I’ve decided to put some real training into my prep for this half, i can fake an olympic, i know a half would be death if i tried.
Currently i’m swimming 6:50 500/yds in the pool
I just did my second bike for the day. I did a 2:15 min easy ride this afternoon and just got done with a 90 min high z2 low z3. I avg 220 watts, which should be right around 23.5mph on a flat course.
Yesterday i did a tempo at 6:50/mile for 7.2. It was coming off a 3 hour moderate training day the day before, it was also my first run outside in 3 months.
I figure that should put me somewhere in the ballpark of 4:30 - 4:35, since i heard the bike course is long and the run sucks.
The tempo run yesterday was more of a test, i still have 2 1/2 weeks until i start my build phase. So i haven’t done any other tempo work besides that.
Is 4 months enough to drop another 10-15 mins? Thanks
yeah i did, i was taking an educated guess on the wattage though since i havent done a 20min TT yet. So i’m not sure how acurate that really is. Athough i know it is a pretty good calculator when everything is pluged in right.
I’ve decided to put some real training into my prep for this half, i can fake an olympic, i know a half would be death if i tried.
Currently i’m swimming 6:50 500/yds in the pool
I just did my second bike for the day. I did a 2:15 min easy ride this afternoon and just got done with a 90 min high z2 low z3. I avg 220 watts, which should be right around 23.5mph on a flat course.
Yesterday i did a tempo at 6:50/mile for 7.2. It was coming off a 3 hour moderate training day the day before, it was also my first run outside in 3 months.
I figure that should put me somewhere in the ballpark of 4:30 - 4:35, since i heard the bike course is long and the run sucks.
The tempo run yesterday was more of a test, i still have 2 1/2 weeks until i start my build phase. So i haven’t done any other tempo work besides that.
Is 4 months enough to drop another 10-15 mins? Thanks
No doubt that you can do it, but 220w will likely not get you a 23.5mph avg.–even on a Florida course.
my watts were 297, 160lbs, 24.3mph, relatively wind free day. Re: draft…theres no one to draft at the pointy end of the field in this half, its not clearwater or panama city. The bike course has NOT been long in my three years of doing it, the swim is fast (protected lake) but the elderly and slow go off earlt and you have to swim thru them so that’ll hurt your swim a minute even. The run is half choppy uneven trail/ grass so do some work in similar conditions off your bike if you want to better 1:30. Good luck bro, go hard!
Last time in Florida at st Anthonys I did 24mph on 230 watts so 23.5 should be a pretty good guess. It was also on the CT. Which is always lower then my outside watts.
Knowing your background and experience in the sport with recent best times would be more helpful than recent workouts. Outside of races, time trials or test sets are better at benchmarking performance and creating measurable race goals than your power/pace for a “z2/z3” ride or a “tempo” run.
What are some of your swim bike run and triathlon pb’s?
Wow, this is new…don’t worry about actually entering races…just do some random workouts at home and voila, you get 4:30-4:35…
…all kidding aside, when is the last time you went 4:30? Let’s assume you went 4:30 last year and these workouts are what you were doing week in and week out, every workout, then you have a good chance of hitting 4:30 again, assuming you can go out and hit these workout with the same frequency as you were when you last went 4:30…if these workouts are a “one off” then I don’t think you can draw any conclusions. Racing fast consistently is about elevating your performance on bad days…in other words, on your worst case “I feel like crap day” how fast can I go? If I just take random good workouts and project them to race day, things may or may not fall in line. The goal is to elevate day in day out fitness so your worst case day still gets you to the target goal.
4:20 is possible, but not too realistic given your run fitness. Given your splits, you are looking at taking the time out of the run, and 10-15 minutes is a lot.
It doesn’t really matter how fast you bike/swim if you are running 8:00/miles out of T2.
For 4:20 you are coming out of T2 at 2:55 and putting down a 1:25, or out of T2 at 3:00 and putting down a 1:20…realistically you better be running 2:45 to 2:50 into the race to safely do a 4:20.
How many of these people can you beat (you better consistently be faster than Nina Kraft and Leanda Cave):
1 03:52:51 AMEY, PAUL CARDIFF BY TH CA USA 1/19 MPRO 14 7 8 25:27 1:17 2:06 1 1 2:07:11 26.4 0:50 1 1 1:17:18 5:55
2 03:56:33 ASCENCO, SANTIAGO GOANIA BRA 2/19 MPRO 3 9 10 25:29 1:17 2:00 2 2 2:09:00 26.0 0:55 3 3 1:19:11 6:03
3 03:59:04 SMITH, SPENCER PALM HARBOR FL USA 3/19 MPRO 27 6 7 25:26 1:17 2:10 3 3 2:10:16 25.8 1:00 6 6 1:20:14 6:08
4 03:59:42 OGDEN, COURTNEY PERTH AUS 4/19 MPRO 9 12 13 25:37 1:17 2:14 8 8 2:12:07 25.4 1:33 2 2 1:18:13 5:59
5 03:59:56 LISSKA, KEVIN FLETCHER NC USA 5/19 MPRO 22 2 3 25:17 1:16 2:04 7 7 2:10:32 25.7 1:22 7 7 1:20:43 6:10
6 04:03:10 RHODES, BRYAN TAUPO NZL 6/19 MPRO 2 1 2 25:09 1:16 2:11 5 5 2:10:26 25.8 1:01 9 9 1:24:26 6:27
7 04:05:18 POULSEN, BRENT ORILLIA ON CAN 7/19 MPRO 20 8 9 25:28 1:17 2:01 9 9 2:12:49 25.3 1:12 8 8 1:23:49 6:24
8 04:11:56 HODGES, ANDREW HUNTSVILLE AL USA 8/19 MPRO 12 10 11 25:30 1:17 2:25 12 47 2:22:42 23.5 1:18 4 4 1:20:01 6:07
9 04:17:13 MORACCI, JAMIE LEAMINGTON ON CAN 1/254 M30-34 2248 3 28 27:33 1:23 2:31 1 15 2:17:32 24.4 1:11 1 18 1:28:27 6:46
10 04:17:30 SENG, BRAD BOULDER CO USA 9/19 MPRO 23 17 69 30:14 1:31 2:34 13 58 2:23:18 23.4 1:15 5 5 1:20:11 6:08
11 04:18:45 ORNELLAS, MARCUS NITEROI BRA 10/19 MPRO 5 5 6 25:23 1:17 1:59 6 6 2:10:32 25.7 1:04 13 107 1:39:49 7:38
12 04:19:37 MATHISEN, ARTHUR APO AP USA 1/351 M35-39 1990 15 72 30:17 1:31 2:52 1 10 2:13:22 25.2 1:22 4 30 1:31:46 7:01
13 04:21:26 ZASTROW, ADAM SAN RAFAEL CA USA 1/152 M25-29 1382 8 53 29:22 1:29 3:15 9 33 2:21:12 23.8 1:51 1 11 1:25:47 6:33
14 04:21:36 HAY, MICHAEL SUDBURY ON CAN 11/19 MPRO 15 16 38 28:32 1:26 2:36 10 24 2:19:42 24.1 1:25 11 23 1:29:23 6:50
15 04:22:25 MACLACHLAN, MARK ATLANTA GA USA 2/351 M35-39 1784 26 127 31:39 1:35 3:31 2 11 2:14:24 25.0 1:14 3 29 1:31:40 7:00
16 04:22:39 VAN ZYL, ANTON FORT LAUDERDA FL USA 3/351 M35-39 1837 16 78 30:24 1:32 2:39 11 50 2:22:58 23.5 1:30 1 10 1:25:10 6:31
17 04:22:52 CAVE, LEANDA MILL VALLEY CA USA 1/13 WPRO 38 2 16 25:56 1:18 2:28 3 110 2:26:35 22.9 1:02 1 13 1:26:52 6:38
18 04:24:15 KRAFT, NINA BRAUNSCHWEIG DEU 2/13 WPRO 35 3 18 25:59 1:18 2:10 4 121 2:27:09 22.8 1:09 3 16 1:27:51 6:43
19 04:24:37 CASTILLO LATORRE, ANDR MIAMI COL 2/152 M25-29 1231 2 17 25:58 1:18 2:34 22 131 2:27:38 22.8 1:06 2 14 1:27:22 6:41
20 04:24:45 TOPAN, LUIZ NOVA LIMA BRA 1/281 M40-44 962 1 41 28:43 1:27 2:54 15 96 2:25:55 23.0 1:03 1 12 1:26:12 6:35
21 04:25:52 MONAGHAN, BRIAN COCONUT GROVE FL USA 3/152 M25-29 1215 14 76 30:23 1:32 3:01 12 48 2:22:48 23.5 1:14 3 19 1:28:28 6:46
i made the list above - went 4:17
ok, first of all, there is so many factors that its hard to really say , but …
swimming - are you talking about a TT in that time or your steady pace? anyways, i dont swim in y, but i can do 500m in around that time… maybe a bit quicker
bike - i avg’d 270w at FL
run - is a very slow course imo. the grass section is slow, and on top of that i was in one of the last waves and had to weave in and out of people the entire time. I’m a 1:15 open half runner and ran 1:28 (which was the culmination of many factors)
If he wants to be running by 2:50 he needs a 30 min swim+2:20 bike (take 3 min total off the two for transitions)…sounds like he needs to swim just as fast as J-MO and get the wattage well north of 250 assuming J-MO was reasonably aero?
First off, the swim is pretty close to accurate and the lake is usually pretty calm. However, keep in mind that it has always been too warm for a wetsuit.
IIRC, the bike course was a tad long last year. Additionally, it is certainly possible to average over 23.5 mph @ 220 watts on that course… and thats without the benefit of the AG draft (which would inflate your speed but not average power).
Now as for the run… I think the distance is correct but it is slow due to the sand and heat + humidity.
Overall its hard to give a good prediction from the information provided. For instance, “tempo run” means different things to different people. To get a good idea of the pace you should be shooting for, I’d jump in a running race (10k or half marathon preferred but 5k would work as well) to gauge your fitness. Then take that number and put it in McMillan’s calculator or look at Daniel’s charts and see what it predicts for your marathon race pace. Then I’d use that as a target for your race pace in the 70.3.
