So my pr for a half is 1:43. That was full effort with nothing to spare energy wise. On a comparative course, what should I be able to achieve for a full?
3:40 plus or minus 5 mins depending on your mileage/prep
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So just double plus about 10 minutes. Not sure I can hold that.
I’d say 3:50 is about right assuming you’re equally prepared. For reference, my first marathon I ran a half 2 months before in 1:45 then ran 3:53 for my marathon. In hindsight my volume was light, I was using a Higdon beginner plan. It got me to the finish though.
My Vdot computer says 3:33:58.
Good call Nick, I agree. 3:40 +/- 5 minutes
McMillan predicts a 3:36.
That is assuming you ran an all-out HM while properly trained for a marathon. It is my experience that people rarely hit that target. I would guess between a 3:40-3:45.
The half Mary was a year ago, all in all I would say similar fitness. My training for the full was a little light. I followed a three runs a week plan. We shall see, my goal is to be sub 4. I think it will all come down to the last few miles, hope I can keep it together.
Any swimming or biking with those three runs per week? What’s your average weekly volum? If its just three runs and nothing else, I’d bet against you going sub 4
Most weeks I also did one mtn bike ride.
The half a year ago wouldn’t reflect what your speed is today. 3 runs/week is definitely light unless you really put in some miles on those 3 days. Sub 4 is doable, but I’d say you’d be hard pressed to hit 3:45 on such little running. You might be on pace through 20 miles, then the wheels will fall off. What was your weekly mileage in the past 2 months?
The half Mary was a year ago, all in all I would say similar fitness. My training for the full was a little light. I followed a three runs a week plan. We shall see, my goal is to be sub 4. I think it will all come down to the last few miles, hope I can keep it together.
The half Mary was a year ago, all in all I would say similar fitness. My training for the full was a little light. I followed a three runs a week plan. We shall see, my goal is to be sub 4. I think it will all come down to the last few miles, hope I can keep it together.
How many mpw did you avg? Max mpw?
I’d say 3:50 is about right assuming you’re equally prepared. For reference, my first marathon I ran a half 2 months before in 1:45 then ran 3:53 for my marathon. In hindsight my volume was light, I was using a Higdon beginner plan. It got me to the finish though.
+1
You’re giving us relatively little to go on.
weekly mileage for last 3 months?number and frequency of long runs 19 miles or longer?recent race times?how long have you been running?how consistent has your running been this year?
Sub 4 should be a fait accompli off a 1:43 half, though if you’ve skimped in too many of the above, it could be a struggle.
I would say my weekly average was about 30 miles. My long distance runs included a 17, 18, and two 20s, about 4 15s and a bunch of 13s. However due to injury, I lost two weeks 3 months prior to race day
If this is you first marathon you are in for a big surprise. Not being negative, but do not set your goals too high. With your half time and lack of weekly volume if you break 4 hours that would be great. I would start the race at a 4 hour pace and adjust from there. Good luck, it will be a great experience!
double the half time plus 10% of the half time is a bit more realistic than double plus 10 minutes. but for 1:43 half, it works out the same 
so 3:26 + 10.3 minutes = 3:36:20
the calculators by Greg Macmillan or Jack Daniels are better than simple arithmetic.
all of the above assume similar fitness, similar race conditions, and that you have the appropriate training.
If you don’t want to depend on calculations and extrapolations, then Yasso 800’s are a pretty good direct test of your marathon fitness. Its not perfect - a good 800/1500 runner who has not done much long run training, would probably fare a lot better on the 800s than in a marathon.
remember that in a marathon, like ironman, there is a lot more time for things to go bad than in shorter distances.
With your volume, I’d be careful you don’t injure yourself. At 30mpw, it will really hurt. I’m thinking you need to get to runing 5-6 days a week and 45-55mpw to have the durability.
I am actually going to play devil’s advocate to a lot of the comments on this thread. You will easily break four hours–I ran 3:34:54 on a fairly hilly course (NYC) with A LOT fewer long runs than you have done (and zero cross training). Hopefully this does not come off like the typical Slowtwitch “back door brag,” not that a 3:34 is anything to brag about in my opinion. If you can run 1:43 for a half, I am guessing you run 3:45-3:50 for the full marathon at worst. Good luck!
Don’t believe the calculators unless you have proven them accurate…racing a stand alone marathon is a bitch…its 20 miles of hope and 6 miles of reality. You and I are about the same on the half but my best Marathon time is 3:43. I have never been able to run well the last 6 miles - its just hard and you will hurt. I think a lot depend on how much mileage one can handle - I can’t get much more than 35 miles in a week before I start getting hurt.