With the addition of Michigan, I believe there are now 8 states where tips can’t be credited against the minimum wage. As noted above, California is one. We may be able to look to those states to see if tipping culture is significantly different than in those that allow a credit to give some idea as to whether customers will now respond differently in Michigan.
Since the credit is being phased out in Michigan over a four year period, I suspect people will not suddenly change their behavior.
Let’s assume a $12 per hour minimum wage. Say the state allows a 50% tip credit, so the employee is paid by the restaurant $6 per hour, provided the employee makes at least $6 per hour in tips.
Let’s also assume the server is responsible for four tables, each service is for 1 hour, the cost of each bill is $100, and the average tip is $15. (And let’s ignore tip sharing or splitting.)
If a tip credit is allowed, the server will make in that one hour $51 ($45 in tips + $6 in hourly wages.) The variable cost to the restaurant for that server’s labor is $6 (plus payroll taxes, but those payroll taxes also should based on the tipped portion too). That labor cost is split among 4 tables, so each table pays $1.50 of that employee’s labor (or $16.50 total).
With out the tip credit, the employee’s houry wage and the employer’s variable labor cost is now $12 per hour. Suppose the employer passes 100% of the increased cost to the customer, each table’s portion of the employee’s hourly is now $3, and the total tab less tip for each table is $101.50.
Is the customer who is now paying $1.50 more less tips now going to reduce the amount of the tip so that the server still makes $51 per hour. Instead of a $15 tip, it’s a $13 tip? In that case, the customer’s total would actually be $.50 less than before. Or is the customer going to just continue to pay 15% of the total tab?
I know I’ve ignored sales tax, on the bill but not on tips, which will increase the restaurant’s cost a bit more as well as the tab. I also get that if you change the numbers, the tables per serve, length of a stay, amount of the tip, and total bill, the outcome changes.
I know I’m overthinking this, but I suspect you are too.