Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens

The start list was published yesterday on the IM website

2024 Athletic Brewing IRONMAN 70.3 Oceanside

Sam Long will have to race hard if he wants to win this race

Jelle Geens Belgian Olympic racer would be my number one pick,

There is actually other factors in the race, the IM series where the gap to the winner matters, and the qualification for the WC. Indeed, as Joe Skipper said, the WC winner gets 3000 points and even with a 8 minutes 20 seconds you get as much as from a win in the other 70.3 : 2500 points. Looking at last year, the top 15 in Lahti would have gotten more than those 2500 points. The only problem is you have to be in the top 3 to qualifiy which is not an easy feat for a typical IM athlete (like Skipper) and you have to be qualified before July to go to the WC

Several racers are already qualified so that may make it a bit easier
Those who are alreadly qualified who are supposed to get in the mix : Currie, Laundry, Quenet, Sharpe, Rodriguez Hernandez, Sanders, Long, Dubrick, Lopez, Trakic so even with a 10th place you may get a WC quali.

So that means that Lange, Skipper, Hanson, Lieferman may get a qualification yet not get that many points and not really figure in the race. Again, a TDF camera crew would be needed to show the races within the race but i doubt we will see it given even PTO was not able to deliver that !
On the other hand, there are more 70.3 races in the series than full so they may qualify elsewhere

Sanders has not really made it very clear that he will be part of the IM Series as he has only talked about Kona. Maybe he is waiting for his performance in Texas. His ability to perform on the 70.3 distance would be his strength and Sam Long (a slower swimmer than he is !) performance in Miami proved wrong those who thought/said that weaker swimmers could not be relevant any more.

Actually, the level in the IM Series may go down as two contenders Chevrot and Horseau are out of the Texas race. Horseau is racing South Africa which amazed me as he raced 4 times last year with wins in Lanza and Embrun and a 6th in Nice. Chevrot has stated a couple day ago on his IG that due to his infant daughter bringing back viruses/illnesses from daycare his training has not gone to plan and he will not race Texas.
For Europeans the fact that Cairns is the other earliear race make it more difficult and a financial bet as otherwise they have to race mid July (Vitoria), mid August (Frankfurt) and mid October (Kona)

Geens, Lange, Sperl (DEU) 14th in Lathi or Angert if he is able to get back to his 22 are my picks for the qualification. It is harder to pick for those early seasons races.

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him :wink:

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him :wink:

agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that’s a pacechain that’s literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don’t see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

81 dudes. There’s going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women’s race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

81 dudes. There’s going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women’s race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

yeah, this was the case last year, wasn’t it? some back-of-the-pack men’s racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.

81 dudes. There’s going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women’s race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

yeah, this was the case last year, wasn’t it? some back-of-the-pack men’s racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.

Yeah it was similar last year. Though I think there were 70ish men??

It really messes up the dynamics with the womens race. The women at the front could really get a benefit by riding with a group of men. The women behind are then chasing a pack that they will struggle to catch. A man could cause one of the women to inadvertently get a penalty… etc, etc.

I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him :wink:

agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that’s a pacechain that’s literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don’t see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

The issues compound. Even just 50 riders at 20m is 1km long, actually more because 20m is the limit, so they’ll likely be 21-25m back. Let’s call it 1.1km. At 45kph that line is 1.5minutes long. That’s not nothing to start the run even just 1 min back based on position. Let’s also consider that with 35 seconds to pass (realistically 30 to not be so close to the limit) a weak swimmer biking onto the back of the field is looking at >25 minutes of passing to get to the front. In order to close 20m in 35s you need a 2kph speed differential. In order to close it safely (22m in 30sec) you need more that 2.5kph. That’s around a 40w increase to just barely make it (45kph to 47kph). It’s just not gonna happen beyond passing a few riders. Coming up on a group >10 is effectively going to be a wall. Unless I can get to the front and drop the group there’s no way that passing 10 riders to gain ~30 seconds is worth 5 minutes at +40w.

That’s to say nothing of the hugely increased risk of failing to complete a pass and getting a penalty.

Tangent - I think we’re going to see bottles and hydration systems mounted so high up that they’re effectively jersey bottles. all it a ‘chest rest’

That’s a gigantic men’s field. WOW!!!

Jelle Geens sticks out, and although I think he is going to do great in the swim and run, not sure how good he will be on the bike; Oceanside is not an “easy” bike, and I don’t see Geens as an uber biker.

I’m having a hard time picking a winner.

This race is going to be an absolute mess. Skipper is going to go off on his pod after he gets fucked on the bike as mathematics explained above.

Lange, Geens, Sanders
Knibb, Findlay, Pallant-Browne

Isn’t the draft distance at Ironman branded events still 12m?

It still will be undoubtedly a long line. But it does change the math a bit.

IM uses Race Ranger for the IM Series races
.

Race Ranger can be set to any distance.

In fact, to think that at least three people assumed that 20 meters were somehow hard-coded into Race Ranger is nothing short of amazing.

This race is going to be an absolute mess. Skipper is going to go off on his pod after he gets fucked on the bike as mathematics explained above.

Lange, Geens, Sanders
Knibb, Findlay, Pallant-Browne

It was a huge men’s pro field last year, but Sam Long came into T2 with the lead group so it’s definitely not impossible to come from behind. I think the hills break groups up and stop it just being a procession.

wait you assumed that we (if i’m one of the 3) assumed. I only said that IM uses RR, and did think that the ‘range’ could be adjusted !
no big deal anyway !

Well since there will be about 6 to 7 minutes from first male pro to last out of water, that gives about 3 miles of bike road for everyone to get sorted out. And with 12m instead of 20m, there should be plenty of room for everyone. Some long lines of riders, for sure. But so what, it is a race and they are racing, some will blow up from holding that line, others will conserve at that pace and crush the run.

I just find it amazing that so many pros will race for so little money. Perhaps it is everyone’s dream of the series bonus pool. After all it is not your place that matters, but your time from leader. So a guy getting 50th place could still get good points if the field is bunched up, even though he was no where near the daily prizes. Also early season and folks are chomping at the bit to just race…

With a 12m draft zone and traveling 27 mph, riders are spaced ~1 sec apart (.99 seconds).

I’m actually excited by 80 men/40 women racing in the pro field. We can do races with thousands of amateurs. We can do races with 100+ pros. Put more time in between the men’s & women’s start. Enforce a lap out rule where if you’re caught by a woman you have to drop back/can’t repass. There’s a lot of good athletes in each field past the top-20 & they deserve a shot to race top level competition. Oceanside is the unofficial kickoff of IM racing in North America. It’s exciting that there’s this much interest in the professional race.

womens: Knibb, Pallant-Browne, Brandon

mens: Currie, Lange, Laundry
.

As a new pro, I’ll chime in… there are less opportunities to race as a pro than what I’ve seen in the past. The depth of this field is a combination of easing standards to qualify to race professionally, the lack of early season races, and the lack of overall domestic 70.3 pro races this year. There are 8 70.3s in the US this year with a pro field available - so naturally, less races to choose from means that more people will head to one race.

The depth at the top of this field will be awesome to witness. There are ~25 guys that could theoretically have a shot at the podium, or at least a top 5… which will probably cause some big risks being taken at the front and some big blow ups as a result.

Yes, they use race ranger, but they haven’t changed the distance. Race Ranger I’m assuming is just set to flash at 12m.

Regarding Sam’s chances in Oceanside, if he stands a chance he’ll have to smash the bike and still have legs to put down an epic run since it’s almost certain to be 12m, not 20m draft limit. Remember, IM released a recent rules update for 2024 and they said nothing about the draft zone going to 20m. I can’t believe they’d just have some races be 20 and some be 12. Seems to haphazard for a professional slower moving organization like Ironman.

Sanders I wouldn’t be surprised to seem him come on strong in Oceanside and St George and look to do well in Taupo too. Neither of those have any interference with Kona. Sadly, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him race totally flat and have some expected list of reasons. I hope he crushes it.