, both very likley at or near their bottoms…It’s just if you rode them down, it’s harder to put yourself in that mindset with your holdings…I say hang on, and put new money in if you can on the bigger downswings…
i agree with you on real estate (probably moreso than the market).
sickening suspense, waiting for the earning reports.
i thought the market would dip below 6 and then have a strong climb. your 6500 is better.
the last month has been nuts, there is a feeling people want to move on to better times. that feeling is there, it’s in the air, the proof is in the numbers.
i like what jim said, after the earnings reports, if bad news, could take a couple of weeks to shake it off. but i think the pressure of optimism will defeat the effects (unless the reports are entirely catastrophic, i don’t think they will be).
let’s see what the afternoon brings.
On the other hand, after earnings are over in a couple of weeks, things can get back to normal.
Unfortunately I think “normal” will be new lows… not quite yet, but within a few months.
maybe - maybe not - I have given up trying to predict markets - they baffle me since so much is quarter driven, and so much can swing within that time.
I am only invested through company 401K and con only re-balance my portfolio twice a year - so trying to do anything like short selling or dealing with individual reports is pretty much a wash for me - I have a longer term focus since responding to short term variance would be a waste.
Given I have about another 20 years of work ahead of my, I just look at the fact that all I am doing is buying more cheaper.
i agree with you on real estate (probably moreso than the market).
sickening suspense, waiting for the earning reports.
i thought the market would dip below 6 and then have a strong climb. your 6500 is better.
the last month has been nuts, there is a feeling people want to move on to better times. that feeling is there, it’s in the air, the proof is in the numbers.
i like what jim said, after the earnings reports, if bad news, could take a couple of weeks to shake it off. but i think the pressure of optimism will defeat the effects (unless the reports are entirely catastrophic, i don’t think they will be).
let’s see what the afternoon brings.
Just keep repeating: It’s not over until it’s over and you won’t get too crazy.
Stick to 2010 for the worst to be past us but keep an eye out for bargains which are many today. That’s my philosophy until further notice. 
i don’t disagree on the 2010 comment. my little artisan business will be lucky to survive.
I have friends that got scared and got out in the last couple months, and now they have lots 20% more on top of the 40 to 50% they already lost.
I don’t understand. If someone got out in Sept 08 at 11500 and stuck it in cash/bonds, then comes back in at 7500 and rides it back up, how had he lost compared to someone who rode it all the way down? Seems to me if you sit on the sideline during the slide and jump back in when the upturn starts, you make out better.
(btw, I see your point if you are referring to someone who jumped out when the market was below 7000)
(btw, I see your point if you are referring to someone who jumped out when the market was below 7000) \
That is what I was talking about. Guys rode it down to the 6500/7500 area, then got so frustrated with the paper losses, they sold and made them real losses. I wish I would have gotten out at 11000+, but I was of the mind as it was freefalling, that we have to be near the bottom soon, so dont be a sucker and bail. That is still my stragedy, it is just going to take a lot longer to become whole again.
I used to be able to day trade my retirement account, and I always beat the S&P, but they put some strict restrictions on that, so now I have to be a buy and hold kind of investor.
"Unfortunately I think “normal” will be new lows… not quite yet, but within a few months. "
I agree with you. We’re not going down just yet. Watch for the financials to allow this rally to continue as they fake their Earnings with new accounting “rules”…like they have good earnings…but the stupid masses will take this as a sign for a true recovery…They’ll think housing hit bottom as well. Wrong. I wouldn’t b surprised if we head to 8400 then pull back to the high 7900s and then go off to hit 9k some…just wait 'til 2Q and 3Q numbers come out, that’s when we’ll really take a hit, in the fall. Just my opinion. And watch for the upper income RE to take another 20% hit between now and the end of the year.
could the surge could breed optimism which could create a life of its own within the market?
the surge could breed optimism which could create a life of its own within the market?
Optimism can only carry things so far before reality sets in. IMO we have serious economic issues that are not going to get resolved for many years… if ever. So I don’t believe that the market is undervalued because there is rampant pessimism… rather, I believe it is still overvalued… all things considered.
And what I’m considering is a few trillion in financial fraud that really hasn’t been shaken out yet, a huge reduction in personal spending and consumption necessitated by an overextension of credit… besides of course, unemployment. The devastation of our main “economic engine” for the last 10 years… finance (wtf?). Insane government deficit spending for most of the last 35 years, which leaves the current federal government with no viable options. And most of the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are… so “globalism” isn’t likely to help any of these companies either.
I suggest you check out the behavior of the Dow during the early 30s as a pretty good example of what is likely to happen for the next few years.
“I suggest you check out the behavior of the Dow during the early 30s as a pretty good example of what is likely to happen for the next few years.”
Uhhhh…no. The current policy response is nothing like the 1930s.
Haim
i suggest you put your money in guns and ammo!
we are not near the 30’s. why are people fixated on that.
because there are too many similarities. But I agree, we are not the 30s. IMO it will be worse.
Uhhhh…no. The current policy response is nothing like the 1930s.
I don’t believe that policies made much difference in that case, and they won’t in this one either.
But I’m happy to listen to why you think otherwise.
As the end of life as we know it is obviously near, I’m going to get a start on the raping and pilladging tonight. 