On the latest episode of “the cycling podcast”, Larry Warbasse gives his take on it as a pro rider.
He is quite positive on Blu and Bu.
The host, Daniel, seems to say Bu’s comments were taken out of context.
So KBs lightest weight back in Tokyo was around 73kg. The highest FTP I’ve heard quoted for him is 410w. So optimistically 5.6 W/kg FTP.
Now what does this mean? Well without the context of his 5sec, 1min and 5min power values and also what these would be after say 4 hours of riding, there is absolutely no way to know where he would be in the peloton. And that’s before we get into racecraft and technical skills. But I suspect from his FTP and the way he races in ITU, he would need significant improvements to be anything other than a low level domestique.
I think the one thing alot of folk are missing when comparing him to Remco, Roglic, Lance etc is that he is 30, not a teenager. So he is already aerobically well trained and has been training 30 hours per week for a decade. So specificity to cycling is really where the main gains are gonna come. Not sure the economics of this move, but it seems more in Bu’s interests than it is in KB’s.
Similar thoughts were expressed on Pro Tri News this week.
I think they also unfairly gave a take that Kristian wasn’t good (I mean 12th is still fine at the Olympics) because of this story. I feel like that’s some outdated/gut feeling kind of take not rooted in anything. Blu has to be one of the most competitive people on the planet. He wants to win every race he enters. He wanted a repeat Olympic gold. He wants Kona. He wants pro cycling down the road. He didn’t train any less hard & I doubt his motivations changed. I also think if you were paying attention that his body just never readjusted from long course to short course. He hasn’t been the same athlete once he’s come back to short course. I don’t think anybody realistically expected him to win (different from wanted him to win). Guys are getting faster & faster & he’s 30 now. You can still train hard/want to win/have a plan after the Olympics & not be checked out.
I think another problem with PTN’s take, is that this was being pushed by Bu not KB in the media. I feel he’s seen the Dan Lorang career trajectory, and thought “hmmm KB could be a good entry point”. And to be honest I think he’d be very good in a Pro Cycling role. Just not sure about KB.
further, the ITTs have gotten shorter, the TTTs have disappeared, and there’s more climbing and now some gravel stages. so skill may matter more now than it did in your tours. //
Granted they are faster than we were in the 1980’s, but what sport isnt? Seems like you have made a statement that everyone knows to be 100% true. Not sure your point, it is not me racing today, it is a modern athlete with all the advantages we didnt have. Hell, we thought that our 20lb bikes, with 20mm sewup tires on skinny 32 spoked wheels where the shit, and pumped up to 140+lbs!! Our cranks were too long and we had Flinstone bars and bike parts too. So yes, they are faster today than my day, thanks for the reminder…(-;
What hasn’t changed however is competition. It is still a race, there are winners and losers, and everyone today gets the benefit of the technology of the past 50 years. Of course cycling may have changed a bit more than other sports, but that is because of the mechanical advantage built into it, and the huge advances in those machines. Runners have a little better shoe, swimmers have a tighter suit and a better pool, but overall the biggest advancement has been mechanical, with some in the actual athletes…
Totally agree – so KB wasn’t focused on the Olympics because his coach has post-Olympic aspirations? Just feels like a take not rooted in fact & one that’s really hard on the athlete. No matter what KB wants to do in 1/3/5/10 years, he wants to do his best & win whatever events he’s training for. He just didn’t have it in short course. We saw that in his lead-in (10th Yokohama, 31st Cagliari w./ a flat but got off & ran & didn’t have a top-15 run split). He didn’t suddenly become unfocused race week when this stuff was reported on more. He’s better at long course now.
Totally agree – so KB wasn’t focused on the Olympics because his coach has post-Olympic aspirations? Just feels like a take not rooted in fact & one that’s really hard on the athlete. No matter what KB wants to do in 1/3/5/10 years, he wants to do his best & win whatever events he’s training for. He just didn’t have it in short course. We saw that in his lead-in (10th Yokohama, 31st Cagliari w./ a flat but got off & ran & didn’t have a top-15 run split). He didn’t suddenly become unfocused race week when this stuff was reported on more. He’s better at long course now.
I really really hope he’s goes after long course for the next 4 years and mixes it up between T100, IM worlds and 70.3 worlds. He’ll win some, he’ll lose some, but at the end of it all he’ll have a record that’ll probably be comparable to all the modern day greats in my opinion. And he’ll also never be short of a few quid
Bjorn, you are correct when I said almost everyone in pro cycling comes from a different sport, it applies to “if you go back long enough”. In swimming or running, only exceptions reach elite levels when only starting in those sports in mid teens. Whereas in cycling almost everyone starts only in mid teens. But there are examples who start in their twenties. Faulkner just won Olympic gold, and something like 6 years ago “all she had done” was row at Harvard. That does not give one pack skills, but it does develop an engine. Cam Wurf came from rowing, Roglic from Ski Jumping, Dygert from basketball, Lance from tri, Porte from Tri, Campanaerts from Tri. We had others like Clara Hughes started in speedskating and went to road cycling, back to speed skating. I believe Krista Luding (former West Germany) going from speed skating to track cycling (OK not road but still), Steve Bauer from ice hockey to pro cycling.
All of these people joined pro cycling well after teenage years into adult life. Kristian would be joining cycling later than them, but can he learn pack instincts and skills at his age as good as many of the above learned in their 20s?
Dev
So you mention a handful of exceptions spread out over a +40 year time frame out of how many elite/pro cyclist through the system? At least four of the ones you mention were also committed to cycling in their teens. There’s also possible to find those exceptions in running and contrary to what you say the runner I mentioned earlier started running in her late twenties and reached elite level. So it’s certainly possible to start/switch late but those instances are always very rare regardless of it being in cycling or running. To say everyone, or almost everyone, in pro cycling comes from another sport is just completely wrong frankly.
further, the ITTs have gotten shorter, the TTTs have disappeared, and there’s more climbing and now some gravel stages. so skill may matter more now than it did in your tours. //
Granted they are faster than we were in the 1980’s, but what sport isnt? Seems like you have made a statement that everyone knows to be 100% true. Not sure your point, it is not me racing today, it is a modern athlete with all the advantages we didnt have. Hell, we thought that our 20lb bikes, with 20mm sewup tires on skinny 32 spoked wheels where the shit, and pumped up to 140+lbs!! Our cranks were too long and we had Flinstone bars and bike parts too. So yes, they are faster today than my day, thanks for the reminder…(-;
What hasn’t changed however is competition. It is still a race, there are winners and losers, and everyone today gets the benefit of the technology of the past 50 years. Of course cycling may have changed a bit more than other sports, but that is because of the mechanical advantage built into it, and the huge advances in those machines. Runners have a little better shoe, swimmers have a tighter suit and a better pool, but overall the biggest advancement has been mechanical, with some in the actual athletes…
fair enough. what years did you race the tour de france?
If you want to exchange chocolate chip cookie and gingerbread men recipes for sure. As I read in a previous post this is a technology transfer deal, which makes a lot of sense. If that technology took KB from where he was at 25 to winning an unrealistic OG, that could take the top jayco riders to having a chance at the tour.
What I find particularly hilarious in this whole saga is that they didn’t say he’s going to pro cycling and leave it at that. Oh no, they claimed he’s going to win the tdf. Now that is some serious professional trolling.
I just can’t help but wonder how many $1,000 trisuits this publicity stunt will sell.
Indeed. They were quivering in their boots knowing that the 12th place Olympic triathlete who isn’t even the strongest cyclist in his sport was going to show up and tri-splain cycling to them.
