Is there a McMillan Running Calculator for triathlons?
For example if someone did a Olympic distance triathlon in 3 hours and 25 minutes, what would you predict their 140.6 time to be (assuming appropriate training)?
Also how much does your marathon time (after doing the swim and bike) slow compared to your regular marathon time?
Thanks!
No… There are too many variables for the full distance race to estimate time from an Oly. If you have done a half, some say that it’s double the time for a 70.3 plus one hour. That gets you in the ballpark.
That being said, some people can race the 70.3 distance well, but not race well in the full. The only way to estimate the time is to do one, then compare your race times at other distances to measure progress.
I think with that Olympic time you’d be pushing the cut offs ? Depends how the Oly went and what the various splits were ?
Ps it’s probably a rough guess and I agree with Colin but you did ask if one existed , never used it myself
Cheers
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This works for some provided there is sufficient run volume in training leading up to the race. If not, then its worthless.
No… There are too many variables for the full distance race to estimate time from an Oly. If you have done a half, some say that it’s double the time for a 70.3 plus one hour. That gets you in the ballpark.
That being said, some people can race the 70.3 distance well, but not race well in the full. The only way to estimate the time is to do one, then compare your race times at other distances to measure progress.
On similar courses, in similar conditions, with similar fitness I’m 70.3 x 2 + 45 minutes.
I’d say Oly to IM would be somewhere around Oly x 4 + 45 to 60 minutes with similar course/conditions/fitness. So a 2:30 oly might put someone around 11 hours for an IM. So the OP would probably be around 15 hours for an IM. Sounds about right.
Like Colin stated though, some people can plow through an oly or even a 70.3 but wilt at 140.6. There are guys I can’t beat at an oly but I can beat them by one or two hours at an IM. Some people just aren’t meant for 140.6. Any errors in race day execution or deficiencies in training will almost always manifest themselves in a bad way at the 140.6 distance. That’s not always the case at 70.3, and certainly not at Oly.
I have come across a predictor based on a combination of Olympic and Marathon time. If you have both it will spit out a prediction. However I can’t remember where I found it unfortunately.
Regardless, it’s not exactly something you could take any confidence from.
As others have said, there are many variables and fast performances at shorter distances are no guarantee of a quick IM.
If it’s of any interest my performances in the last year include:
Olympic - 2:47 (relatively flat, river swim)
70.3 - 5:51 (relatively flat, 300m overlength sea swim)
140.6 - 13:08 (Hilly ride and I lost about 25mins on the run by forgetting to take salt - recovered before the end)
I reckon I was in good enough shape to do the 140.6 in about 12.5hrs but I had a bad day with a couple of bike problems and then a nutrition disaster on the run so I’ll never know! 4xOlympic +1hr seems a reasonable rule of thumb for similar terrain if you’ve got plenty training volume under your belt. I’d have come out at about 12:08 and the hillier terrain for the ride would account for perhaps another 15-20mins. Maybe make it 4xOlympic +90mins to be a bit more realistic or even +2hrs if your training volume was a bit low.
Thank for all the replies!
I’m hearing ROUGH estimate/rule of thumb: take your 70.3 time double it and add about an hour and that will be your 140.6 predicted time. I’m also seeing it appears you have to do roughly the same to go from Oly to 70.3. Interesting.
Any thoughts on marathon time stand-alone vs your 140.6 run time? Ie - if you normally run about a 4 hour marathon time what do you expect your run time to be in the 140.6?
Again thank you.
Ha!!! For giggles I tested that Q2 calculator. It “predicted” a time that was 2 hours slower than my actual time! In its defense, I don’t use a computrainer so my only bike input was a speed estimate. Seems a bike split from a triathlon of a shorter distance would have been more accurate.
As to the OP, a 3:25 Olympic time doesn’t give us a lot of information to work with, but as an absolute WAG, I’d multiply your swim split x 3, your bike split x 5, and your run split x 5 to give you a ballpark. For example, if your 3:25 included splits of :35/1:35/1:10 + 5, I would predict IM splits of 1:45/8/5:50 + 10 = 15:45.
There has been some good info on the forum regarding marathon v. IM marathon. I’m a half hour slower in an IM, but there are folks slower and faster than me whose delta is tighter. Good luck!
Ha!!! For giggles I tested that Q2 calculator. It “predicted” a time that was 2 hours slower than my actual time! In its defense, I don’t use a computrainer so my only bike input was a speed estimate. Seems a bike split from a triathlon of a shorter distance would have been more accurate.
As to the OP, a 3:25 Olympic time doesn’t give us a lot of information to work with, but as an absolute WAG, I’d multiply your swim split x 3, your bike split x 5, and your run split x 5 to give you a ballpark. For example, if your 3:25 included splits of :35/1:35/1:10 + 5, I would predict IM splits of 1:45/8/5:50 + 10 = 15:45.
There has been some good info on the forum regarding marathon v. IM marathon. I’m a half hour slower in an IM, but there are folks slower and faster than me whose delta is tighter. Good luck!
Thanks Hickory! I’ve been reading on the forum for a while but this was my first post and I appreciated all the replies. I must have missed the marathon v IM marathon posts - I’ll keep poking around. Thanks again!
Pretty impressed as to how accurate that is. I just fed in some stats from earlier in the season and got some very close data back. 
For example if someone did a Olympic distance triathlon in 3 hours and 25 minutes, what would you predict their 140.6 time to be (assuming appropriate training)?Active.com / Gale Bernhardt has one predictor formula for Olympic to 70.3. Triathlete.com / Susan Lacke has this for 140.6: Working with a database of marathon and Olympic PR’s, researchers determined a formula for determining a person’s likely finishing time in an Ironman:
MEN: Ironman race time (minutes) = 152.1 minutes + 1.964 × personal best time in Olympic-distance triathlon (minutes) + 1.332 × personal best time in a marathon (minutes)
WOMEN: Ironman race time (minutes) = 186.3 minutes + 1.595 × personal best time in Olympic-distance triathlon (minutes) + 1.318 × personal best time in a marathon (minutes)
For example if someone did a Olympic distance triathlon in 3 hours and 25 minutes, what would you predict their 140.6 time to be (assuming appropriate training)?Active.com / Gale Bernhardt has one predictor formula for Olympic to 70.3. Triathlete.com / Susan Lacke has this for 140.6: Working with a database of marathon and Olympic PR’s, researchers determined a formula for determining a person’s likely finishing time in an Ironman:
MEN: Ironman race time (minutes) = 152.1 minutes + 1.964 × personal best time in Olympic-distance triathlon (minutes) + 1.332 × personal best time in a marathon (minutes)
WOMEN: Ironman race time (minutes) = 186.3 minutes + 1.595 × personal best time in Olympic-distance triathlon (minutes) + 1.318 × personal best time in a marathon (minutes)
Very interesting - thank you!