Pacing Advice for Hilly 10k?

nanban_ronin · October 16, 2024, 11:33pm

I’m doing a hilly road 10k on Sunday and I’m seeking advice on how to approach pacing with a power meter. I’ve never run a standalone 10k but my original plan was to maintain between 320-330w, based on the Stryd app’s analysis stating I can maintain 325w for a 10k.

However, this course is quite technical:

The first 1.5 miles is a gradual uphill, with an average +1.5% grade.
Then there’s a short -3% downhill that leads into a 0.2 mile +10% climb.
The next 2.5 miles are steep ups and downs, with the steepest climbs at +8%.
This is followed by a -11% descent.
The rest of the course is a gradual net -1% downhill.

Here’s the course map. To confirm, this is not a trail run; the course is on a combination of roads and paved trails.

Below is the profile from Training Peaks. I did the course Sunday in 48min, with a NP of 262w (dark blue shading = elevation, purple line = power).

I use a single power target range for most races, but is there a different approach for a hilly race? Do I go out easier (maybe 310-320w), work the uphills in the 330w range, then blast the final 2 miles at 330w?

As background, I just ran a 1:19:30 half marathon 10 days ago on a flat course, with a NP of ~305w.

desert_dude · October 17, 2024, 1:55pm

Hmmm this is a good challenge to puzzle over. Since I don’t have your numbers to look at and you’ve only given a snippet of your training numbers I won’t put specific numbers in.

I’ll start by saying the biggest mistakes you can make will be in that first 3-7 minutes by going out too fast/running with too much power. Maybe the biggest benefit of the Stryd. I will also say/bet that a lot of people will make that mistake. This may be a race where you let it come back to you vs forcing people to step up initially.

Since the initial uphill is gradual I might use PRE along with power for this. I’d want to run under threshold power just because that .2 10% climb will force you into vo2 territory. Recover on the downhill to under threshold.

Then I’d break it into that 2.5 up/down section with an aim to run at higher power over the back 2k of it vs the front 2k. BUild into it as many people will fade as the duration of this section goes on. No one remembers the early leaders but they do remember the race winner.

The 11% downhill you just have to get down then start crushing it at threshold slightly above threshold for the next if my math is correct 1.5ish miles. I’d probaby target the initial part right at 6min and want to work down to 5:45 as the distance increased. It’s going to roughly be 8-9 minutes of running. I’d aim to be just under vo2 effort for the initial part working into vo2 effort over the last 5-6 min.

That’s a rough stab at it on <1 cup of morning tea. Hope that helps

Tom_hampton · October 17, 2024, 7:26pm

I have nothing to add beyond DD’s excellent advice.

What’s your experience with running hills similar to the course: grade/length/quantity?

Downhill at >10% (or even >6%) can be a bitch without practice. I love the speed, but man it can mess with your head to really let it fly without practice.

nanban_ronin · October 18, 2024, 4:03am

Thanks for the advice. It’ll be a struggle, but I’ll try and reign myself in during the latter half of the race, then start building up shortly after 3 miles.

I haven’t tested my fitness since June because I’m frankly not seriously training at the moment, but it sounds like I might want to hold my half marathon effort (6:00 min/mile) during the first half. I think psychologically it’s been hard for me to accept that I might do 6:00 min miles in a 10k, but with such a hilly course I suppose it can’t be helped if I want to run smart.

nanban_ronin · October 18, 2024, 4:14am

I did the San Francisco Marathon this past July. That course had around 1300ft of elevation change; looking at Training Peaks, the longest single decent was 0.8 miles at -5%, the longest net descent was 1.8 miles at -3%, and the steepest descents were -7 to -8% and I reached a max 4:10 min/mile pace.

I did run this upcoming 10k course recently and the -11% felt pretty insane, to the point where it felt safest to try and hold back.

Tom_hampton · October 18, 2024, 5:41am

I think you’ll be fine. You have good fitness, and some experience with the course.

These types of races… Looking forward to the race report.

kajet · October 18, 2024, 12:40pm

This is a very interesting post and the only thing I can contribute is this: what is 5 watts anyway? I’d struggle to stay in the 320-330 band even on a pancake flat course if I was targeting 325. It’s a measurement error.

curtish26 · October 18, 2024, 8:38pm

I have never owned a power meter or Stryd, but I thought the value of a pacing by watts is that you could keep the effort even by keeping the watts even (i.e. 325W going uphill is a slower pace than 325W on flat terrain, and 325W on flat terrain is slow than 325W going downhill). Even effort is the pace strategy that most are going for on hilly courses. So, I thought the only questions would be 1) How accurate is Stryd prescribing the 325W? and 2) "How close can you stay to 325W when you are racing on hilly course? Judging from other’s answers I take it that keeping the watts even isn’t the way others with the Stryd try to racing. Why is that not the case? Help me understand. I am a potential Stryd user that is curious about running power and how it is used.

Tom_hampton · October 18, 2024, 9:58pm

What you say is generally true. It gives you the ability to hold a steady effort…avoiding the race-day tendency to go out hard and over-cook it early, uphill, etc.

However, there are times when it is strategically advantageous to expend more power for increased gains. Generally, its where the time gained per watt expended is higher than under other conditions. Fighting gravity is one of those conditions where the time gained is higher per watt vs when fighting aerodynamics. This effect is more pronounced while cycling than running. But, its not zero. Additionally, in shorter races you can take a few more risks by going over threshold. This is usually gated around +/- 10%-ish limits. There are calculators out there that can help determine the ideal power-pacing strategy that take into account grade, and weather conditions…including “real-time” wind-forecasts.

nanban_ronin · October 20, 2024, 10:11pm

Race Report

Summary: Took it easy going out on the first mile, tried and almost failed to restrain myself on the hills, but ended up having enough in the tank to finish fast on the final downhill-to-flat 1.5 miles. I primarily used RPE as my guiding indicator, but did glance at my watch from time to time to check my power and adjust if necessary.

First 5k was 19:16, second 5k was 17:25. With a 1.57% Pw:Hr ratio, it seems like I ran slightly better during the second half. Normalized Graded Pace (NGP) supports this; NGP for the first 5k was 5:50 min/mile, second 5k was 5:46 min/mile.

Shoes: Asics Metapeed Edge Paris

Mile 1 (6:10, NP 318w): During the first 0.25 mile, I checked my power meter and saw I was in the 330-340w range. I backed off and checked the power meter again at the 0.75 mile mark and saw 290w. Time to pick it up!

Mile 2 (5:54, NP 331w): I took advantage of a good downhill before tackling the race’s biggest climb. I totally ignored the power meter and used RPE on the ascent.

Mile 3 (6:32, NP 328w): I wasn’t expecting this to be the hardest mile. RPE felt higher than I wanted during this part of the race. I started the worry I was going too hard.

Mile 4 (5:56, NP 325w): I initially though I’d start working harder at the 5k mark, but I felt like I was near my limit. I maintained what I though was a similar effort, again using RPE and not looking at power.

Mile 5 (5:36, NP 324w): I knew this mile would have some big downhills, including one at -11%. I pushed hard on the downhills, doing my best arm flailing to maintain balance.

Mile 6 (5:28, 334w): This net downhill mile made it feel like I was doing a different sport. It was a totally different sensation to try and increase my cadence and shift my foot strike to more midfoot so I could load the carbon plate. My Asics Metaspeed Edge’s were absolutely phenomenal at this pace.

Finish (NP 351w): Coming into the finish I was starting to experience a little GI distress, but it went away quickly. Without any steep hills I felt like I was gradually getting stronger, so I had a good finish. There were no competitors around me, so I didn’t sprint.

Data from Training Peaks:

As always, I appreciate the ST community’s advice and feedback!

Tom_hampton · October 20, 2024, 11:20pm

Man…that is a really solid, well executed race plan! Nice work.