I think only Long can answer that as to how much “all in” he’s truly done. Which again is why I said having 1 full year to go into “swim focus” while likely getting paid great money and not have to worry about race results. This would be the time to do it in the least pressure year of likely his entire pro career (minus the very early years).
At the end of the day it’s about demands of competition. And of course every athlete is going to have different pathways to that answer because everyone comes at it with different strength and weaknesses. But if your telling me an athlete has that major of a weakness, I’d love to have an athlete in Long’s position where he essentially has a “free year” to implement training that can likely benefit him for long term; as I said this winter- Long can go all in on the swim and not even do T100 after this year (if his results are only marginally good and thus doesn’t get an auto contract) and it have a big impact on his 70.3/IM career.
Swim splits that far back, we’‘ll just agree to disagree that he’s “maxed out” his swim ability. In Long’s last video (3:30 mark after talking about doing 20 x 100 on 1:30, coming in ~1:10 avg…I dont know if that’s SCY or SCM?) he said 2023 was a year he focused on the swim, 2024 he admitted was “less on the swim”, and now he’s back to the swim focus. So that’s smart training, I just hope the race results dont’ put him in a negative mindset, because again use this year to develop and dont’ worry about the race results…your already getting paid big money. So there should be by default less 'pressure" even though yes all athletes want to “win”. (duh- no one wants to just show up and “oh the results dont matter”, but that’s imo should be the primary goal for him this year with this race schedule and payment structure)
I still find it impossible to believe he’s leaving more than 1-2sec/100 on the table, if even that, by dragging hips, or any technique fix. The folks at aquabear would definitely have fixed that by now.
He’s going to need to find 5+sec/100, if not 10sec/100 to compete in the swim. That’s enormous, far more than any technique fix at his level can do, and almost certainly far more than any fitness gain he’ll get, as he’s swimming 20k/wk around right now.
This is akin to asking someone who’s running 1:20 as their best in the 70.3 run, after 5+ years of pro-level solid training and GOOD coaching, to take one year, and run 1:05-1:08. Not gonna happen. Even though a 1:20 HIM run split is good enough to beat the vast majority of AGers.
I think all the naturally pretty-good swimmers here for whom swim gains came fairly easily/normally and didn’t have to struggle to be good, underestimate how hard it is to improve their swim. They assume anyone who’s not reaching their potential just aren’t putting in the adequate time and having their stroke looked at enough, but for guys like SL where his entire career is on the line solely because of the swim, there’s no way this is true.
Except Sam Long admits this himself in his last video on his swim progression. 2023 was a good swim development year, 2024 he didn’t focus on it as much and now he’s back to the grind of it and he himself thinks/sees he can improve upon.
The main issue for T100 swim vs other events, is that T100 is so top heavy with top swim athletes that the take out speed is nucluer and there are no real feet to latch onto after that. Atleast in other events, even if you get dropped initially by the strongest take out speeds, there is still usually a second/third group of athletes to "share "the workload and/or find some free speed. In T100 he’s literally doing an iTT 10 strokes into the event. So it’s going to be part looking at swim splits, but also the athlete konwing your getting better in the swim regardless of what the stop watch says. You can improve in certain areas and it not always translate exactly with massive drops in time. Maybe it means you stay in the group for 200m instead of 25m only, etc, and that will only put him in a better position for his 70.3/IM career.
Let’s be real here. Sam isn’t losing the swim in the T100 field because he’s getting dropped in the first 200m.
He’s getting dropped THE ENTIRE WAY.
I guarantee that you can give SAM a 100m head start in the race, and the front pack will eat him up, and spit him right out the back. I’ll even wager you start sam at the halfway point, let him start swimming as the front pack reaches him, he’ll STILL get dropped by 1-2+ minutes by the end of the swim.
And even the concept of him being able to swim fast enough in the first 100-200 to keep up - that’s almost certainly an even harder task for a less-talented swimmer than going the distance diesel style. Short-distance top speed is probably the MOST genetically-determined, and hardest to improve. There’s a reason all the ex-ITU guys transitioned to ironman or half-ironman once they lost the edge of their short top-end speed - you can’t train it up like you can the distance. Asking sam to train up so he can swim sprint like a genetically gifted ITU swimmer, no chance. Whereas he has a entirely realistic chance of chipping away 10-40sec off the deficit by the end with more swim training.
I’m not throwing shade at Sam - I think he’s done an amazing job becoming a solid pro swimmer and he’s decimating the entire AG field in the swim. He’s just unfortunately lining up the BEST triathlon swimmers in the world, some of whom had a legit shot at being in the top best swimmers in the world had they just chosen to go all-swimming (V. luis, for example.)
I’m simultaneous REALLY glad he chose to participate rather than dodge the series entirely. Sure, the contract may have been the main reason, but him participating really does help show the relative strengths/weakness of the field as you get such a contrast. It makes the race better for sure, rather than all the ‘what-if’s’ you’d get if he wasn’t there.
But to be fair to SL, the T100 crew of 2024 had Bradley Weiss, Leon C, Jason West, RVB and others who aren’t exactly natural born swimmers. He probably made some progression but the class of 2025 is on a different level
I watched the first 10 mins before I had to leave and there was a yarning gap after 2 mins as you rightly pointed out!!
I don’t think this will change much as most of the LD athletes have no path to return to T100 so we will probably get WTCS graduates going forward
Except he is losing the swim in the 1st 25m because he’s then having to swim solo the rest of the swim. T100 has a max of 20 athletes, IM events have what 75 people starting in the pro fields? T100 has no “gap fillers” that can help an athlete like Long, that other events do have. So my point seemingly went completely over your head. He could be easily finding 2s/100 swim improvements and he still be “way back” in the swim (for T100 swims). 1 min improvement in IM (70.3 or IM) would be a game changer for him.
So that’s the point, I’m not even suggesting he’s trying to get WTCS take out speed. I’m suggesting if he improves his swim which you seem to say is seemingly impossible, that he will then be able to hang on feet easier in races that have that. T100 essentially has very few “poor” swimmers, so thus no shit sherlock he’s gapped from stroke 1. Other non-draft races allow for better opportunities to get pulled along in the swim even for “poor” swimmers to save that small amount of energy that he will never get in the T100.
And so my overall point which Long seems to be doing…use this year to really get after it with better swim training. He’s far from “maxed” out his ability regardless of what you think.
As my point per above - he’s not losing 3+ minutes in the swim because he’s getting dropped in the first 100-200. He is getting dropped THE WHOLE WAY. Like I said, even if you dropped him in at the halfway point, where everyone’s done sprinting, he’d almost certainly still come out last in the swim. The gap is simply too big.
I seriously doubt he is ‘easily’ finding 2s/100. How many swimmers have you come across that have dedicated 20k/wk for years to swimming, and can ‘easily’ find 2s/100? They can’t even find 0.3sec/100 ‘easily’ - it’s all super, super hard work and likely a huge jump in volume, like 10k-20k more just to see a small <5sec/100 gain. If Sam could swim 40k/wk and hang with the front pack, he would have done it by now. I guarantee he’s tested swimming 25, 30, and possibly 30+k/wk, and saw how little benefits he was getting.
I’ll bet Sam is near-maxxed in the swim. Any gains he’ll get are critically important, so he should keep grinding, but let’s be realistic - it’s all about big deficit control at this point. He’s not going to be a world-class triathlon swimmer, he’s not going to suddenly be gaining a whole minute by magically hanging with the front pack after surviving the swim sprint, and he’s not going to find any technique fix that’s even going to give him 1sec/100. This is not cynicism - this is what years of his results and his dedicated in-person swim coaching and obvious determination for swim improvement have shown.
I’d be on your page if he were like a year 1-2 pro, but he’s not.
Just woke up and saw results. Are these swim times correct that Sam (29:19) was over 4 minutes slower than the next slowest swimmer in Fred Funk (25:03)? That seems like a big deficit swim even by Sam’s standards.
And that’s fine to disagree, but it’s clear your not seeing that it’s not just 1+1=2. It’s an combination of things. Which generally is called demands of competition.
So the greater point is, Long can have an improved swim that will have a bigger impact long term on his career and it do very little to improve his actual T100 swim or T100 results. All because of how the T100 is setup and how 70.3/IM is setup.
if T100 had 75 athletes of varying degrees like other non-draft events have, his swim would not look “this bad”. It only is that bad because he’s swimming solo from stroke 10 to the end in that environment.
We have no clue if Sam is near maxxed our not. From his own words he sorta went from strong '23 swim development, to not much last year, to now back to the grind. If your looking at a athlete and wanting to develop your weakest event in a year you still get paid…sign me up 10/10 times. He’s in a really really good spot if he can keep it there mentally as well. And of course let’s be real. He’s likely only doing T100 in the 1st place at this point of his career cus he’s likely paid really well before the race results even count. If that weren’t part of the conversation, there would be likely 10% chance he is even attempting T100. Once your outside the podium, the prize money isn’t all that great. So that’s why I think this is such a great opportunity for Long- he’s getting paid large amount of money regardless of the result. Take advantage of that to shore up a key weakness, which it sounds like he is doing.
For the life of me, I don’t know why you even mention he’s not going to make world class swimmer. Who the fuck has ever said that? I’ve said there is zero chance he’s maxed out his swim ability based on the last year of his ability and that if there is ever a time to go “all in” on the swim, it’s a year when your paid a fulll wage regardless of race result. If he gets closer to his '23 swim ability he’s closed the gap pretty significantly.
Here are the data: https://www.trirating.com/singapore-t100-2025-analyzing-results/
Barnaby (who finished #5 !) was the last man in touch (with Wilde, Margirier and Keulen). The next three were alone Funk @28 secs, then 2+ minutes back was Mann and another 2+ min gap before Long crawled onto the pontoon.
Yes: suspect that’s the largest deficit he’s achieved in any middle distance race.
NB Long was second on dry land in this SBR race.
I’m saying world class triathlon swimmer. This is literally the field he’s competing against in T100.
I’ll be amazed if he improves even 75 seconods reliably on his race results from year to year from now. You keep making it sound like it’s not a big lift, or at least once that’s eminently doable and it’s just his fault for not taking the deep dive to do it. I’m saying the far more likely scenario is that he’s done it - quite a few times already, and the results just haven’t come the way folks like you were hoping. At this point I think by his objective results, it’s fiction to be as optimistic as you are about his swim improvement.
In the bigger races with a bigger pro field he does get more draft due to other slower swimmers, but make no mistake, he’s not closing the gap in any meaningful way with the front pack.He’s just surrounded by more up and coming pros who arent top elite pro triathlon swimmers.
Just because other up and coming pros you’ve seen can train a ton and improve a ton in one year, doesn’t mean Sam or lionel can do it, given their significant history of trying quite hard at swim improvement. There’s no way they’re not taking it seriously enough - it’s the only thing stopping either of them from dominating every race they do. Sam is pretty much near-maxxed on his swim performance at this point. Any gains will be measured in seconds, or at best tens of seconds.
Listening to his 1 week out video he seemed to have a soft goal of being 1 min faster vs the '24 swim split, which was 4 mins back. That goal would be a “great sign of progress” aa
So what will more importantly be his takeaways/reaction to this swim split? It’ll be interesting to see, but from the video it sounds like he’s got a good understanding that when he goes to 70.3 if he can actually have a good swim he’ll be in a good position.
Agree - there are def a bunch in there who HAD THE TALENT such that if they put in the hard work in swimming, they’d get to the front pack or close enough to be a threat.
Back in the day like 10 years ago and more, pretty much any pro triathlete who could run and bike fast could ‘train it up’ enough to not lose the race entirely in the swim.
Times have changed though, and what’ you’re seeing now are the guys and gals with talent in all 3 disciplines and no weaknesses. For all each Bradley Weiss and Jason west, there are like 50 guys who tried but couldn’t improve that swim enough to contend. At todays’ level, talent is required. Talent for these guys in the pro tri swim world doesn’t mean you had to be a child prodigy swimmer, but it does mean that if you’re busting your tail and getting good coaching for more than a few years, you won’t still be getting thrown out the back by 4+ minutes.
Except Long even mentioned his '24 swim program was not as intense as his '23. Far be it for me to think he’d have a better grasp of what he is or isn’t doing than someone on the internet.
So again Long is in a really really good position where he doesn’t have to rely on prize money to “support his family”; he’s getting paid by PTO in addition to whatever race winnings he may win. That affords him much greater opportunity to go more “all in” on any weakness and it not impact his abilty to support his family. If you can’t see that, I don’t really know what to tell you. Do I think that ability then improves the chances of a swim improvement…yes I do. I also think it’s not really going to matter for this year’s T100 it’ll be more impactful long term when he goes back to 70.3/IM racing (again Long has this very viewpoint as well). So I’m not really sure what you want to argue? That he’s maxed out.
Cool he’s maxed out and nothing he can do will be of any benefit. Good?
Again, I said it before - he HAS tried more swim training with more volume, more intensity - and found that the gains weren’t enough to justify keeping doing it, or even adding more. And you’re expecting him to do exactly that. Zero chance that he just is just slacking off on the swim - we all felt his pain when big-swag Sam Long even broke down in tears at a race last year as it was ‘so, so hard’ - which was ALL about the swim.
It however makes from great watching when SL makes a comeback and storms his way to the podium! Didnt happen yesterday, but has happened, and real chances that it could happen again!
