Help an old lady out - what time do I need at Maryland to KO for Kona getting the last spot (will never will my AG)
Have a play with this from @Gilliga
Since you don’t share how senior and wise you are, I merely observe from those data that a W45-49 needed to finish in 10:37 (for a KQ in 2026) in a race where the top 5 overall finished between 9:02-9:09 (v swift scan). You can look to see what Maryland is typically (average) won in. A maths (opposed to engineer) ‘nerd’ if enthused, will give a far better answer.
My stab seems to line up with @Tribike53 rough times (for a race where the M30-34 won in 9:00.
Thank you and sorry for the most important part I am F55-59, debating on singing up to try for a slot. I did Kona in 2023 in 13:09, think I have a shot with a flat course?
There is no definitive answer to this. If you share your target time, and your age then we can convert the target time to virtual time. Then you have to hit that time and go to the performance pool rolldown and hope that enough people decline or you are in the outright slot winner list, but that entirely depends on who shows up and how fast they go or not.
What changed since last week if you are NOT leading your age group at a race, then you can’t jog it in if you have a podium position secured in your age group. You need to keep going at your max sustainable pace for your best possible age graded time.
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I have zero idea, madam, but, rule of thumb, 11:30 (from the table above) (for a course won in 9:00). I prefer to think of the average of the first 5 (which last year at Maryland was within a minute of 9:00).
The scenic (or not) nature of the course should not matter as it’s the same for every athlete, However from the ‘main’ thread, some have suggested that an easier parcours favours some classes more than others.
For sure an easier course that is less hot will help older athletes more. They get the full Kona heat and humidity derating factor, to an easier course where it does not apply as much. The slower you are, the less cooling effect you get from airflow over your body by moving at 4 or 5 min per km (faster athletes) versus 6-10min per km (slower athletes). As long as the air temp is 35C or below, motion creates cooling and slower athletes have less airflow related cooling. So on a cooler day, the slower athletes have less melting down.
This site has 2024 Maryland race results loaded against the new kona standard using 55 slots (which maryland has this year). Based on that only your AG winner had a slot. The last person out of performance pool at adjusted time of 9:32 since the AG winner was 8:3x.
So, if I have this right, if the OP raced round in 11:30 (per my post above) with a coefficient of 0.7778 (for F55-59) that converts to an Perfomance Pool adjusted time of 8:57. Have I got that right?
I note (in the Metrica.fit and loading IM Maryland) that in F50-54 Suzanne Hurst notionally qualified with an actual time of 11:37 (converts to 9:27).
Notionally, last year an F55-59 going 12:10 would’ve gained a KQ (their converted time would = 9:31).
A working assumption of the metrica.fit illustration is that all AG winners take their slots, which statistically they won’t.
With five from F50-54 and only one from F55-59, this demonstrates the strength of this new protocol: qualification (unless you win AG) depends on age-related relative speed not so much who turns up in your class.