Since finishing my tri season in September I have been training for my 3rd Honolulu Marathon (also my third marathon) on December 14.
I am trying for a sub-3 hour time. I am possibly a few minutes off the mark…but I will give it a go.
I raced 5 weeks ago in a 30 K race, and 2 weeks ago on a 1/2 M.
Typically train 55 miles/week, peaked at 70 miles/week. Turn 40 years old (very old!) a week before the race. 5’9" tall, 145lb.
For the 30k race I tried a new pacing strategy of the first 15 k at 8 min/mile, and the last 15 k at 6 min/mile, so averaged just under 7m/mile, but I had some fuel left in my tank at the finish and should have picked up the pace earlier, or probably better to have done the first 15k quicker than 8’s.
On the recent 1/2M I went out at 6:40 m/mile and split each mile at an average of 6:30, except the last 1 or 2 where I went 6:20’s. Finished in 1:25.
Now for race day, should I break up the race into 4 parts and pace accordingly, or maybe only 2 parts ?
Or should I just monitor every mile split and adjust as I feel at the time?
I need to average 6:52’s to get sub-3 hours. Course is up hill at miles 7-9, and 23-25, but I love hills.
Seriously, do you know a few runners in your area that are 3 hr marathoners that you may pace with? If you can get one or two runners and develop a plan of teamwork it can really help through the tough spots.
I may be criticized for saying this but I don’t “think” you should “over think” your marathon by developing specific concrete plans. If you become a slave to the clock it can cause problems but you still have to run within your current capacity (which may be hard if you don’t have a clock to gauge yourself with). Even though I don’t use a HRM, I do see the feasibility for situations like this. One of my concerns with the clock is the possiblity of getting yourself mentally out of the game if you are 19 seconds over pace 5 miles in, whereas, if you didn’t have the mental burden of being behind pace you could potentially run faster later by merely not having the mental burden weighing on you mile after mile. Just a thought.
Based on your times, I think you should be very close to going sub 3 hrs - I’d say based on a 1:25 in a half IM and running 6 min/mile for 2nd half of a 30K, you should be able to go sub-3hrs fairly comfortably…
I don’t have any great pacing ideas - you could check out runnersworld.com. If it was me - I’d try something like:
10 miles at 7 min then 5 at 6:55 then 5 at 6:50 then see how you feel (you’ll be like 1 1/2 minutes behind pace which you can easily make up) - if you don’t feel good then you know that a sub 3 isn’t in the cards that day… if you feel good - just hammer that last 10K! I wouldn’t start out too slow - you don’t save nearly enough energy by running 8’s compared to running 6’s to make it up…I’d go for fairly even pacing - ideally 15-20 seconds from slowest mile to fastest…
I’ll offer another suggestion ( with all due respect to Joe Friel) and that is that even splits or slight negative split ( 2nd half 1-2 min faster than first) tends to have a higher likelihood of success. In other words, allowing for hills, try to keep your pace in the 6:50-6:55 range.
You stated in your post that the goal was to go sub 3 hrs. If this is your “no holds barred” gotta break 3 hrs. race, then even pacing is your best chance for success. But be warned you run the risk of bonking hard if you come up short.
Certainly your training mileage and half marathon time trial put you in the ball park but there are no guarantees in marathon racing.
I agree with Julian’s interpetation of Friel’s chart. But I think you need to remember that a marathon is different from other races, and you never can tell what will happen after you hit the 20 mile mark. I would suggest setting a pace that will leave you with a little time “in the bank” when you get to 20 miles. That way, if you have a bad patch in the last 10K you can still meet your goal. When I qualified for Boston I had a tough time miles 23-25, but was able to back off, still run smoothly, and hit my time. Good Luck!
I would suggest you go as fast as possible and then wait for me at the top of Diamond Head going both directions. I should be coming in about another hour! :~)
I’ll pass on a couple of observations I can make having just run the Marine Corps Marathon.
The first thing you need to do is take a hard look at your training and determine a realistic goal pace. To often I “hope” to run something when I have nothing to back it up. Case in point—this year at Marine Corps I ‘hoped’ to run 2:35-2:40. I had one 20-mile race and a couple of half marathon times that said it might be possible, but sickness had kept me from really good mileage and consistent long runs. I died at 20 and limped slowly through the final miles.
Once you have a good pace then break it into halves and plan to run the first half a little slow and the second half a little fast, i.e., if you want to run three hours run a 1:32 first half and 1:28 second. This allows for two things—1) you don’t go out too fast, 2) if you aren’t having a good day then the race won’t turn into a nightmare. During, all three marathons I have finished, the last six miles were horrific because I just ran too fast early.
Last, you need to do a good weather evaluation on race day. If it is little warm (about 60 degrees) add five minutes. If it is humid (above 70 percent), then add another five minutes. Add a few more minutes for wind. Most people, including me, are in denial on race day and don’t like to vary from their pre-planned pace. If the above conditions are there and you try to run through them, you will die (figuratively speaking).
The above ideas should make it an enjoyable race. Or you can do like I did and run 6:05 pace for 20 miles and then walk/shuffle to the finish all the while contemplating why do hate the sport.
it basically divides the the marathon into three segments, mile 1 - 10, miles 11 - 20 and then the final 10km. The first ten miles run at slightly slower than projected average goal pace, second 10 miles at slightly faster than average goal pace. This should get you to the final 10km feeling strong and ready to maintain your projected average pace or even pick it up and certainly lead to a negative split.
It’s been said before that the pacing is critical in the early miles of a marathon. I have run a couple where the pace past 15 miles has felt like a joke, then all of a sudden just past the 20 mile mark the legs turn to rock. These have been attemped even pace efforts - run 6:00 flat the whole way or try to for s 2:36 finish. In both of these races I did fade off the even 6:00 min/mile pace running 2:40, but the effort over the last few miles was monumental!! I wonder if dead even pacing is not the best and heading out at slightly slower pace, even a few seconds a mile( say 6:05 - 6:10 for me in these efforts) would have made a difference in how I was able to maintain the pace deep into the race.
I know how I get flamed for saying these sorts of things on marathon forums, but running economy decreases after two hours of running. That said I’m working on the same time in January, in Houston. I plan to run 7:10-7:15 the first two miles, then four separate 10K races @ 6:45 - 6:40 - 6:45 - 6:50.
I’m 38, done 14 marathons, gone sub 3 eleven times. I don’t buy the even pace crap. Never works for me. I go by the theory that you have to comfortably “bank” some time in the first half because you will “fade” a bit in the second half. You can go through the top 200 finishers in any major marathon and look at the splits and 95% of people will fade a bit. Are you one of the other 5% who even split or negative split. My view is that many of the “even split crowd” could go faster if they went a bit faster in the first half.
So when I used to run ~ 2:50, I’d go 1:20/1:30. For three hours, 1:25-1:27/1:32-1:34. This seems to work all the time and once you have some time “banked” psychologically, you have a bit of a buffer if things start to fall apart. If you have no time “banked” (i.e. if you run 1:29 or so in the first half), you pretty well have to keep the pressure on for the entire second half and not waiver. Much easier to do in the first half when you are fresh and then “enjoy” the second half knowing you have a nice buffer. It is really tough keeping the speed the same through the whole event. I’d rather stay at the same “perceived exertion” for the whole race. Start in moderate discomfort, finish in moderate discomfort, rather than starting like it is an easy Sunday run and ending like you feel an 800 lb gorilla on your back !
