Looks like Sam is going to try and KQ in Australia. Should be interesting to see how he does. I don’t follow the PTO schedule too much but how will Kona effect his PTO schedule? If he can nail down a good Ironman he could be pretty dangerous in Kona with how well he handles heat.
Looks like Sam is going to try and KQ in Australia. Should be interesting to see how he does. I don’t follow the PTO schedule too much but how will Kona effect his PTO schedule? If he can nail down a good Ironman he could be pretty dangerous in Kona with how well he handles heat.This cunning plan is motivated by the IM Pro Series. With two top scores (Oceanside and St George) a result in Cairns (8 days after T100 SF) will allow him to race in Kona and then Taupo.
Lange is the athlete to beat but I’m guessing he won’t race Taupo, in which case the max Lange can score is 21,000. He’s dropped 29 minutes so far. I’m estimating a final score of 18,500. Remember he’s racing Roth as well.
Hanson, with a good IMLP and Kona will be close to that: maybe 18,000.
Long with reasonable results hereafter might score 17,000.
Long racing Cairns (a week after T100 SF so recovery and time zone change a challenge) and Kona will not affect his T100 campaign other than he’ll miss Las Vegas in mid October. Loads of the top T100 athletes will be racing Taupo a fortnight after the GF in (ME location: noname).
This is what Sanders should be doing, and he hasn’t got the T100 contract round his neck so he has more flexibility to get a 5th score at a 70.3 somewhere (eg MT a month before IMLP).
Given his Texas result, Rodriguez is also a big contender as he is one of the few who is qualified for both WC. And he is has had good results at 70.3 before. He has been said to be racing Boulder which is a altitude race similar to where he trains in Mexico.
Regarding the series it is strange/unfair that the 4 N. Am 70.3 races offer slots for Taupo whereas only 2 european races do because only 2 take place before the qualification deadline. And the level is quite higher in Europe where Germany or France have more high level athletes than the US. Very few people knew about Mann before Mallorca. He won a 90.11 SOF race whereas Hanson won a 78.75 SOF race and no unknown was to factor.
Another point is that is always more complicated to race abroad than home. Dubrick did not factor at the Championship nor did Chase. And very few Euros or NZ/Aus raced except for those who went to Oceanside as a Texas combo, given that the cost of living has really become quite higher in the US, it’s a problem for athletes because the gap with Europe has widened.
Only Anthony Costes has taken a chance and it payed off. Last year his best result was a 5th at a Silver tier race, another evidence of the SOF difference, yet he needs to KQ and he has not had a good IM for years.
Sorry for derailing the thread, good to have all the best racing.
Hopefully Sam isn’t just chasing the dollars. Pigs get fat Hogs get slaughtered.
Looks like Sam is going to try and KQ in Australia. Should be interesting to see how he does. I don’t follow the PTO schedule too much but how will Kona effect his PTO schedule? If he can nail down a good Ironman he could be pretty dangerous in Kona with how well he handles heat.
https://youtu.be/JtiKyfFA-fI?si=vqBP9R-hU-k4wnA9
Excellent news! Cant wait for KB to return to long course racing as well and we will have an amazing line up! Hopefully Iden can also find his way back
I would worry that he’s stretching a great run of form a bit too far and trying to win everything (PTO, Pro Series, racing all grand finals/WCs). Love the guy though, so I hope he proves me wrong. Certainly great to be in the position to even consider rolling those dice!
Looks like Sam is going to try and KQ in Australia. Should be interesting to see how he does. I don’t follow the PTO schedule too much but how will Kona effect his PTO schedule? If he can nail down a good Ironman he could be pretty dangerous in Kona with how well he handles heat.
https://youtu.be/JtiKyfFA-fI?si=vqBP9R-hU-k4wnA9
Excellent news! Cant wait for KB to return to long course racing as well and we will have an amazing line up! Hopefully Iden can also find his way back
Do you anticipate that Blummenfelt or Iden could beat Long in a middle or long course race right now? It just seems that they’re traveling in different directions right now.
For the Kona predictions: A guy like Laidlow - can he really peak one day per year ever single year?? Iden will need another year to get back on track. The Rodriguez kid was lighting in a bottle. If that race happened tomorrow, I’d put my money on Marquardt. Who has confidence that any older veteran can beat ALL of the younger guys outright.
Kona is in the time frame for when it has been predicted that the race heavy schedule will produce injuries. While some guys have hype, I’m not sure they’ll all be able to start Kona. A lot will happen between now and October, but my bet is on Sam Long, Magnus and one other guy, being run down by Patrick. It won’t be obvious who that guy is until mile 10 and we’ll all be like, “yeah, so obvious!”
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Hopefully Sam isn’t just chasing the dollars. Pigs get fat Hogs get slaughtered.
If he starts getting fat, he can just switch to mortal hydration.
I dunno, I think this thread is pretty good:
The Official, All-Encompassing Sam Long Thread
.
I would worry that he’s stretching a great run of form a bit too far and trying to win everything (PTO, Pro Series, racing all grand finals/WCs). Love the guy though, so I hope he proves me wrong. Certainly great to be in the position to even consider rolling those dice!Long, if he’s rational, cannot expect to do well at a long distance race where there’s competition of any depth. Hence the choice of Cairns which will be light beer.
There are 4 x MPRO slots for the IMWC. I assume some of: Thompson, McKenna, Wurf, Burton, Hamilton, Appleton; will be racing (they’re all KQ). He can cuff that (aim is to get a KQ) provided he limits his aspirations and bikes well within capacity. Skipper’s there so why not just ride with him?
The idea of Long having a decent 226km race in October is pretty far fetched. Consider his previous efforts: CdA = DNF (NB immediately after three straight domestic 70.3 wins against the usual NA suspects); #10 in Arizona, nearly an hour down on Skipper; Roth #6, half an hour down on Ditlev; a DNF at Chatt, imm after his excellent #2 at the 70.3WC behind Iden; #13 in Tulsa.
Clearly he’s racing superbly and better than ever this season: kudos to his coach. Racing Cairns (as I’ve descibed ^ ^ ) will have minimal adverse impact on his T100 races. Racing Kona otoh will likely mean Dubai is a write off, but that’s fine (he might even miss Dubai (mid-Nov) to concentrate on the T100 GF (but I doubt it; that’d be uncharacteristically restrained/mature). He has two excellent results already and only needs one more in the regular season. He can then go into the T100 GF with the top score and duke it out ftw. However, racing a ‘character-testing’ Kona only 5 weeks before the GF means the chances of van Riel, Ditlev and/or Keulen (say) rolling him over are increased. And he than has to bounce back up a fortnight later in Taupo.
I think Blu and Iden are in very very different places right now. Blu is a world class WTCS contender and would’ve given Sam an ass whopping. Iden is trying to collect himself and far from Sam’s level.
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Get your hand off it, he won St George against a weak field and Pucon against an even weaker field, a few 2nds which were actually more impressive but all in PTO/70.3 distance and all of a sudden he’s going to win Kona… Oh my lord…
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Get your hand off it, he won St George against a weak field and Pucon against an even weaker field, a few 2nds which were actually more impressive but all in PTO/70.3 distance and all of a sudden he’s going to win Kona… Oh my lord…I saw @Yes It Is’ contribution as a stream of consciousness. Since we don’t know the odds, how can they be “good”. With a fan-following like Long or Sanders you’ll never get good odds anyway.
@last lap I think you might have credited Long’s Miami/Oceanside/Singapore successes (against stacked fields) in your entreaty to @Yes It Is to give their right hand a rest.
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Get your hand off it, he won St George against a weak field and Pucon against an even weaker field, a few 2nds which were actually more impressive but all in PTO/70.3 distance and all of a sudden he’s going to win Kona… Oh my lord…
Please read what I wrote and think through it. If Sam does just as well in San Fran and Cairns as he has been… and I mean in performance… as in, though Youri K is leading the T100, who thinks he’s going to have better betting odds than Sam in a race like Kona? Plus, if Sam does well, he could take a 3 month break, not race, rest, do a quality swim block, not miss any T100 obligations, and would have the benefit from our latest memory of him being 3 months prior. I would anticipate he would be somewhere in the top 3 of betting odds for Kona. I’d bet Lange, KB and Ditlev would also get good odds; Laidlow would have to show something beforehand to get better odds.
I think your zeal to argue with someone at random caused you to overlook what I wrote. I’m talking odds in a betting line. I didn’t say X guy will win, Y guy cannot. Odds are an indication that X amount of people think Sam could win based on all the factors, and I’m saying, I think that number will be pretty high. I see momentum for Sam where I don’t see it elsewhere.
Maybe I have this wrong, but I don’t think you understand how a book works.
Lot’s of people thinking he has a chance means the odds will be poor. And the fact he has not finished a 226km race well in years is a clue to his likely chance in October. I think he’ll get a KQ in Cairns.
Delighted he’s contemplating going along for the fun and vibes in October.
Do you think you’d get better odds on Sanders winning Kona? If not, why not?
Maybe I have this wrong, but I don’t think you understand how a book works.
Lot’s of people thinking he has a chance means the odds will be poor. And the fact he has not finished a 226km race well in years is a clue to his likely chance in October. I think he’ll get a KQ in Cairns.
Delighted he’s contemplating going along for the fun and vibes in October.
Do you think you’d get better odds on Sanders winning Kona? If not, why not?
Yes, I know how the books work. “Odds on favorite” is different than ‘high value’ bet. If he is at +350 or so, that’s an odds favorite to win the race, but not great return. While everyone has an equal chance to win the race, the guys at +4,000 would produce an extreme payday/“good odds”, but are a poor odds to actually hit (1 in 400 chance).
Sam saying he needs to do 70.3-like training and then sprinkle in a little bit of distance seems like he’s figured something out that will be better than what he’s done in the past. If he does well in Cairns (as I mentioned), he could race only when he wants to over the next 3 months and enter Kona with a lot of hype, rested, focused training and a few extra top guys being out. Thats as good of a scenario as he could ask for (unless he wants to race throughout for the sake of momentum). As for his finishing history, you’ve only got to do it once to win the WC. I don’t think he will win it, but if he does well in Cairns, I couldn’t write up a better scenario for him. The other factor is that, even with a swim deficit, he’ll be on everyone’s mind in Kona. Guys will plan accordingly.
As for Sanders v. Long on the line, as of right now, I would think that the volume of bets on Long would move the line in his favor as compared to Sanders. If Lionel runs a 2:35 and wins an IM between now and then, its a different story. There are just too many factors in play between now and then for me to part with my dollars.
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Get your hand off it, he won St George against a weak field and Pucon against an even weaker field, a few 2nds which were actually more impressive but all in PTO/70.3 distance and all of a sudden he’s going to win Kona… Oh my lord…
Please read what I wrote and think through it. If Sam does just as well in San Fran and Cairns as he has been… and I mean in performance… as in, though Youri K is leading the T100, who thinks he’s going to have better betting odds than Sam in a race like Kona? Plus, if Sam does well, he could take a 3 month break, not race, rest, do a quality swim block, not miss any T100 obligations, and would have the benefit from our latest memory of him being 3 months prior. I would anticipate he would be somewhere in the top 3 of betting odds for Kona. I’d bet Lange, KB and Ditlev would also get good odds; Laidlow would have to show something beforehand to get better odds.
I think your zeal to argue with someone at random caused you to overlook what I wrote. I’m talking odds in a betting line. I didn’t say X guy will win, Y guy cannot. Odds are an indication that X amount of people think Sam could win based on all the factors, and I’m saying, I think that number will be pretty high. I see momentum for Sam where I don’t see it elsewhere.
So now you are saying that if he does well in Cairns (again against a weak field) he will be top 3 to win Kona…
I don’t think you realise a few key factor’s, how winning a few b/c grade races is light years away from the level of competition at the world champs, how 70.3 performance doesn’t automatically equal full distance, the calibre of athlete you need to be in order to win the world championship now. You can’t have any definicies, and his swim is a glaring one.
Its crazy what you are saying, that Laidlow would have to do something special to be a bigger favourite than Long… Sheesh try being the reigning world champ for starters, compared to a guy with a few seconds and a win in a C grade field… Oh, and Laidlow can bike, run AND swim…
As Verstappen recently said, ‘and if my mum had balls she would be my Dad’.
I just see Sam with pretty good betting odds in Kona. He’s figured a lot of things out recently.
Get your hand off it, he won St George against a weak field and Pucon against an even weaker field, a few 2nds which were actually more impressive but all in PTO/70.3 distance and all of a sudden he’s going to win Kona… Oh my lord…
Please read what I wrote and think through it. If Sam does just as well in San Fran and Cairns as he has been… and I mean in performance… as in, though Youri K is leading the T100, who thinks he’s going to have better betting odds than Sam in a race like Kona? Plus, if Sam does well, he could take a 3 month break, not race, rest, do a quality swim block, not miss any T100 obligations, and would have the benefit from our latest memory of him being 3 months prior. I would anticipate he would be somewhere in the top 3 of betting odds for Kona. I’d bet Lange, KB and Ditlev would also get good odds; Laidlow would have to show something beforehand to get better odds.
I think your zeal to argue with someone at random caused you to overlook what I wrote. I’m talking odds in a betting line. I didn’t say X guy will win, Y guy cannot. Odds are an indication that X amount of people think Sam could win based on all the factors, and I’m saying, I think that number will be pretty high. I see momentum for Sam where I don’t see it elsewhere.
So now you are saying that if he does well in Cairns (again against a weak field) he will be top 3 to win Kona…
I don’t think you realise a few key factor’s, how winning a few b/c grade races is light years away from the level of competition at the world champs, how 70.3 performance doesn’t automatically equal full distance, the calibre of athlete you need to be in order to win the world championship now. You can’t have any definicies, and his swim is a glaring one.
Its crazy what you are saying, that Laidlow would have to do something special to be a bigger favourite than Long… Sheesh try being the reigning world champ for starters, compared to a guy with a few seconds and a win in a C grade field… Oh, and Laidlow can bike, run AND swim…
As Verstappen recently said, ‘and if my mum had balls she would be my Dad’.
My writing is not as dogmatic as your reading. So, heres my last response:
My two statements were the same in thought; I’m not now saying what I didn’t before.
Quality of field is not my metric. Listen to the comments on Anne Haug winning Lazorate. She won by 44mins over no competition, yet everyone is positive on her result. The actual placing is incidental to the performance. Sam is having fun and setting course records. That bodes well for expectations.
The bike/runner is not lost. There are other factors that come in to play. Slow pack swims, down rivers, wetsuits, Race Ranger, humidity, etc. Hindrance? Yes. Disqualifier? Nope.
Past performance only goes so far. Typically, the winner in Kona comes from last year’s podium. But it’s not like we have a forty-one time world champion, so eventually a change happens, a champion falls, etc.
And Laidlow having no impressive results for the year will tamper the expectations. If a huge race was tomorrow, wouldn’t it be assumed that most people would expect Long to beat Laidlow?
Please know that, just because I share my opinion, I don’t expect you to take them on as your own.
Well your opinion at the moment seems to be falling for YouTuber hype.
Before you pencil him in for a good Kona (let alone a win…) how about you take a breath and wait for him to actually perform in a full distance race.
Curry, Skipper, Lange, Ditlev, Wurf etc were all guys who already had performed really well at full distance and fell short last year. Perhaps you can see how it might be wishful thinking for someone doing OK in a few 70.3 races should be earmarked for a Kona win…
Let’s see what he does at Cairns.
Oh and ignoring the quality of the field is foolish, it’s the only metric that matters. Temperature, tide, wind, humidity all have a huge effect. Sure athlete ‘a’ might perform well on a day, but unless athlete ‘b’ was also there who knows how they may have also performed. Who’s to say Lucy might not have put 10mins into Haug…
Sam is having fun and setting course records. That bodes well for expectations.
Past performance only goes so far. Typically, the winner in Kona comes from last year’s podium. But it’s not like we have a forty-one time world champion, so eventually a change happens, a champion falls, etc.
And Laidlow having no impressive results for the year will tamper the expectations. If a huge race was tomorrow, wouldn’t it be assumed that most people would expect Long to beat Laidlow?You are offering a layered cake of hypothetical on hypothetical with added assumption cream.
Typically, the IMWC winner has been on an IMWC podium before (Norgies are special, and don’t count).
https://www.trirating.com/kona-top-10/
But Laidlow has had a hugely impressive result within the last year. And it was the race he and everyone else had as their A+ race of the season. This year it’s more complicated. Laidlow quite well a year earlier too, in similar IMWC circumstances. Laidlow has to validate his IMWC slot so we’ll see him racing a full distance before 19 August.
Long is having an impressive (seriously impressive) run of form/results (and in B+ grade events btw @lastlap) but extrapolating that to Kona in 5+ months time over a distance that he’s tanked at for years is flawed. kudos to Long for ‘going for it’: it’s a long season. One step at a time: complete Cairns competitively. London offers his last chance of a T100 win (so he won’t miss it).
Feel free to believe but be prepared for others to point out it’s bonkers.