Any idea what Mirinda rode in terms of power, IF, etc?
She must have had a pretty low IF to still have legs like that at KONA.
I suspect she has excellent sense of pacing on the bike that shows on the run. I suspect it’s 1.01-1.02 due to the hills and wind that require some variation in power. Jackmott might make a better guess than me on her wattage, but she’s small, good overall position and equipment. I’d guess 190W NP? At 40lbs heavier and 9" taller, I’d need probably 230W NP I’d estimate, to ride that same split. But maybe I’m a little low on her number.
No way to guess are her IF.
Her FTP could be 400 for all I know.
Probably not quite 400 =)
I suspect she has excellent sense of pacing on the bike that shows on the run. I suspect it’s 1.01-1.02 due to the hills and wind that require some variation in power. Jackmott might make a better guess than me on her wattage, but she’s small, good overall position and equipment. I’d guess 190W NP? At 40lbs heavier and 9" taller, I’d need probably 230W NP I’d estimate, to ride that same split. But maybe I’m a little low on her number.
Rider inputs in course model:
52kg
CdA 0.25
FTP 230
IF 0.75
VI 1.02
GPTT tyres (latex tubes assumed)
Yields AP/NP of 169/172.5
Time of 5.04.45
Average Yaw 8.2
TSS 285
Time difference between 2013 and 2014 thanks to weather 2.20 (slower in 2014)
My guess is that she aims for a much lower TSS than the other girls to enable the killer run - that is why she sets times among the best guys (who have much lower TSS than the women).
You think her CdA is that bad?
Man, if only that could be improved she could have much less stressful kona wins!
Rider inputs in course model:
52kg
CdA 0.25
FTP 230
IF 0.75
VI 1.02
GPTT tyres (latex tubes assumed)
Yields AP/NP of 169/172.5
Time of 5.04.45
Average Yaw 8.2
TSS 285
Time difference between 2013 and 2014 thanks to weather 2.20 (slower in 2014)
My guess is that she aims for a much lower TSS than the other girls to enable the killer run - that is why she sets times among the best guys (who have much lower TSS than the women).
You think her CdA is that bad?
Man, if only that could be improved she could have much less stressful kona wins!
CdA and power assumptions have to be considered together. 0.25 is what worked with a realistic power. Could easily be lower power and lower CdA but the running strength suggests a pretty good engine and the way her back bends is not all that positive for aero.
The other girls have a shorter ride and are probably riding only slightly harder, though with more VI. But I bet their TSS is the same or lower.
You should have a look at Steffens disaster of a power file
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/public/workout/NQXKV5HU4P6DSSIFTUE376B7NM
Riding the first half of an IM like it’s an Olympic distance is not the recipe for success
Rinny would be silly to work on her swim and risk getting caught in the madness
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There is a case where using a power meter to give you a wattage ceiling would have been useful
You should have a look at Steffens disaster of a power file
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/public/workout/NQXKV5HU4P6DSSIFTUE376B7NM
Riding the first half of an IM likes it’s an Olympic distance is not the recipe for success
Rinny would be silly to work on her swim and risk getting caught in the madness
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You should have a look at Steffens disaster of a power file
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/public/workout/NQXKV5HU4P6DSSIFTUE376B7NM
Riding the first half of an IM like it’s an Olympic distance is not the recipe for success
Rinny would be silly to work on her swim and risk getting caught in the madness
All that cooling from her vented helmet must have tricked her into going too hard :-/
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All that cooling from her vented helmet must have tricked her into going too hard :-/
Or could helmet and pacing be indicative of not using available information to make the best decisions for overall performance… hmmm
Any pro that doesn’t like aero helmets needs to ditch the sponsor if they’re not giro/LG/Evil Empire so they can get a fast road helmet.
I gotta ask…
With the change to the men’s AG start, was Rinny caught up in the AG race on the bike at all?
With a slightly slower swim and bike, I think she must have been caught by at least a few of the AG men?
Did she legally draft with them?
I don’t care if she did, as that’s how the race was designed, but I’m just wondering if the change to the AG start actually interfered with the women’s race as predicted.
You should have a look at Steffens disaster of a power file
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/public/workout/NQXKV5HU4P6DSSIFTUE376B7NM
Riding the first half of an IM like it’s an Olympic distance is not the recipe for success
Rinny would be silly to work on her swim and risk getting caught in the madness
All that cooling from her vented helmet must have tricked her into going too hard :-/
In fairness to Caroline and the strong women bikers we have to think out race tactics. I agree that they want to ride even power and low variability. If they were all racing each other MINUS Mirinda, the game changes. With Mirinda in the field, they all pretty well know that they need a 15 min buffer into T2 IF Mirinda is to run her “normal run”. Keep in mind in 2012, Mirinda did not run her normal run.
Having said that Mirinda is the new version of Mark Allen 2 decades later. She’s in the head of all her competition. Mark would just do his thing, and like 1995, when he came in 13 minutes down on Hellriegel, everyone knew that if Mark had to, he can pull out a 2:42. If you were going to run 2:55, you needed to have 13-15 minutes on Mark to be safe. If Mark entered T2 10 minutes down, basically he could jog the marathon and win the race.
It seems that athletes like Steffen, need to show Mirinda that they have a massive lead by Hawi, either through spotters or the gap at Hawi, so that Mirinda takes the bait and over bikes, or ignores her nutrition like she did in 2012. If Mirinda just even paces the bike, and comes in 10 minutes down it is game over. At 15 minutes she’s still in the podium hunt.
Now, I don’t know if Caroline needs to ride like in an Olympic tri and do the entire race with a 1.07 VI, but she does need Mirinda to get baited into over biking “a bit”. At least with the hope that Mirinda runs 3:01. Then the game is on for all the other girls. If Caroline can overbike a bit and get in the draft of the third pack men like Ivan Rana, then suddenly the game can change big time. At Melbourne 2012, Caroline basically got up to the 2nd Men’s pack, rode a 4:36 and came into T2 with something like a half hour lead on Rinny. Macca is a pretty smart guy, and I am almost guessing that they looked at how this strategy worked in Melbourne and how they could apply it in Kona to create more distance. It might explain some of the Olympic tri style biking early in the day. Keep in mind that Caroline also ran a 1:17 half marathon in a 70.3 last month. The more I think of it, Macca probably told her to over bike, get with some men and then cruise in with them to a massive lead while refueling and throttling down the second half. It would not be that indifferent from how Macca won in 2010.
I don’t know which men Caroline would have in her sights though. With a 56 min swim, she would need to ride with the likes of Christian Brader, Michael Weiss and Matt Russel who swam a touch over an hour. Maybe that’s what she was doing…taking a flyer with these guys, but perhaps that was way too much and cooked her bike and run. Maybe that works on the flats in Melbourne, but with the hills and wind of Hawaii, she’s riding with guys riding at 4W per kilo while she may only have 3+W per kilo to give at IM pace. Just the early hills in town and climbing Palani to get out of town would overcook things. Does anyone know if she was in their vicinity? If should could stay with these types of athletes, she would have had a nice legal draft once up on the QueenK and we’d be saying how brilliant the strategy is to take advantage of the race format.
All of this is Wed morning QBing…all fun though.
Dev
All of this is Wed morning QBing…all fun though.
Dev
Hey, Dev … it’s Thursday, buddy!
All of this is Wed morning QBing…all fun though.
Dev
Hey, Dev … it’s Thursday, buddy!
LOL…It is Canadian Wednesday…Monday was our Thanksgiving so only the 3rd day back at work!
Well then get off Slowtwitch and do some work!!!
LOL…I work on parts of Europe, North America and Asia time zone every day so I take time off during every one of these time zone every day too. Sometimes I’ll be surfing ST on Asia time zone at 1 am North America time and then Europe customers start bugging me. Need to take time out of the grind whenever possible 
Time for a run now. It is around 5:20 pm in Europe and everyone there is leaving work and the San Jose guys are just pulling in!
When I saw her fit on her Felt the first thing I thought was that she could make aero gains with additional saddle to pad drop. I’m guessing her bars are as low as they’ll go on that rig though. Pic: http://bit.ly/1wcANmq
I gotta ask…
With the change to the men’s AG start, was Rinny caught up in the AG race on the bike at all?
With a slightly slower swim and bike, I think she must have been caught by at least a few of the AG men?
Did she legally draft with them?
I don’t care if she did, as that’s how the race was designed, but I’m just wondering if the change to the AG start actually interfered with the women’s race as predicted.
I think 5 or 6 in the final miles would have caught her. But only 1 of those guys ran sub 3 hours… and even he wasn’t going ot be keeping pace in those opening miles. I think she opened up at a 6:15 pace if I remember.
Some of the pro women have pretty high cda from the wind tunnel data I have seen (Only n=3 observations for the kona field .24-.26)
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