Just checked the extended forecast for Lockwood and Paso Robles. As of now, they are calling for a 60% chance of rain on the 2nd (Sat) with a high of 71 in Lockwood and 74 in Paso (lows in upper 40’s).
The long range forecasts typically aren’t that accurate, so I’m hoping that’s the case and the rain comes a few days later. But if it is wet, what changes would you make to your race?
When they get tomorrow right I’ll believe what they say about 10 days from now.
Accuweather shows 80 and sunny
http://www.accuweather.com/...veler=1&metric=0
ETA - if it is wet I will be careful on the metal bridge and the downhills. other than that, nothing really. except get really muddy. and owe a bigger debt to my spectating wife
I like that one better.
I was looking at Weather Channel
Use lots of suntan oil to make the water bead and run off an keep you warm. Some will still be on if the sun comes out.
Use a helmet with a visor or a cycling cap under your helmet so if it gets really bad you can still squint between your glasses and the brim and see where you are going.
Wool arm/knee warmers if the start is cold. Wool undershirt.
Drink even though its not hot, but you won’t need so much. Same is true for your electrolytes.
Have tires that you know stick pretty well when wet.
Yeah, I was looking at weather.com it also said what yours did. Not sure how they can be so off, and I don’t know which one is more accurate. Although 76 degrees with showers might not be too bad…
and for jver… wildflower tri, not century
I don’t believe a weather forecast til I walk outside but PLEASE let this happen!
Springtime weather in SoCal/CentralCal are notoriously difficult to predict more than about 2-3 days out. The jet stream tends to split a lot this time of year at the last minute turning predicted storms into two seperate, much weaker systems. You simply can’t lend any credence to a forecast this far out. By the way, in my opinion, the best weather site by far is WeatherUnderground. They use National Weather Service data and have access to the most complete forecasting tools there are.
Agreed. weatherunderground is all I use anymore, yet I still type the damn url wrong everytime.
Last year we had some really good weather, at least better than the year before.
It can’t be anything as bad as the year it rained for days and days and days and was pouring down all weekend. 2003? They had to re-route the run course due to mud and closed trails.
A chance of rain and 71F would be way better than sun and +90F which it’s been lately.
clm
This is unacceptable. I only race in overcast 60 degree no wind type conditions ; )
I’ve heard about that year. Sounds like it was fun.
You don’t race any differently, there is only on fairly steep, technical descent otherwise the course is pretty straight forward.
It can’t be anything as bad as the year it rained for days and days and days and was pouring down all weekend. 2003? They had to re-route the run course due to mud and closed trails.
A chance of rain and 71F would be way better than sun and +90F which it’s been lately.
clm
I remember that year they made us dismount and walk across the metal bridge. I thought walking that bridge in cleats and slippery soled bike shoes was a lot more dangerous than riding over it with rubber tires would have been. I saw a few people slip and fall while walking their bikes over.
And that run course was no fun, either - up Beach Hill twice!
It can’t be anything as bad as the year it rained for days and days and days and was pouring down all weekend. 2003? They had to re-route the run course due to mud and closed trails.
Yep, that was 2003. I did the long course that year and they had us walk our bikes across the steel bridge. The run course was tough in that we had to go up Beach Hill twice. Many people said that run course was tougher than the normal course, though I’m not sure about that.
"A chance of rain and 71F would be way better than sun and +90F which it’s been lately. "
Yeah, I rode the course Tuesday morning…it was 103 when I finished.
Personally, I’d rather have it on the hot side than the cool/wet side.
Very few changes to WF if it rains:
Consider armwarmers and toe covers for the bike (WF starts off cold and ends hot). These can be removed during the bike as it warms up.
The bike isn’t too treacherous when wet, but they will make you dismount and run over the steel grate bridge at mile 40 (~100 yards) for safety’s sake.
More flats when it’s wet, so pack accordingly.
If there’s too much mud on the trails they will keep the run on pavement (2 loops, but a faster course).
As your resident meteorologist, I would recommend actually using the National Weather Service page. www.nws.noaa.gov. This is where everyone gets there information to begin with, so trust the source.
Secondly, I wouldn’t not pay any mind to the forecasts that are out right now. Anything out past a week is worthless at this point. It might end up being right, but there is no skill to that forecast, it’s a random guess based on one or two model’s output. If you have ever seen The Butterfly Effect, you understand chaos theory. That is weather. Any slight difference to the model input compared with the actual observed conditions won’t be too different tomorrow, but after 5-6 days it could spiral out of control and produce to vastly different solutions. Start really paying attention to what is being said 4-5 days out, as it will be much closer to the actual race day conditions. I would bet on it not being nearly as hot as it was last week, that is very anomalous for this time of year, and for that to build in a second time in two weeks would be pretty rare.
Word.
I led a camp there a few weeks ago (same weekend as FISTapoloosa) and it rained all night Saturday night. We then ran that two loop course that was used in 2003 and I swear to god it’s harder than the regular course - up Beach Hill twice, into and out of “the pit” twice, it’s shorter but harder!
Ian
I liked the 2003 run course. Thanks to the cooler weather and all pavement run I PR’d there. Depending on your speed/wave, you also have a chance to see the pros go by. I had the top women go by me as I ran up Beach Hill…that’s when it hit me, “crap, we have to do this twice!”