Yesterday I set off on a mission to find five things customers needed. I only found one. It isn;t fair to the vendors to say what they were, but suffice it to say it is the stuff we all want. None of it exists other than on websites and in brochures. No new, cool handlebars, no new cool wheels, no new, cool frames. It is always the same answer: “Ahh, I think we may see some of those around January…” Then January becomes February, February becomes April and April becomes “New for 2005!” at Interbike next year. I wonder how much of this stuff will really materialize this year? It is so frustrating. If all the stuff really existed I would be so rich.
Tom, I couldn’t agree more! A week ago i decided to “assist” my sister in shopping for a Christmas present for me (OK I have a cool sister 
), anyway all the stuff was Tri related and I gave her a list of websites with 4 items to look at. When she attempted to order she was told the top 3 items are “out of stock” until the end of January 2004 (I think they mean not released yet!). Now we are not talking $$m here… but I wonder how much some companies will loose thinking that Tri goodies should only be available pre- and during season and not during the “off-season”. It’s time to think about what you “need” for next season…
I think your vaporware analogy is good, so let’s look at software, where it comes from. In software, somebody comes up with what seems like a good idea, gets someone to agree, then they have someone prototype it. In both software and manufacturing ‘prototype’ usually means “looks cool but doesn’t work for $h1t.” So you leave Interbike, or look at the 2004 catalog, and assume that this stuff will be available by year end. But they still have to make the design one that will hold up under the strain of actual use, and that turns out to be much harder than originally thought. Contrary to popular project managers’ belief, setting an arbitrary ship date does not mean that a product will be ready on that date.
This has been happening with video games a lot in the past couple of years. Only one of the 4 games I have bought this year was less than 1 year late. Two more will lose 40% of their sales because they are releasing after the holiday season instead of late November(which is the sweet spot for video game releases.) They are creating a huge demand, but for a product they can’t deliver.
So I think you have that to deal with, plus the fact that by the time these guys book their time with the manufacturer, get all the supplies, and actually take delivery of a shippable product, you’re 6 months behind where you should be, and everybody is riding someone else’s wheels(for example).
That’s my take on what is happening.
Yeah, same thing for bikes. Vendors collect paper at Interbike for an idea, take the paper to the bank and say, “Hey, I have orders for $300,000.00 worth of this stuff but I need a loan to finance the production of it- can you guys loan me the money against these orders?”
By the time the deal goes down the stuff actually becomes reality in June.
I have been waiting for my Reynolds Aero Pro Ouzo in 43mm Rake for months for my P3. I feel some of your pain.