I agree with the others who are suggesting your estimates for expended energy on exercise seem way to high.
Regardless, while I typically enjoy analysing the numbers on most topics, I think it can be a mistake for a lot of people, including myself, to approach eating in this way.
On one hand it’s difficult to manage accurately. It’s also difficult to be sure you’re applying the correct numbers to start with. And also I find it’s just a miserable way to live.
Based on your experience, you already know that the numbers, as you’re using them, are not doing the trick.
I’d firstly suggest that you forget the idea that you’ll lose weight by training. It should help, but it’s not the main factor and thinking that it is will psychologically have you thinking you need more food because you’re exercising. For modest amounts of exercise that’s not necessarily true. I’m doing a fairly modest amount of training at the moment, only a few hours a week. A couple of weekday evenings I do 60-80mins mostly at pretty high intensity on the trainer. That typically equates to 800-1000kcals. My FTP is somewhere in the vicinity of 270W at the moment. I don’t need any extra food after this, just my normal dinner. It doesn’t sound like you’re doing any more than that, but you’re having 2 breakfasts and a highly calorific shake by the sounds of things. I’d suggest you dump the numbers for now, they’re not working for you, possibly because they’re not correct and may just be propping up bad habits. But regardless, they’re unnecessary.
It’s fairly common from what I’ve seen for people to start training more, but also eat more, and end up getting heavier instead of lighter. Eat a bit less and see if the weight starts to drop. If it does, just stick with it, if not reduce intake a bit more and repeat until you see progress. Don’t worry about fuelling your training. Yeah, it might be beneficial in some ways, but that mindset will almost certainly be your downfall if you’re struggling to lose weight.
I’ve never found it hard to know how to lose weight. In my case, I just eat less than normal. I don’t worry too much about what I eat, though it is easier to eat less if your food is not cheesecake, ice cream or chocolate based. The tricky bit is getting used to a slight sense of hunger (slight!). I find this easy once it becomes habit and can keep it up very long term. But establishing the habit can be very difficult. No matter what anyone might tell you around here, it’s NOT sustainable to do anything difficult by “will power” alone. That’s why typical “diets” virtually NEVER work. You have to make things like this into a habit. Make it normal so that you’re not depending on yourself to not slip up… The tricky bit is establishing the habit. But eating less is not a technical challenge, it’s just something ,most of us find hard to do at first. Focusing on the numbers obscures that, and focusing on the numbers might be a good short term motivator (it works great for me doing bike intervals) but it’s not a good long term motivator. In fact I think it’s almost useless.