Really long
I think you have to look at the very big picture, which starts about 1300 years ago. An individual, Mohammed, roped together, numerous warring tribes and united them (after conquering them) under one faith that, from my limited reading and perspective, was built more on the individual than anything else. Almost immediately after his death, the cracks started showing. The Sunni versus Shiite schism arose from an argument over which grandson (one legitimate, one illegitimate) should lead the faithful. One of the grandsons was murdered, forever cementing the feud. Is this anyway to lead the faithful?
Islam achieved its pinnacle of achievement around 1100 AD, a time when Western civilization was cloaked in the Dark Ages. It was the retained knowledge of the Islamic world that instigated the recovery of the West. But since that time, in my opinion, the Islamic culture has seen only decline. For example, as I understand it, in Saudi Arabia science is taught now in the context of “this fact or that fact is so because Allah wills it”. What ever inspired this culture to greatness a thousand years ago has long been lost.
Muslims seem to be incredibly incensed when a Muslim brother is killed by a non-Muslim. Yet, innumerable Muslims are killed by other Muslims on a regular basis without so much as the blink of an eye. Did other Islamic countries seem terribly concerned over the fate of Iraqi citizens during Saddam Hussein’s rule? It wasn’t evident to me. Sunni ruled Iraq attempted an invasion of Shiite controlled Iran, resulting in over a million casualties. Iraq steamrolled Kuwait, an Islamic neighbor, and brutalized Kuwaiti citizens, while Saudi Arabia held its breath and looked to the West for help. There are almost weekly incidents in Pakistan of killings and bombings of Sunnis by Shiites and vice versa by militant factions of each sect.
Al Qaeda and current Iraqi insurgents conduct bombing tactics that routinely kill far more civilians, many of them Muslims, than targets. Many attacks are directly targeted at Iraqis who associate with the Coalition. In a personal, emotional opinion, Islamic extremists are most successful in attacking unarmed civilians, particularly women and children, than military targets. The days of Saladin are definitely over.
Muslims seem to have little respect for life, even if it is another Muslim. It should therefore be less of a surprise that Islam, as a culture, is in conflict with Judaism in Israel, with Hinduism in India, with Christianity in the former Yugoslav Republic, Nigeria and the Philippines, as well as the open, “immoral” culture of the Western world in general and of the United States in particular. France and Germany are banning headscarves, a case of closing the barn door too late, especially since it is also the wrong barn. Spain folded on a horrific series of bombs, but still doesn’t grasp that its actions has little to do with what Islamist extremists are planning and will continue to do, let alone the fact that the very act of folding will encourage additional violent acts. In the coming years, you will also hear of and see more of the growing conflict between the eastern reaches of Islamic culture with western China. Simply put, no other culture in the world is at odds with as many neighbors.
The foundation of the Islamic world appears to be fundamentally flawed as it is based on a human being, and all humans have their flaws. Literal and inflexible interpretations of the Koran, which is based on the sayings of Mohammed, further pins the Islamic culture to archaic thinking and limits growth and understanding. Even worse, some of the more outrageous laws of Sharia are incorrectly attributed to the Koran and are therefore protected from rational review.
A good analogy may be the decline of the U.S.S.R., only that cycle took less than sixty years from the peak to complete. The Islamic culture has stagnated for over five hundred years. The quality of life at the tail end of the Soviet Union was grim, with severe oppression, shortages, limited possibilities, and little hope. Still, some people prospered in the system and would lose that prosperity to the benefit of the masses if change occurred, and fought for the status quo. These people produced propaganda to counter the Western propaganda as to the quality of life on each side of the Iron Curtain. Other voices from the west side of the Curtain chimed in in support of the U.S.S.R. for whatever reasons. In the end, it was very clear as to who was telling the truth.
Today, we have the Islamic press, with Al Jazzera leading the way and numerous other Western voices, including France and surprisingly Russia (not so surprisingly if you look at their financial involvement with the Hussain led Iraqi government), and apparently even some Slow Twitchers. It is a similar argument, should we, a free and democratic country intervene to improve the lot of the average oppressed Iraqi citizen? Do we intervene in order to improve our security?
In my humble opinion, the answer to the first question is regrettably no, because in the long run I doubt anything will improve based on the above discussion. Nothing will improve in any Islamic country with a strong fundamental Islamic culture until Islam either reinvents itself or dies, or maybe both. I say this even after one of my brothers, an Army reservist, spent seven months there and returned still inspired to improve the lives of the average Iraqi citizen.
For the second question, I say a definite yes. Many of you may have forgotten the Persian Gulf incident during the Iraq-Iran war in which Iraq targeted a U.S. warship with a Harpoon type missile, killing I believe 37 U.S. sailors. It was claimed to be an accident. Whether or not intending to conduct any further direct actions against U.S. interests, I fully believe Hussein supported Al Qaeda efforts against the U.S. in any manner possible. I doubt the complete destruction of Al Qaeda would be possible with Hussein still in power.
I do not see a positive future for Iraq in the near term after the departure of the U.S. I think it will sink into the muck or the desert equivalent. In which case, the sooner our guys leave the better, to reduce our casualties. Our guys are much more valuable then this cause. The security threat has been reduced, it will remain to be seen what arises as the vacuum is filled by the new Iraqi government.
Now, can we just get back to triathlon stuff??? I really do hate politics. Really really