You’re crazy if you think the French would make a course for Cassandra over any of their four guys who could medal. (Coninx, Bergere, Luis, Le Corre…all of whom have podiumed at an Olympic distance WTCS event)
Cassandra’s best ever WTCS level Olympic distances is 8th place.
She is very good, but 2 hours is not 1 hour.
Not to mention Lombardi (best young triathlete breaking through at the moment) and Periault (been on the podium a few times herself)
Jess Learmonth also honoured with an MBE (Member Of The British Empire)
Anyone know what she’s planning on doing when coming back from injury? Is she going to make the Brit Olympic selection team traditionally have to pick 3 from 4!
More than 4: GTB and Potter seem secure. Then Mathias, Waugh, Rainsley, Learmonth. Holland and Stanford retired has made it a bit easier for the picks. Any notice about LCB to give it a try? I think she could make the team.
Jess Learmonth also honoured with an MBE (Member Of The British Empire)
Anyone know what she’s planning on doing when coming back from injury? Is she going to make the Brit Olympic selection team traditionally have to pick 3 from 4!
More than 4: GTB and Potter seem secure. Then Mathias, Waugh, Rainsley, Learmonth. Holland and Stanford retired has made it a bit easier for the picks. Any notice about LCB to give it a try? I think she could make the team.
At the moment I think it’s a prety easy pick GTB, Potter and Coldwell (you forget her)
I’m guessing one from Waugh, Rainsley, Mathias may break through (hopefully they all do) and start getting on the odd podium next year maybe.
No idea what LCB is doing, I think if she had any chance of making the team she needed to drop LC and focus on ITU this year, hasn’t she got points to make up or can Brit Tri put who they want in? Her bike handling is a concern also.
I’ll agree with the consensus that “lock†was too strong a statement.
The basis for my statement is it appears to me that, much like Duffy in 2017, Knibb has elevated her fitness level.
Maybe she needs one or two more races to “prove†this true.
So I am modifying that statement: I provisionally believe that Knibb is a podium lock going forward.
I watched the first 70 minutes of the race this morning. I DO NOT know what happens yet, but I have to say, I went from “Geez I am an idiot” to “okay, not such an idiot” pretty quickly.
I am looking forward to reading the 2 pages of commentary on this race. I’ll watch the last 40 minutes or so tonight.
Jess Learmonth also honoured with an MBE (Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire)FTFY Many proud and now independent nations were ‘Members’ of the British Empire; thankfully now an anachronism.
No idea what LCB is doing, I think if she had any chance of making the team she needed to drop LC and focus on ITU this year, hasn’t she got points to make up or can Brit Tri put who they want in? Her bike handling is a concern also.Yeah. I wonder why Charles didn’t just really focus on short distance this year. It’s not as if she was injured or anything.
The only conceivable reason British Triathlon might even politely return her call is because of her huge following. There is a surfeit of British female talent at short (indeedy all) distance even if Learmonth doesn’t come back: there will be no spare starting slot for Charles in any race. 2021 has been and gone.
https://triathlon.org/...onship_series/female
Even without the injury, was she planning on Olympics? I think she needed to go all in and put 100% focus.
Her cameo performances were very good, her and Learmoth could have guaranteed to string out the field in the swim and 3 British women in the front pack with a sizable gap, the blueprint was there.
Monty,
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this matter;) //
I dont think we are really that far apart. I understand Varga could blast off and solo most of his swims, but he eventually figured out that was not in his best interest. So he would break the back of the main field, and just allow a small group to swim with him, and then work together on the bike. That is “exactly” what Vince did in this race. And it is no small feat to even be able to do this, many have tried, and most have failed. Do we know for sure that Vince could not have gone faster? Maybe, maybe not, but doesn’t really matter does it? He like Varga, used his overpowering swim speed to set the race up exactly like he wanted to. A perfect race actually, against many of the best runners in the sport.
So for me, he is certainly in Vargas league(not better or faster), and even if not quite as fast, could certainly hold his feet, even if he put on the drop everyone afterburners. I really dont know how fast he is in the pool these days, but appears he is at his best ever to do what he did. I would be interested in some of his sets lately, anyone know??
Monty,
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this matter;) //
I dont think we are really that far apart. I understand Varga could blast off and solo most of his swims, but he eventually figured out that was not in his best interest. So he would break the back of the main field, and just allow a small group to swim with him, and then work together on the bike. That is “exactly” what Vince did in this race. And it is no small feat to even be able to do this, many have tried, and most have failed. Do we know for sure that Vince could not have gone faster? Maybe, maybe not, but doesn’t really matter does it? He like Varga, used his overpowering swim speed to set the race up exactly like he wanted to. A perfect race actually, against many of the best runners in the sport.
So for me, he is certainly in Vargas league(not better or faster), and even if not quite as fast, could certainly hold his feet, even if he put on the drop everyone afterburners. I really dont know how fast he is in the pool these days, but appears he is at his best ever to do what he did. I would be interested in some of his sets lately, anyone know??
I think one thing to add is Varga was not always all out on the swim, as his job was to domestique the Brownlees. I’m pretty sure in one of the races he took shit for pushing the pace too much, to the point AB couldn’t hold the feet. As a side word on the street in the UK is the Brownlees pool times were much more modest than you’d expect, yet obviously different class in OW.
I get the impression Varga would probably have an advantage over Luis but really hard to say. They both do the same thing - rip the race apart on the swim. But Luis is the complete package.
I’m sure I’ll be corrected on this, but I can’t remember Luis leading out the swim before until Bermuda? Varga has only done 1 ITU race that I can think of in years, if Luis has prime Varga swim ability he’s not been using it (knowing what danger lies in a chase pack)
As I said, he’s had a run injury so his swim right now is probably as good as its ever been.
Luis has always been a top swimmer but look at his swim times from the 2018 Hamburg race till now. Fastest swim split in the majority of the races including the Tokyo Olympics.
https://www.triathlon.org/athletes/results/11143/vincent_luis
I’m sure I’ll be corrected on this, but I can’t remember Luis leading out the swim before until Bermuda? Varga has only done 1 ITU race that I can think of in years, if Luis has prime Varga swim ability he’s not been using it (knowing what danger lies in a chase pack) //
Well yes, except for just about every race he does. Have a look at the guys that are on his feet in the olympics, where I guess he didnt really use his swim either? And I guess you dont watch ITU much, how about Super League? There he routinely leads every single swim too, and only the very top swimmers can stay with him for even a 300. Honestly, he is pushing the swim pace in just about every race he has ever done, it is not some new phenomena. Just that since he has been out for awhile(running with the Kenyans) I suppose folks just forgot how fast and talented this guy really is. He wasn’t even supposed to race the olympics, but did it injured just because, the olympics and all.
I really hope he can hold himself together for this short run up to his home town olympic games, I love his racing style…
I’m sure I’ll be corrected on this, but I can’t remember Luis leading out the swim before until Bermuda? Varga has only done 1 ITU race that I can think of in years, if Luis has prime Varga swim ability he’s not been using it (knowing what danger lies in a chase pack)
As I said, he’s had a run injury so his swim right now is probably as good as its ever been.
yeah, i’m sure someone will manage to. and maybe even be nice and condescending about it, too!
Also keep in mind swims and who leads them is important and also can be unimportant based on the race. Bermuda is important because it was an open swim w some ocean swell chop, so those conditions + bike course gives incentive to really push the pace. Yokohama when it’s an flat sea and wetsuit the “advantage†gained just likely isn’t there.
It’ll be interesting what happens w Bermuda race. As I said it’s gotta be the craziest thing to have an entire place to basically cheer 1 person. Has to be cool as hell, and it’s legendary to then back it up with a W. But I don’t see Bermuda staying on the schedule post Duffy.
Keep in mind itu is a very particular sub segment of the sport and this thread is made up of basically the same dozen or so people who yes watch the sport, support it, and have some basic understanding of it at minimum.
Also keep in mind swims and who leads them is important and also can be unimportant based on the race. Bermuda is important because it was an open swim w some ocean swell chop, so those conditions + bike course gives incentive to really push the pace. Yokohama when it’s an flat sea and wetsuit the “advantage†gained just likely isn’t there.
It’ll be interesting what happens w Bermuda race. As I said it’s gotta be the craziest thing to have an entire place to basically cheer 1 person. Has to be cool as hell, and it’s legendary to then back it up with a W. But I don’t see Bermuda staying on the schedule post Duffy.
I think it has served well as the alternative to Kitzbuhel. I really like that 20th place came 5 minutes back! I feel like they need at least one really hard bike on the circuit.
Keep in mind itu is a very particular sub segment of the sport and this thread is made up of basically the same dozen or so people who yes watch the sport, support it, and have some basic understanding of it at minimum.//
Of course, but I had always put Jackets into the category of someone who does watch the races, and he usually has a very specific take on them. Just seemed out of place that he didn’t know that Luis was one of the top swimmers in the sport, took me by surprise. I enjoy bantering with those “dozen” or so, even if our takes differ from time to time. I apologize Jackets for my tone in my response to you, caught me up at a stressful moment in my day…
So I know different course coming up in Abu Dhabi, but does Luis with the help of a couple others now, go for an elite break on the bike again? It of course has less chance to actually work on easier courses, but they kind of have to go for it anyway, dont they? With his run back it is very dangerous to give him even 15 or 20 seconds. That time with the Kenyans in the mountains with no outside distractions, seemed to have paid some dividends. He seemed in control the entire run, and appeared to have plenty in the tank for any last lap surges. And from past super league sprint finishes, he seems to have that piece of the puzzle too, so perhaps a Yee, Wilde, Blu, sprint finish??
Keep in mind itu is a very particular sub segment of the sport and this thread is made up of basically the same dozen or so people who yes watch the sport, support it, and have some basic understanding of it at minimum.//
Of course, but I had always put Jackets into the category of someone who does watch the races, and he usually has a very specific take on them. Just seemed out of place that he didn’t know that Luis was one of the top swimmers in the sport, took me by surprise. I enjoy bantering with those “dozen” or so, even if our takes differ from time to time. I apologize Jackets for my tone in my response to you, caught me up at a stressful moment in my day…
So I know different course coming up in Abu Dhabi, but does Luis with the help of a couple others now, go for an elite break on the bike again? It of course has less chance to actually work on easier courses, but they kind of have to go for it anyway, dont they? With his run back it is very dangerous to give him even 15 or 20 seconds. That time with the Kenyans in the mountains with no outside distractions, seemed to have paid some dividends. He seemed in control the entire run, and appeared to have plenty in the tank for any last lap surges. And from past super league sprint finishes, he seems to have that piece of the puzzle too, so perhaps a Yee, Wilde, Blu, sprint finish??
I am not sure Luis will have that big a gap after the swim. The bigger the field the longer it takes to break up in the swim. Also, there will be a much stronger chase pack to close it down.
I would expect him to be in the mix for top 8 but it is going to be a packed final with a lot to fight for including top 3.
Unless mechanicals spoil the fun I hope it is going to be a close race down to the wire.
Luis actually could act as the perfect domestique in Abu Dhabi for Bergere (and by proxy the front group). He’s already said he’s likely there to help him win a world title, so I think they may have a little extra fire power, cus Luis could DNF or likely still finish top 20 after burning all his matches. Which is a smart af move by Luis. Help a teammate and friend win a world title less than 2 years before Paris, that would be huge 'mo for that federation and athletes (hell even showcase his “elder statesman” move of the peloton, take some pressure off himself going into Paris, etc). Even if that all fails and the groups merge, he’s shown the form to run just fine.
In regards to how it’ll all shake out. If this truly is likely going to come down to a run race, which I think we all agree it will, I just can’t see a scenario with Blu medaling, hell if he finishes top 5 I’ll be amazed/shocked. I just dont see how he’ll have the foot speed in a world title race field that will basically be an run race, even if the chase group starts 10-20s back (I dont see how the front group can manage a big gap, if a gap at all). There’s just too many good runners to account for, that for Blu to have his LC racing in his legs at this point in the year, I just can’t see it happening. I mean I get it, Blu is an easy name to call and he is the reigning champion, and everyone wants to point to him and Iden as showcasing that “specialization” is now out the window, but when all the best SC athletes meet in Abu Dhabi, I just dont see how he’s going to have the run speed to match it. And by all means, just being in the conversation is incredible enough. But if we are going to talk about sprint finishes, etc I got 5 guys before even mentioning Blu. But again the fact that he’s there in the conversation is amazing, I’ve just been on the island that the more he stays in LC prior to Paris, it’s going to hurt his chances there. I’m perfectly fine to hang on that island alone. And they’ve mentioned they won’t do LC next year, but then they’ve already mentioned they’ll probaly be there again next year. I just think it’s going to take away from medal winning ability.
Wilde adds a different dynamic to the bike whenever he races. He’s probably one of the most aggressive cyclists and can close down gaps pretty quick sometimes which makes make it more likely for the chase pack to catch any break
Luis actually could act as the perfect domestique in Abu Dhabi for Bergere //
This actually works real well into Luis’s overall game plan. Yes he could work somewhat for his teammate, but it also suits his own ambitions for the race. Drill the swim again, stretch out the field, and then work a nice smooth break on the front. No need really to blow himself up, he will be a better domestic if he stays in control, and takes it further into the race. I can see a scenario where they are running together, him setting pace, and seeing what is coming from behind. IF no one super close, keep breaking wind in the run. If there is a charge, then step it up and see if Bergere can hang, if not, then you are free to fly.
I believe this is some misunderstanding of what happened last week with some folks. I forgot your stance, but many are thinking that Yee was off. From how the race played out, I think he was fine, just was handed a race that stressed him and others out to their limits. That back group had to just annihilate the swim to just stay within 45 seconds, on the rivet the either way. Then they got on the bike and the pressure was put on immediately, and all the favorites were on the front mounting as hard a chase as they could. It worked out for the Spaniards, got to sit in and unleash some great runs, while all the guys working the front, had just so so runs for them.
I dont see 2nd and 3rd as some breakthrough, just taking advantage of the real favorites having to work super hard just to stay in the race. Yes there will be more firepower in the chase, but there should also be some more in the front break too, with the likes of Hauser and a few others. And they all know the tactic now, seen it work, and a huge incentive to just make that back group work harder. Take the top end of the run out of the runners, and a small T@ gap could prove to be very selective.
I just dont see Luis sacrificing such a big race and going all in on the bike to help a teammate though. He can help quite well to just race his race, and be insurance for France just in case Leo is off that day…