538 just posted: Biden wins 53 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election
.
538 just posted: Biden wins 53 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election
the incumbent in WH
who I have admitted is the favorite to be re-elected, if for no other reason than he is the incumbent (which you’ve been too busy gifperving to grasp)
5 months out from the election.
after all the lawfare, accusations, Jan 6, our country is collapsing, Trump will be a dictator and never leave office (none of which is “propaganda”)
wins the simulation 53 out of 100 times.
And you think this is a positive development worth posting about. and that posting about it makes you look “good”.
you have now proven yourself both too creepy **AND ** too stupid to be dealt with.
538 just posted: Biden wins 53 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election
the incumbent in WH
who I have admitted is the favorite to be re-elected, if for no other reason than he is the incumbent (which you’ve been too busy gifperving to grasp)
5 months out from the election.
after all the lawfare, accusations, Jan 6, our country is collapsing, Trump will be a dictator and never leave office (none of which is “propaganda”)
wins the simulation 53 out of 100 times.
And you think this is a positive development worth posting about. and that posting about it makes you look “good”.
you have now proven yourself both too creepy **AND ** too stupid to be dealt with.
And yet here you are dealing with me. I thought you had me on ignore, but apparently you just can’t quit me.
I’m heartened to see that we agree Biden is likely to be re-elected. That said, I’m curious how that can be true since the vast majority of your postings are about Biden’s “historically” low popularity numbers.
I’m also surprised you didn’t post this 538 update, since you breathless post every single poll showing that Pendejo Naranja is pulling ahead.
What is the +/- room for error on those sims?
What is the +/- room for error on those sims?
50/50.
What is the +/- room for error on those sims?
To clarify: I don’t think there is any way to predict what will happen over the next few months with any degree of accuracy. Polls aren’t votes, and polling results aren’t election results.
That said, I think it is reasonable to examine recent voting trends and look for patterns. For example:
Replying to myself: results from Ohio last night.
Yesterday’s Republican congressional primary results were a strong disappointment to the House Freedom Caucus. The kook wannabe freedom pursuers lost bigly to the incumbents who have not yet gone over to the dark side of freedom.
Deeper dive on the graphic I posted above: https://statuskuo.substack.com/...p;triedRedirect=true
The race for Ohio Congressional District 6 was supposed to be a blowout. After all, Trump won that district by over 29 percent in 2020. And Rep. Bill Johnson won it two years ago by 35 points.
That meant it was a reliably red district. And the Democratic challenger was a first-time, unknown candidate named Michael Kripchak, who quit his day job to run against GOP state senator, Michael Rulli. Kripchak is a veteran who spent only around $25K to Rulli’s $700,000, a nearly 30 to 1 cash advantage for the Republican.
In the end, however, Rulli won by only around 8.5 points. That’s a 20 point swing toward the Democrats since 2020, and a 26 point swing since 2022. Importantly, every county moved toward the Democrats.
What is the +/- room for error on those sims?
assuming the major candidates had been determined this early in previous cycles
- what would the # of sims won by Hilary over Trump have been
- what would the # of sims won by Biden over Trump have been
one could use the spreads of the, say Oct 2016 and 2020 polls, to determine what the fluctuation toward Trump COULD be.(not saying will be)
Biden Harris are the incumbents with a track record.
the sim spread right now in 53-47
geetee thinks this is good news.
What is the +/- room for error on those sims?
assuming the major candidates had been determined this early in previous cycles
- what would the # of sims won by Hilary over Trump have been
- what would the # of sims won by Biden over Trump have been
one could use the spreads of the, say Oct 2016 and 2020 polls, to determine what the fluctuation toward Trump COULD be.(not saying will be)
Biden Harris are the incumbents with a track record.
the sim spread right now in 53-47
geetee thinks this is good news.
Can’t argue with genius like that.
From the notoriously liberal Federalist: Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem
In case you’re wondering: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-federalist/
In case you’re wondering: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-federalist
that website should report itself, it gets quite a lot of “facts” wrong.
everyone knows republicans have a voter turnout problem; doesn’t that make you excite?
This will come as a total shock to some people but apparently Trump might be losing his mental acuity.
“Could not keep a straight thought”: CEOs worry about Trump’s mental decline after “meandering” talk (msn.com)
“A number of CEOs walked into the meeting being Trump support-ish or thinking that they might be leaning that direction, who said he was remarkably meandering,â€
Trump “could not keep a straight thought" and “was all over the map,” some executives told Sorkin. That “may be not surprising,” he said, "but it was interesting to me because these were people who I think might have been predisposed to him and actually walked out of the room less predisposed to him.â€
In case you’re wondering: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-federalist
that website should report itself, it gets quite a lot of “facts” wrong.
everyone knows republicans have a voter turnout problem; doesn’t that make you excite?
geetee should jiggle this
Joe Biden Drop in Black Voter Support Leaves CNN Analyst ‘Speechless’ (msn.com)
This will come as a total shock to some people but apparently Trump might be losing his mental acuity.
“Could not keep a straight thought”: CEOs worry about Trump’s mental decline after “meandering” talk (msn.com)
“A number of CEOs walked into the meeting being Trump support-ish or thinking that they might be leaning that direction, who said he was remarkably meandering,â€
Trump “could not keep a straight thought" and “was all over the map,” some executives told Sorkin. That “may be not surprising,” he said, "but it was interesting to me because these were people who I think might have been predisposed to him and actually walked out of the room less predisposed to him.â€
Pretty common when the person has dementia.
And like my father (Alzheimer’s) Trump repeats stories. Hannibal Lecter for instance. Pretty sure he’s mentioned Sharks vs battery before too.
This will come as a total shock to some people but apparently Trump might be losing his mental acuity.
“Could not keep a straight thought”: CEOs worry about Trump’s mental decline after “meandering” talk (msn.com)
“A number of CEOs walked into the meeting being Trump support-ish or thinking that they might be leaning that direction, who said he was remarkably meandering,â€
Trump “could not keep a straight thought" and “was all over the map,” some executives told Sorkin. That “may be not surprising,” he said, "but it was interesting to me because these were people who I think might have been predisposed to him and actually walked out of the room less predisposed to him.â€
Pretty common when the person has dementia.
And like my father (Alzheimer’s) Trump repeats stories. Hannibal Lecter for instance. Pretty sure he’s mentioned Sharks vs battery before too.
pretty common for you and Nutella to be on your high horses about propaganda and then get woodies over a Salon article in which Aaron Sorkin “reports” that “some CEO’s” told him something without the need to name any of them or get an actual quote and pretend it’s fact.
This will come as a total shock to some people but apparently Trump might be losing his mental acuity.
“Could not keep a straight thought”: CEOs worry about Trump’s mental decline after “meandering” talk (msn.com)
“A number of CEOs walked into the meeting being Trump support-ish or thinking that they might be leaning that direction, who said he was remarkably meandering,â€
Trump “could not keep a straight thought" and “was all over the map,” some executives told Sorkin. That “may be not surprising,” he said, "but it was interesting to me because these were people who I think might have been predisposed to him and actually walked out of the room less predisposed to him.â€
Pretty common when the person has dementia.
And like my father (Alzheimer’s) Trump repeats stories. Hannibal Lecter for instance. Pretty sure he’s mentioned Sharks vs battery before too.
pretty common for you and Nutella to be on your high horses about propaganda and then get woodies over a Salon article in which Aaron Sorkin “reports” that “some CEO’s” told him something without the need to name any of them or get an actual quote and pretend it’s fact.
Not on a high horse. It may or may not have happened but it lines up with everything I have been observing about Trump. It’s definitely more likely true than not.
As soon as his teleprompter stops working these days he is all over the map. Can’t hold a thought for more than 30 seconds. His brain no longer works properly.
And that’s ok. Just not for a guy you want to run your country.
Only the best people…
pretty common for you and Nutella to be on your high horses about propaganda and then get woodies over a Salon article in which Aaron Sorkin “reports” that “some CEO’s” told him something without the need to name any of them or get an actual quote and pretend it’s fact.
Yep. I prefer my insider info to come from a trusted source who’s willing to put their name on record with their allegations.
Like former SECDEF Mark Esper reporting first hand that Trump wanted the military to shoot American citizens for protesting.
https://youtu.be/kQYW_ITznX4?t=33
This was what, four years ago when he wasn’t pushing 80 and unable to speak coherently?