The guy won the fucking Nobel Prize
Well I guess you’ll take note of this gem from the article then:
“An informationally efficient market is not supposed to be clairvoyant.”
Your claim is that it was. Still think the article helps you?
Remember what I said earlier about saying fewer stupid things?
There you go again, farting out your brain onto the screen more drivel and nonsense. Just to set the record straight, 3000 Americans were not killed on 9/11. There were 102 different countries citizens who died that day, as well as about 67 undocumented workers. Not that I ever made that point in the first place, but to take some of the spin out of your hamster wheel…
The efficient market theory is a cornerstone of modern capital markets.
It may not be clairvoyant but it has all available information in it.
The fact there wasn’t even much of a blip once the markets opened should tell you everything you need to know.
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And the markets reacted how?
3000 fucking people died and you equated that to pissing around with taxes on imports. How many Canadians died due to tariffs?
Your bolded quotation is missing a word. If you meant “no market believed” — that might be right. If you meant “no one believed” — you can’t get there even under the most extreme efficient markets theories. A market may contain players with widely divergent views.
This might be a good time to take a deep breath. I think that you are the only one who believes that he was equating 3000 deaths to a trade war. I took it as him saying that this attack on Canada (and that is what it was) could unite Canadians just like an attack on our country (9/11) did. He wasn’t comparing damage but comparing responses.
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I guess that’s why every Canadian premier is looking at alternative markets for their goods, why tons of people on the US side were working frantically to find out the implications and exclusions if there were to be any, why nearly all my vendors were emailing about upcoming price fluctuations due to the tariffs etc. It was all for show, according to you, nobody believed anything would really happen.
C’mon man. Do better. Just a bit. You keep trying to make this out like it was a big nothing burger because nothing ultimately happened but significant threats were made. If someone, heaven forbid, made serious threats against you, or your family, that didn’t materialize at the last second, would you just brush off the incident because at the end of the day, nothing happened?
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We’ve damaged the relationship with our closest ally and largest trading partner. It seems pretty short sighted to dismiss it solely based on one day’s market fluctuation. There are Canadians on this forum that are already looking for alternatives to American products.
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Many of our premiers have said it’s time to look at other markets as it’s no longer sensible to rely on the US. Our likely next PM is using this as an election issue (we have a federal election this year). He is campaigning on opening up our energy to world markets and not selling nearly all of it to USA at a discount anymore.
It’s not just a few angry Canadians abstaining from buying bourbon, or opting for French’s ketchup instead of Heinz. There is a lot at stake here.
That’s how I interpreted it.
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Perhaps but if the consensus was it amounted to anything then markets would have been hit hard. They weren’t. I walked in Monday morning (after looking at futures trading Sunday night) confident the “trade war” was BS.
Unless they were analogous why would they both unite in the same way?
I’ve been staring at market screens since I was 18 and watching markets since fifth grade or so.
First and foremost the tariffs didn’t make sense and Trump brags about the stock market during his first term, he wasn’t going to implode it.
Sunday night I saw futures open up down about 1.50%…Sunday night is thin liquidity, program trades, and Asian hedging aka that’s not alarming. Next morning we were down less than a percent.
Just because a bunch of suppliers sent out panicked emails doesn’t mean anything, they were freaking out over something that was a bunch of blustery bullshit and if they knew where to look it would have been obvious.
This is made up.
SP 500 was down about 1.5% until Trump folded like a cheap tent to Mexico
The Dow was down about 1.3%
The TSX was down about 1.5%
If you are going to make shit up try to make up shit that isn’t so easily verifiable. .
They don’t have to be analogous. Monty was referring to the last time the US truly rallied behind government leadership. His hope was that Canada could overcome their political differences and petty squabbles.
I suspect you are confusing statements in this thread with the other thread on if we will survive a Trump presidency. That thread had an argument about if Trump is a greater existential threat to the US than Bin Ladin.
Have we really damaged it though? Nothing has effectively changed since last week.
The Canadians on the forum are virtue signaling ninnies. Once they get start comparison shopping they’ll be back to buying what they bought before and if they don’t means cheaper prices here.
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But for the responses to be analogous the root causes need to be analogous