Anyone signed up for the ballot? I am entering for the first time, keeping my fingers crossed
I’ve signed up as usual. Tried every year since I did it in 2017 so have a few extra chances built up by now.
I threw my name in the lottery, f-it.
Is it a random draw, or do they review your previous races, etc? I only put my two most recent Full IM’s, California and Alaska
It’s a random draw with a few special conditions. Every year you enter the draw you get an extra chance the following year, as long as you keep entering. You could also earn some extra chances if you entered some virtual racing during covid. I know some people with over 10 entries.
The other thing is the draw breakdown; there is a minimum of 20% women if I remember rightly, and then it is limited to no more than 10% from any one country, except Norway, which is 30%.
So yes, it’s a random draw but you only have a chance for circa 80% of the 200 or so slots available, and even then you are competing against thousands of others, some with extra slots. I think the last time they had a proper draw for the 2020 edition there were over 6000 people trying.
Wow, surprised there’s that many people who sign up for the lottery! So it’s an essentially a 5% acceptance rate (aside from the various groups that get a little extra per what you mentioned above)?
Not holding my breathe, but figured it was a worth a shot. That and might as well keep on trying in future years to get a slightly improved chance.
Wouldn’t surprise me if there was 8000 trying the lottery this year. So for men, I think are usually 90% of applicants. So you’re looking at a 2% chance maximum I’d say.
Norseman is comparable to Kona in terms of getting a place. If you are an elite they hold the xtri world champs so you can quali for that either by getting too 2 at another xtri world tour race or you can apply if you’re sub 8:45 I think it is.
Far from 8:45 IM finisher. Oh well, maybe one day I’ll get a spot. Good luck to you guys too, post back here if you get in.
Signed up as I do every year, let’s see who gets lucky tomorrow. This year I supported a good friend of mine to a black t-shirt which was awesome.
I supported my friend (and coach) to black too. Had always wanted to support so it was a great day out.
What approx fast ironmancourse final time would be needed to be able to get the black finisher time you reckon?
What approx fast ironmancourse final time would be needed to be able to get the black finisher time you reckon?
Here’s a little reference point, take it for what it’s worth:
I got a black shirt in 2014. The two IMs I did before (both Wisconsin) were 10:19 and 10:31. Was 4:3X HIM. I was in around 60-70th place for most of day… after making it to start Zombie Hill with a lot of buffer - no way could that many people catch up to me to send me down the white shirt route - took it nice and easy up to the top of the mountain. Don’t remember what place I came in… maybe 100th or so.
Glad I got a spot when only a couple thousand people entered the lottery back then!
What approx fast ironmancourse final time would be needed to be able to get the black finisher time you reckon?
My friend is not the fastest athlete out there but he did everything he could to be ready for this race. In worse shape he finished two full distance triathlons before so that doesn’t give an indication. My guestimate is he would be between 11h-11h30m in the best shape of his life. What made the difference was the reckon we did a couple of weeks before the race. There was no room for errors so we had to make sure they didn’t occur. One thing for instance is the final support spot just before the very long descent. As a support crew you will not make T2 in time if you wait for your athlete there. The race was basically until the start of Zombie Hill at km 25. It’s nearly impossible to run up Zombie Hill so as long as you can walk up to the 32.5km point you’re good. In 2023 the cut-off is at km 35 so the dynamics will change, you can run after roughly km 30.
In general however I think that a 10h30m time on a fast IM course will suffice, given that you do the hard work and come prepared.
The video will be up at 6 pm CET. 4650 People entered the ballot and a total of 8860 tickets are in the draw for 215 slots. I have 5 tickets which means I have a 6.4% chance of getting a slot. Good luck everyone!
2022 was different to other years, even with the normal cutoff on Zombie Hill. A usual “safe” time to make the black is reach the cut-off in around 12-12.5hrs, it’s normally all on the bike. This year there were a lot of fast runners in the 100-180 range and they made a lot of time up in the first part of the run, to where Zombie hill begins.
If you can swim and have transition under 1hr 30m, Bike under 7hr 30m and then run to the cutoff in 3hr - 3.5hrs (32.5km) then you should be more or less safe for the black.
Sounds easy but the bike has 3000m climbing and at that point of the run I think you’ve done about 1000m at that point, maybe a bit less.
This year with the cut-off moving to 35km will probably mean you need to be there in 12.5-13hrs. The extra 2.5km is more or less all uphill too.
You can make up a lot of places on Zombie Hill if you can run walk, or even power walk at that point.
I would guess that the cut off black t-shirt corresponds to 11.00-11.15 at a fast course.
Plus, you need to be able to deal with the weather.
The draw premiere in 2 hours at https://youtu.be/x6kvJDaov_8
It is even some nice little technology involved in the draw, very visible in the video.
We like to test new ways to do things. Sometimes successful.
Hi Harek, hope you are well!
Can’t wait for the video, but petrified of watching 
The video will be up at 6 pm CET. 4650 People entered the ballot and a total of 8860 tickets are in the draw for 215 slots. I have 5 tickets which means I have a 6.4% chance of getting a slot. Good luck everyone!
Not to get your hopes up, but would it not be about 10.4 % (5*184/8827)?
I’m crossing my fingers, only a 2 % here…
The video will be up at 6 pm CET. 4650 People entered the ballot and a total of 8860 tickets are in the draw for 215 slots. I have 5 tickets which means I have a 6.4% chance of getting a slot. Good luck everyone!
Not to get your hopes up, but would it not be about 10.4 % (5*184/8827)?
I’m crossing my fingers, only a 2 % here…
That was my first thought as well. However, 4650 people have 8860 tickets, so the average person has 1.9 tickets. Since I have 5 tickets I divide 5 by 1.9 and multiply that by the 2.4% chance of a ticket winning an entry. Not 100% sure I’m doing it correctly though. In the end it’s simple, I either get in or I don’t.
Guess 2024 will hopefully be my year😊
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Anyone here get in?
Guy I used to train with here in L.A. got it. Saw his name on the YouTube video, texted him, he had no idea. Pretty funny.