The real contender can be Hayden Wilde. Im curious why does he miss it ….
He didn’t qualify.
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Yeah I believe he was targeting a 70.3 earlier in the year but his accident messed up that plan.
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As said: “Looking at athletes who might still be deemed SC I see GTB, Lena Meißner and Tanja Neubert starting”
Neubert qualified seconds behind GTB in Bahrain 10 months ago in her first draft-illegal race (those two and Pohle swam and rode round ‘together’). Certainly worth a ‘dark horse’ badge but.
GTB has finished #12 in London, 15 minutes down on LCB, and #9 in an emasculated Frejus.
So I suggest assessing Neubert as “doing great” (tick in WTCS with Weihai podium and #10 overall) is as yet MD unproven (being kind). Is climbing her strength? All to play for, and she will be in that front swim pack (LCB, Knibb,GTB, Learmonth, any others?) Zero experience of Race Ranger.
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I mean these results aren’t exactly reflective of her performance. London she was on the side of the road dealing with her rear wheel for a long time and also had GI issues on the run.
Frejus she charged to the front of the race on the run before GI issues again ruined her race (I think she suffers from IBS?).
I don’t think she’ll be a heavy favourite for the race, but if she can manage her GI issues during the race she could top 5.
I’m more interested to see if Knibb or LCB even start the race. Thinking of Laidlow last year and how Kona completely wiped him it’d be almost silly to try and race so soon after that.
I guess their individual decisions will/may depend on med tests in the next 10 days. I hope wisdom prevails.
Knibb said (Feisty pod) that she was likely to excise two of her (3) scheduled races (Marbella, T100 Dubai and T100 Qatar). I interpreted that as the two ‘hot’ races but maybe it was the two soonest, and time to recover for Qatar. Trouble with that choice is that by missing Dubai she limits herself to a bit part in the ‘Road to Qatar’ final standings as she’ll be down the standings having scored only three races (and fails to meet her contract: not travelling to Frejus comes back to bite). I assume she’ll just hand back the T100 contract and merely keep her race winnings from SF, Van and London ($55,000).
Charles-Barclay has a less complicated choice, guided by the tests of course. She has met her T100 regular season contracted commitment and I assume will race Qatar whatever ($$ EoY bonus and a fair chance of the overall win). On insta she’s touting a holiday training camp in the Maldives (easy travel from Qatar) a couple of days later. How is her climbing cf Knibb or Findlay or Matthews or Philipp given the Marbella profile? She avoided Frejus which retrospectively might have been a better T100 for her schedule-wise in the prep for Kona (cf flat Spain three weeks before). I guess this competition level may tip the balance against Marbella (1500m climb).
2014 is really the last time he raced when the top heavy hitters toed the starting line. I suspected he wasn’t going to end up racing.
I would have loved to see Wylde racing Blu at 70.3
GTB is a beast on the bike, she’s was leading the British Gravel Champs for a long time on a very hilly course.
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Excellent ST article by @Ironmandad
Not mentioned: Neubert, Meißner, Bitados, Crociani, Dickinson, Hidalgo and Schomburg
Just to clarify - that story was written by Ben Snider-McGrath!
Good catches on the names we didn’t include.
It didn’t make many headlines as she finished pretty far back, but she was also in the lead of that t100 race until like mile 5 or so I the run (I don’t remember which race it was). She definitely could be a wildcard, especially if she is able to climb well.
LCB training on her vacation right now makes me feel like she definitely wants redemption at 70.3 worlds. If she was truly cooked, I have to think she’d write off her fitness and just show up to the T100 final to check the box.
GTB - rode well on a scenic course in Frejus (all the top 4 skipped it) and then suffered on the run. When on song GTB is an excellent runner.
LCB on vacation? In Essex? The Maldives wheeze is for after Qatar. Or maybe you know more (which would not be difficult - I recall snuffling animals in the autumn plane leaves). Sincerely hope she races, provided medically sensible to. Company for Learmonth in the water, at least.
Maybe I’m just rooting for a short course athlete to mix up the field and put some pressure on the favorites
Thorsten has published his (NB data based) ‘Seedings’:
Women’s order unsurprising. Suggesting that Charles-Barclay will run the same time as Matthews is just that: data. I note Learmonth, GTB and Neubert right ‘up there’. And how about Arnold, whom I’d missed in my ‘trawl’ of the start list. She finished #17 in Wollongong: and very consistent in the last two years’ WTCS races, placing between #14 and #24 and #20 in Paris Olympics. Not an FP swimmer.
Men’s list definitely “data-based”.
There are 2 ladies in the top 10 that I have never heard off, I am guessing they are regular WTCS folks, the Brazilian and Ftanya (?) from Germany. Wonder what they are capable off! Has Knibb confirmed that she is showing up? If she does , it means she is skipping the remaining 2 T100s?
No major surprises in the men’s
question is who will they invite to the pro panel? Does Chelsea deserve a guest appearance?
If I remember correctly, Taylor mentioned the potential of missing two of three races post Kona after her heat induced DNF. Since the Marbella temperatures ought to be very mild compared to Kona this would seem to be the most reasonable race for her to do.
YMMV
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I comment on both Neubert and Arnold in earlier posts. As an aside, I respect them by using their name and spelling their names correctly.
Whether LCB or Knibb decide they are fit to race, I deal with in my post (above and link below). doubt either will ‘finally’ decide for another week.
I’d be amazed if Sodaro travels and in any case, why would she be on the pro panel - duty mother? They’ll have Learmonth for that, well actually because she adds value to any such panel. With Knibb they’ll have the duty American already. Last good 70.3WC by Sodaro was Nice in 2019, and impressive in #4, overtaking a flagging Charles-Barclay on the last lap.
neubert is an interesting one comes from the same development coach
that has also coached the male podium at 70.3 world champs in lahti at some stage of their development. and because she was a weaker swimmer had to cycle hard in most races when young to catch up.
she is my gustav iden 2019…
7 top 12 results at world series level this year 1 podium
Here are the Tri247 takes on the start list with a survey of the likely players:
With regard to the women, without being sure whether or not Knibb and LCB will toe the line, speculation on how the race will go has to be bifurcated.
- With either, Matthews has to chase to keep the gap at T2 doable, with Knibb off the front and LCB trailing in Knibb’s wake.
- Without she can ease back, on the bike catch some of the fish (GTB, Learmonth, Arnold) and hold on to anyone. ?Findlay probably strongest given Løvseth doesn’t climb (Zell am See) and then rely on her run.
Many finished IMWC only 16 days ago: Løvseth, Matthews, Perterer, Hollioake, De Boer, Derron, Svensk, Lee, Stage Nielsen, Pierré, Christensen. Philipp we are told is not racing.
I think both the swim-bikers will start: Knibb will do this race and not race the T100 ‘hot ones’ and LCB was pulled out early enough (Energy Lab) to recover for Marbella and then race the T100 GF a month later on the cool shore of the Persian Gulf (in it to win it ($$$)). (NB Both plus Perterer are on the Dubai start list, still) Let’s hope the pre- and post-race chat is about the winners and podium, and not about athletes who chose not to race (missing in inaction) or athletes who forget the race is a triathlon and go too hard too early.