Predict my CIM time. Some facts:
· The California International Marathon is on December 8 (less than 7 weeks away)
· Never run an open marathon (not a very encouraging fact to start)
· Ran 3:39’ marathon in IMMT - hamstrings cramps slowed me down a bit (this was on Aug 18 after a swim time of 1:10 and a bike split of 5:50’ )
· Mileage in preparation for IMMT: Weekly average mileage was 30-40 miles, with long runs of around 12 miles (but those were quality miles, usually 1hr at moderate pace and last 30’ at race HM pace or faster). Only a couple of times the long run extended to an easy 2hrs run. As you can see, the mileage was relatively low and it was low (but consistent) for the last 3 years
· Running Frequency in preparation for IMMT: 3 times a week (ran only twice a week during recovery weeks every fourth week)
· Rested for 3 weeks after IMMT, before ramping up the mileage for CIM
· Mileage for CIM pre-injury: First marathon training week (week of Sep 9) was 40 miles with a long run of 18 miles on Sep 15. Second week was 53 miles with a long run of 19 miles on Sep 22
· ****Knee Injury on Sep 22: Suffered left knee injury during long run on Sep 22. Physical Therapist says the injury was a combination of severe IT band syndrome and inflamed meniscus, probably caused by ramping up mileage too fast. As a result, I had to stop all running for 4 weeks.
· Hard/Key Workouts post-injury: I have continued executing the original marathon training plan (Tuesday Tempo Workout, Friday Speed/Specific Intervals, and Sunday Long Run) in the elliptical machine and/or in the water.
· Current running post-injury: Last week I was able to run for 40 minutes without pain for the first time, and yesterday I did my Tuesday Tempo workout in the treadmill. Granted, the treadmill was set with an incline of 5 and the speed never exceeded 6.5 miles/hr. Oct 25 Update: TEMPO RUN: 50’ Treadmill @ 4.5 Incline: 25’ build up from 4 Miles/hr to 7 Miles/hr and then held speed of 7 Miles/Hr for 20’ with HR 160-165bpm
· Plan post-injury: The plan for the next 7 weeks is to do the Tuesday Tempo Workout and Friday Specific Intervals using the **treadmill **while gradually increasing the speed and reducing the inclination
· Long Run post-injury: The long runs (2:30’ plus) will be done in the elliptical for precaution
· Plan Fillers: This week I started introducing very easy jogs on the treadmill (incline 4+) of less than 5 miles on Monday and Wednesday
· Target Running Mileage post-injury: Difficult to predict as it will depend on progress. I suspect I may be able to reach a running volume of 30 miles per week, before CIM week. I know how important consistent high mileage is
· Age: 38. Height: 5.8 feet. Weight: 138 lbs (135lbs is the target weight for CIM).
· Running style: glider/shuffler with a cadence of 100spm.
· Race Execution Plan: Given the injury, I will not try to be a hero, but I would like to BQ with 3:15’ minus 2’. Target pace of 7’:30”/Mile for the first half section (1:38 time for the first half) and then adjust for the second half depending on feel. Do you think I can pull it off?
I will report back with my actual CIM time
3:21:00
good luck
“The long runs (2:30 plus) will be done in the elliptical for precaution”
Wow that is impressive, I would go crazy inside on a elliptical for that long 
.
given the low mileage and the run injury, i think 3:15 is pretty optimistic. I ran CIM about 15 years ago, and (assuming the course is the same and my memory is sort-of reliable), it is a point-to-point net downhill with a lot of little down sections in the first half. the downhills in the first half (1) are going to be hard on your knee and (2) make it hard to negative split the course. Doing long runs on an elliptical or in a pool is probably good for fitness, but it does not prepare your legs for the pounding in a marathon.
ps, i also ran 3:39 at Tremblant this year but was slower on the bike so ended up several minutes behind you. I am quite sure that i could not pull off a 3:15 with the training that you are getting between Tremblant and CIM. Maybe i could go 3:25 at the very best, if everything goes well for the next 8 weeks and i have a very, very good race.
I appreciate the feedback. I felt I had a shot to BQ at CIM right after IMMT. But I have to agree it was unrealistic to think I could BQ at CIM without being able to do the appropriate running mileage.
I’ve learned a lot from my knee injury. For instance, I learned I should have ramped up the running volume much more gradually (weekly mileage increase of less then 10%), instead of jumping so quickly to 50+ miles per week
3:21:00
good luck
“The long runs (2:30 plus) will be done in the elliptical for precaution”
Wow that is impressive, I would go crazy inside on a elliptical for that long
I’m a “can do” person. And, I want others to be as well.
If the weather is like last year - forget about any time “dreams.” I live 2 blocks from the 5k point and (usually) try to get my lazy butt out of bed to watch. Last year it was raining so hard I thought my property was going to flood (I was madly shoveling a drainage ditch during the race 
). My neighbor had a old college buddy fly in from Kansas to BQ with an anticipated time just under 3 hours. He gave it the old college try but was “mission impossible.”
When I did the event ('88 - 90) the weather was textbook perfect - so, bear in mind the weather can be a huge variable.
The things you can control - like your training, seem light for me. My best marathon was at CIM; came after multiple weeks of 50 - 90 mile weeks (kinda classic marathon training), and at age 26 - no aches or pains. It’s a funny distance the marathon. It’s been said in different ways a million times. But for me that one “good race” (My PR) came when I was @ mile 20 and actually felt pretty good. I know my body needed the acclimation to long runs week in and week out to be conditioned for that effort.
Two great things you have in your favor are: You seem to have a marathoners build (I don’t). And, your exposure to IM’s will help you prepare for the distance.
Best wishes for a rewarding event. I’ll hope for great weather, and will try to get my lazy butt out of bed to cheer everybody on.
keith
Thanks Keith for the positive message. I agree the weather will be a key determining factor on race day. Many BQ dreams will be trashed at CIM if it rains like last year. Running in Canada has prepared me well for very cold conditions but not for heavy rain.
I know I am missing the pounding resistance adaptation that you get from consistent running mileage. One thing I’ve been doing is standing on my feet a lot during the day. I have a stand-up desk at work so I am spending 9+ hours standing up barefoot. I heard from ultra runners that " extending the time on your feet" is key for them, granted, ultra-running is a different sport as they run vey slowly, maybe at 10’+/mile pace, for 20+ hours.
I have a friend who does 1 to 2 IM’s a year and he seems to have no problems with low 3’s in marathons within a few months after an IM. He used to do 11 hr IM’s and low to sub 3 hr marathons at the very tough Big Sur (age mid to late 40’s BTW), but he used to be a runner first so many years of running experience. That said, once he began to switch from the IM to the marathon, he would get quality runs in. Yes, tempo run, but also many marathon pace long runs up to 16 miles with 2 mile warm up and cool down. He did commonly run ~30 miles/week, but then he also kept up the biking. When he did run, it was always quality only.
I think you have a shot, but if you don’t get outside and get your legs used to the asphalt pounding, it’s going to be a long day. I’ve done CIM 6 times and it’s a great fast course. I’ve had great weather and very bad weather. If you think last year was bad, you should have seen the El Nino year in 1997 when Sacramento had record rainfall…and I swear it came down during the marathon. Crazy, but I actually PR’d that day with a 2:56 and my coach said I probably could have done 2:52 if the weather had been better. Good luck.
Your post is bringing my BQ hope back to life.
I’ve just jogged on the treadmill for 15 minutes wearing my Vibram 5-fingers to work on my pounding adaptation – very slow though at 5 miles/hr and 5 incline
And then added 15 minutes using the stationary bike to work on fast turnover -at 115rpm-. My natural running cadence is 100+ spm. I thought that by using the bike I could work on my fast turnover without the need to do speed intervals in the track. If I try to do track intervals at a pace of 5K pace or faster my meniscus is going to pop like champaign cork, LOL!
Just a quick update on my preparation for CIM in a few weeks. This morning I completed a "TEMPO" RUN of 50’ in the Treadmill with 4.5 Incline
I reduced the treadmill inclination a notch from 5.0 to 4.5 and increased the speed from 6.5Miles/Hr to 7.0Miles/Hr
First 25’ warm-up building up speed from 4 Miles/hr to 7 Miles/hr
And then held speed of 7 Miles/Hr for 20’ with HR 160-165bpm which is approx my Marathon Pace Heart Rate.
I felt no pain, but I still feel there is something funny going on in that knee. Eventually, I will have to **run outdoors on flat/downhill roads to feel the pounding, **probably in a couple of weeks.
Last week my come-back plan was more like Ryan Hall’s faith-based method, but now I think I am developing a sort of systematic running injury recovery protocol that hopefully may work for others.
You made a believer out of me 
from our days at PWC till now. confident you can do it if you continue to make gains like this. Keep working and remember slow and steady wins the race with recovery. Also make sure you are not compensating with your other leg. Often, when one leg is slightly injured, without realizing it we spend weeks compensating with the other leg and next thing you know the other leg is injured. Great seeing you in Tremblant, and Cass and I are cheering for you.
Prediction 3:11!