Here is a very interesting article on the upper limits of human endurance:
Summary of the findings:
.
Moral of the story is, we are getting close to these predicted “peaks”
I have heard people argue about the sub 2 hour marathon. I just don’t see it happening. Yes, it is a nice round number and therefore a sexy topic to debate. However, the limits of human ability don’t care about round numbers. I know people said this about the 4 minute mile and all, I just don’t see it happening without somehow artificially altering the human body.
I do not intend to turn this into a discussion of PEDs, but if we see athletes exceed these limits, we might seriously look at the use of PEDs. This is what you call “altering the human body.”
I agree with what you are saying. By altering the human body I was referring to anything, including PEDs. But also blood tranfusions, surgeries, all kinds of things we can’t and don’t want to think of.
I dunno, we had reached predicted peaks years ago when there were all kinds of published scientific studies that showed a sub-4:00 mile was impossible. Now the world record is 3:43. I’m sure the scientists then didn’t see it happening either.
I agree with you to a certain extent. But really??? Another 4 minutes off of the marathon? Also, I think and hope, that science is getting better as well, so predicting this stuff is a little more accurate maybe.
You don’t think it’s possible to achieve a 3% time improvement over 26.2 miles? Stranger things have happened.
I think I’m just an optimist and I love it when someone says something is impossible. Seems like an invitation for them to be proven wrong.
How come the mens chart goes up to the marathon and the womens ends at 1500?
The article states there is a flaw since the womens 1500 meter world record is faster than the chart predicts is possible.
I personally don’t think the sub 2 hour marathon is possible without some type of enhancement, but I would love to see it happen.
You don’t think it’s possible to achieve a 3% time improvement over 26.2 miles? Stranger things have happened.
It’s called diminishing returns. I am not saying it is impossible, just highly unlikely.
I’m familiar with the concept, but I think that with the record being so close to that milestone, I’d be suprised if it wasn’t broken in my lifetime. The right runner at the right time on the right course… 3%… it’s bound to happen.
Check this out. This was from Gordo’s forum. Dr. Coggan posted the link.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.f...2559&query_hl=1
What does everyone think?
What does everyone think?
Bad link!
Sorry. I hope this one works!
asymptotic fit is not a proof of anything. a real theoretical limit would be to do something like what F. Perronet does in his book ‘The Marathon’ explaining that for an athlete to go say 2h on a marathon, you need a Vo2max of that much, that running efficiency etc…and list the physiological parameters needed.
From a scientific point of view, estimating what will happen in 300 years based on a few points gathered over about 100 years is definitely not valid. So breaking these ‘limits’ doesn’t means drugs necessarily
Btw…the 10,000m is now 26.17. You can anticipate the 5000m to be history soon…as Bekele established that one in 2004.
On the other hand, with a posteriori knowledge, the 800m of Kratotchvilova (1983) from ex-east germany and the 1500 of Qu (1993) from China are more than suspicious…
Maybe I can race with the chicks in tri, but Krat. could definitely race with the guys…she never looked even remotely feminine
The article states there is a flaw since the womens 1500 meter world record is faster than the chart predicts is possible.
The “flaw” is the extreme likelihood that Qu was on some peds when she set that record. Look at the all time list for the women’s 1500. Look at the all time list for women’s swimming during the time period most of those 1500 marks were set. Look at the country of origin. Tell me what you see. Also look at the date and location each of those marks were set…
Sure, there can be anomolies where someone is leaps and bounds ahead of their time (Beamon, pun intended), but by and large, the performances should be in-line with contemperaries and shouldn’t slow down in the future.
indeed…record established in china…no one close to that now…closest in the junior WR, also from China, and established in Shanghai…
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/records/gender=W/allrecords/discipline=1500/index.html
and there for a comparison of the 1500m times…
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/records/gender=W/allrecords/discipline=800/index.html
Again, I am not saying it can’t happen, just that I don’t think it will, especially anytime soon.
Also, I am not quite sure why everyone keeps saying “3%” like it is such an insignificant improvement. As in “You don’t think someone can improve 3% over 26.2 miles,” well that’s irrelevant, theoretically just because it’s 3% over 26.2 miles, a longer distance than say the 100m sprint, doesn’t make it any easier. That’s why we use percentages, to make things comparable. 3% of 26.2 miles is just as difficult as 3% over 100m. It’s not like they have all this extra time to make this 3% improvement. Now .5 seconds over 26.2 miles would be a lot easier than .5 seconds over 100m.