If this happens (widely being reported as a possibility today), how does this affect the race?
Do most RFK supporters go to Trump?
Do some get pissed off and go to Harris?
Does Trump actually take a hit by inviting a lunatic* into the GOP?
(*Yes, even by Trumpian standards.)
There are already polls with and without 3rd party candidates. Cornell West’s is coming apart and RFK Jr dropping out. The numbers don’t move much at all.
trump has never broken 47% of support nationally. he was just below 46% in 2016 and just below 47% in 2020. that seems to be about his max support with Rs and swing voters. don’t see any way how that grows in 2024. seems having 3rd party candidates in the race would favor him. obviously, with EC, there is always the chance that RFK voters in certain swing states might tip a very close election. lastly, over the past few weeks all the polls do show an evaporation of support for the 3rd party candidates RFK and West. many of those were probably Biden protest voters that have come home. I think this race is probably a +5-6% for Kamala right now nationally. that’s just above where Biden was in 2020. she needs to be at least +4 to win the EC comfortably.
Couldn’t this be a big deal in the battleground States?
This is kinda interesting. And, sure, an impact on the election is to be expected. But, what I find most interesting, is how Kennedy, his staff, his supporters, and his wife are all squirming madly at the possible trumpian outcomes.
But, yes, Kennedy’s candidacy could be a massive spoiler. Which would make him a massive hypocrite (go to 30:15 to see the most egregious hypocrisy ever):
Better yet a prolific anti-vaxxer just gave his endorsement to the guy who took credit Operation Warp Speed and the COVID vaccines. Were in a bizarro universe for sure.