didn’t Kyle glass already say, that the 20 best athletes are not racing …
Maybe the second time you misheard the PTN pod? Listing athletes who chose not race Marbella would be off topic (Marbella Favorites) and furthermore would pander to the ‘fail to make the liners’ to the detriment of those who will step up to the plate.
Per the latest PTN, Laura Phillip is not racing, neither is Lionel Sanders, Sam Laidlow or Jonas Schomburg. No Van Riel either. Sam Long wrote recently that he is likely not doing Marbella and will probably do Arizona.
My picks right now:
- Kristian Blummenfelt
- Rico Bogen
- Jelle Geens
Women:
- Kat Matthews
- Paula Findlay
- LCB / Knibb (if they decide to race)
If Taylor and Lucy can make it back with decent form, I expect one heck of a battle royal to ensue. The wetsuit swim will keep Kat closer out of the water while the inclines could advantage Taylor a bit. Both Lucy and Taylor would be hunting for a degree of redemption while Kat has got to have her eye on that top podium position. The race certainly has the potential to be similarly exciting as this year’s Kona.
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The thing is we won’t know whether this is the case, and nor will Matthews/Findlay/Loevseth, until the second turn around on the run (10km - the jiggering around the harbour and the breakwater). Charles-Barclay has not run at a decent pace further than 22km since her 2:49 (for 41km after a nice easy 170km bike) in Nice 16 months ago. If they start will either be conservative? Can they afford to be?
For every athlete who makes it that far, definitely a “It’s not all over till it’s over!” run.
Learmonth has been able to stay with Knibb (Vancouver) on the bike so will she be able to up that long climb? She’s pulled out some (to me) amazing 18km runs, for her. Both GTB and Findlay rode really well in Frejus (a lot less climb though - long climb was circa 350m in 12km).
Do people really think that if Taylor shows up in Marbella she’s a threat to win? I feel like a Top 10 would be a good performance for her after what she did to het body in Kona.
I don’t expect either Taylor or Lucy to show up unless they have completed some workouts that give them confidence they’re going to be competitive on the day.
YA if either of them start, then you can bet they think they can win, or at the very least podium. At the very least one or the other will lead the race deep into it, just how they both roll. Expect Taylor to swim with Lucy this time, hopefully I can get to that prediction once again.. (-;
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Tbf your Kona adamancy was stark. But wetsuits for sure which between Charles-Barclay and Knibb/GTB will merely mean Knibb leads earlier on the climb. For the wider race dynamic, we might expect the gap to the bike-runners to be less in T1.
Insight into Knibb (to inform whether she might race):
Sea temperature in Marbella today is 20°C. Based on our historical data over a period of ten years, the warmest water on this day near Marbella was recorded in 2016 and was 20.2°C, and the coldest was recorded in 2012 at 17.8°C. Sea water temperature in Marbella is expected to drop to 18.2°C in the next 10 days.
Geens just released this on his YT channel:
Seems like he is in great shape heading into this race and definitely a serious contender.
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It will be fascinating to see both Taylor and Lucy in the same position again where they risk racing each other other into a hole, where someone else can run through and pick up the pieces.
If both start, chance of LCB sticking with Knibb after being caught on the climb to Ojen is zero (or blow up). Learmonth in the swim FP mix: can she climb? I can’t see anyone else in that FP, maybe Arnold?
Sanchez and Perterer both DNS:
Sanchez with a stress fracture (hence her DNF in Kona - run too painful). Real pity and in particular she was the only Spaniard on either start list.
Perterer has a back up 70.3 for the IM Pro Series so doesn’t need Marbella: she is locked in for #3 in the Series and $85k. I note she remains on the T100 Dubai start list, as a wildcard. hopefully she will be recovered from her sickness. Perhaps she can come down to Marbella to pick up her cheque!
I note Findlay is on the T100 Dubai start list as are a few others who will race in Spain on a hard 70.3 the week before; GTB for example (who is also on the Phuket start list ffs).
@Mike_J has made picks, I think.
It seems like half the start list is bailing on the race especially on the men’s side. The depth of the field drops off pretty quickly outside the top 3-5 on the women’s side, and probably 5-8 on the men’s side. That’s the trouble with having this race so late and very close to Kona- having it back in it’s traditional slot in Nice next year will be much, much better to attracting a better field to actually start.
Think that’s a bit harsh. Of those qualified to race, from the top 10, at the moment really only Philipp has DNSd. Of course we still don’t know if others will DNS in the next couple of days.
Here’s ‘my’ 8, as opposed to your 3-5: Knibb, LCB, Matthews, Findlay, Loevseth, GTB, Learmonth, Neubert: let’s not ignore the athletes coming from SC who are proven over 70.3/T100.
Well Paula hasn’t been running since Augusta 70.3 so that ain’t great.
Yeah but none of them are very likely to win, and a podium is probably the best case scenario. GTB in particular hasn’t shown anything to be a contender this year. And that’s assuming LCB and Knibb start, which even if they both do it’s highly likely they won’t be at their best (going to be hard to do much training and much intensity after Kona).
The men’s side you can get more surprises like we’ve had in 2023, but also the hilly course makes it a lot harder. You can’t have a swim/runner sit in and get a free ride then run 1:10 to a podium like in Taupo or Lahti. The favorite for the podium can’t extend much deeper than 6-8 there though: the Norwegian hype train, Jelle, Rico… then maybe a couple wildcards like Sam Dickinson or Jamie Riddle, or a good day Magnus or Hogenhaug if they can ride well.
I see thst Sam Long is out..Expected addition to the family messing with rhe schedule.
But IM Arizona OK then? Surely he is far better at 70.3 and needs to step up to the plate and race the big boys and enjoy a sea swim. He deliberately raced Frejus a fortnight before Nice in order to miss T100s Spain, Wollongong and Dubai, so he could race Marbella.
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Dude spends too much time with Lionel and the madness is contagious.
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He is obviously hoping to be around for the birth, not on the other side of world. Good on him.
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