You are 100% delusional. Remco, Ganna, Tarling et al. would make quick work of Laidlow and Ditlev in a 180 km TT.
Again, you folks don’t like numbers, but most logical folks like me do: a triathlete biked just over 51 km in a velodrome, a cyclist bikes almost 57 kmh. That same rider averages the wattage what a guy like Laidlow does for 180 km on any random 5 hour training ride. There is no houdini-magical bs triathlete specialty about biking 4 hours on a TT bike, is an aerobic effort that the guys who are the best riders in the world on a TT bike would do 5-6 kph faster than the best triathletes.
Check out Wurf stats on procycling stats against these guys, do you think he will magically beat 200 guys better than him on a TT bike just by making the TT distance a little longer?
I remember when y’all were wearing your little yellow bracelets and would play the whole “I am sorry you don’t believe in miracles” cards…I don’t Blu needs a miracle to win the tour or even place top 80 in a TT against these guys.
Just to be clear, the numbers we have for triathletes over 180km is during an 8 hrs day, not a 4 hrs day. We don’t really know what any pro cyclists would hold in an 8 hrs day, but we also don’t know what triathletes would do in a 180km TT. Perhaps the best proxy is take 70.3 wattage and double the time to guess what the best triathlete bikers would do standalone in a full on 180km TT.
But fair point, Lionel’s standalone hour record is way off Dowsett and Capanaerts, but Campanaerts was a triathlete first before just focusing on riding and so was Lance and Ritchie Porte.
I still think Blu ends up being a pro cycling workhorse and won’t wear jerseys!!!
What would you say if instead of switching to cycling he would be switching to swimming and swimming at a gold medal at LA in for years? Any distance, even open water. I get that swimming has a technical component that is larger than in cycling, but it would be just as delusional.
Running is hard, swimming is harder, cycling is easy to learn and easy to get great at if you’re fit. And it can be done in years from nothing, not decades like the other two. I went from cat 4 to a pro in 4 years from never ridden a bike. Lance did the same thing as did Mike Pigg and many others . That’s the difference…
You are not taking ages and time into account. At what age did those transitions happen? Lance transitioned at around 20 and it took him 9 years to win tdf. Not taking into account he was riding a Ferrari…
What would you say if instead of switching to cycling he would be switching to swimming and swimming at a gold medal at LA in for years? Any distance, even open water. I get that swimming has a technical component that is larger than in cycling, but it would be just as delusional.
It’s totally delusional for anyone to go to world level in swimming or running switching from any sport in late 20’s. Its many orders of magnitude of technique compared to cycling.
By definition EVERYONE at the pro level (maybe minus MVdP) came to cycling from another sport (or another group of sports). Rowing falls into the same category. The mechanical feature of a bike or a boat allows coaches to scout athletes with massive engines and morph them into elite athletes because of the machine interface to applying power. In run and swim, its just the body applying pressure in an nuanced ways. So its really delusional to get to pro level in swim and run coming from anything but swim and run. For bike everyone comes from something else!!!
What would you say if instead of switching to cycling he would be switching to swimming and swimming at a gold medal at LA in for years? Any distance, even open water. I get that swimming has a technical component that is larger than in cycling, but it would be just as delusional.
It’s totally delusional for anyone to go to world level in swimming or running switching from any sport in late 20’s. Its many orders of magnitude of technique compared to cycling.
By definition EVERYONE at the pro level (maybe minus MVdP) came to cycling from another sport (or another group of sports). Rowing falls into the same category. The mechanical feature of a bike or a boat allows coaches to scout athletes with massive engines and morph them into elite athletes because of the machine interface to applying power. In run and swim, its just the body applying pressure in a nuanced ways. So its really delusional to get to pro level in swim and run coming from anything but swim and run. For bike everyone comes from something else!!!
Saying that everyone in pro cycling is coming from other sports is an extreme exaggeration. Sure, if you go far enough back, regardless of what their main sports turns out to be, most athletes will have done some other sport at some point but most pro cyclists will have focused on cycling from early youth/juniors. Even Remco was fully switched over to cycling by his first junior year. Road racing in cycling also usually starts at later ages than most other sports because of the being in traffic aspect of training/racing so it’s more likely they have done other sports before that.
It’s not however very common to make the switch to pro cycling later in life even if it happens on rare occasions. But it does happen in running as well sometimes such as with Nienke Brinkmann and some others so not really a huge difference there.
Running is hard, swimming is harder, cycling is easy to learn and easy to get great at if you’re fit. And it can be done in years from nothing, not decades like the other two. I went from cat 4 to a pro in 4 years from never ridden a bike. Lance did the same thing as did Mike Pigg and many others . That’s the difference…
So you really think KB has a shot at the Lanterne Rouge?
On the latest episode of “the cycling podcast”, Larry Warbasse gives his take on it as a pro rider.
He is quite positive on Blu and Bu.
The host, Daniel, seems to say Bu’s comments were taken out of context.
So KBs lightest weight back in Tokyo was around 73kg. The highest FTP I’ve heard quoted for him is 410w. So optimistically 5.6 W/kg FTP.
Now what does this mean? Well without the context of his 5sec, 1min and 5min power values and also what these would be after say 4 hours of riding, there is absolutely no way to know where he would be in the peloton. And that’s before we get into racecraft and technical skills. But I suspect from his FTP and the way he races in ITU, he would need significant improvements to be anything other than a low level domestique.
I think the one thing alot of folk are missing when comparing him to Remco, Roglic, Lance etc is that he is 30, not a teenager. So he is already aerobically well trained and has been training 30 hours per week for a decade. So specificity to cycling is really where the main gains are gonna come. Not sure the economics of this move, but it seems more in Bu’s interests than it is in KB’s.
So you really think KB has a shot at the Lanterne Rouge? //
I really dont know what his goals are, and dont think anyone here knows either. Lots of things being thrown about, bad translations, and just plain speculation. Has Blu actually said he is going to win the TDF anywhere, show me???
And hell, I dont know how he will do, just know he has an enormous engine, and the same arguments that many are making about his physique and weight, are the same ones that were probably saying the same exact think 10 years ago about him being a gold medalist, and best long distance racer ever. You could cut and paste all those comments back then to the ones that are being thrown around now towards cycling…
I have no predictions, just that looking at what suit size he wears and making predictions, well that hasn’t been right up to know, or ever…
So you really think KB has a shot at the Lanterne Rouge? //
I really dont know what his goals are, and dont think anyone here knows either. Lots of things being thrown about, bad translations, and just plain speculation. Has Blu actually said he is going to win the TDF anywhere, show me???
And hell, I dont know how he will do, just know he has an enormous engine, and the same arguments that many are making about his physique and weight, are the same ones that were probably saying the same exact think 10 years ago about him being a gold medalist, and best long distance racer ever. You could cut and paste all those comments back then to the ones that are being thrown around now towards cycling…
I have no predictions, just that looking at what suit size he wears and making predictions, well that hasn’t been right up to know, or ever…
For me it’s just a straight up case of can he develop the power profile, technical skills and racecraft this late in his athletic career, if pro cycling is indeed the way he wants to go.
For me there’s alot still to achieve in Tri. But if that doesn’t float his boat and he needs a totally new challenge then fair enough.
For me it’s just a straight up case of can he develop the power profile, technical skills and racecraft this late in his athletic career, if pro cycling is indeed the way he wants to go. //
Of course, but he seems to have no fear in a pack, so that is a huge start. Or fear of anything really. And he knows how to suffer, another metric that is unmeasured, but so important in cycling too. And like you I am not sure why he is walking away from another 10 years in long distance triathlon, where he can make a fortune and cement himself as GOAT if he stayed on this track he finds himself on. But maybe he is just bored, or maybe he will do both at the same time, imagine we will see Knibb doing that going forward is some fashion.
I of course will be watching closely, just like when Gwen went to running, Lance to cycling,. Will he be more like a Spencer Smith, a guy with huge power but no real pack smarts, or like Lance, world class brain for tactics, strategy, and of course whatever it took to compete in his day of cycling…
For me it’s just a straight up case of can he develop the power profile, technical skills and racecraft this late in his athletic career, if pro cycling is indeed the way he wants to go. //
Of course, but he seems to have no fear in a pack, so that is a huge start. Or fear of anything really. And he knows how to suffer, another metric that is unmeasured, but so important in cycling too. And like you I am not sure why he is walking away from another 10 years in long distance triathlon, where he can make a fortune and cement himself as GOAT if he stayed on this track he finds himself on. But maybe he is just bored, or maybe he will do both at the same time, imagine we will see Knibb doing that going forward is some fashion.
I of course will be watching closely, just like when Gwen went to running, Lance to cycling,. Will he be more like a Spencer Smith, a guy with huge power but no real pack smarts, or like Lance, world class brain for tactics, strategy, and of course whatever it took to compete in his day of cycling…
I think the Lance comparisons are kinda off though, as KB is 10 years older and of course then there is the copious amounts of EPO which I hope KB ain’t willing to take.
Can’t remember seeing much footage of his descending skills in Nice, as he was out of shot by then. But I do remember VL absolutely burning him and JB on the corners in Hamburg, in I think 2019 when they tried a 3 up break (it was not successful).
That’s like telling me the ocean is 100ft deep vs the pool being 10ft. If you are in the middle of 40 or 180 you are surrounded the same. OF course there is a difference, one has more people, but not as big as you might think. I rode in many races with 140+ riders, didnt find it any different than the Wednesday ride we did every week with 80 to 100 riders. Actually a lot safer as you could trust the quality of racers more in the big races.
Like I said, fear of the pack is the biggest limiter, like we see with a “lot” of the women and a few men in ITU. Blu has none of that, in the middle, off the back, on the front, or chasing all alone. That usually does a person well when attempting to be part of a big peloton.
Blu needs a miracle to win the tour or even place top 80 in a TT against these guys.