Assuming the stars are your guesses, I’m not sure how you put TO behind Blu and Iden. TO understands long course, Kona and will finish ahead of both of them.
Ryf will still win for women.
Hopefully all the hype will make it an exciting year.
I like Matt Hanson, I’ve picked him as my dark horse each year at Kona. But he’s ranked too high compared to the other three stars guys given his performances in his three attempts on the big island as a pro
Hanson:
2019 - DNF
2018 - 33rd
2017 - 34th
Hoffman:
2019 - 4th
2018 - DNS injury
2017 - 9th
TO
2019 - 2nd
2018 - 4th
2017 - 19th
Kienle
2019 - 3rd
2018 - DNF
2017 - 4th
(as well as a podium in 2016 and the champion in 2014)
I’d even say your two star guy in Sanders has clearly outperform him in Kona:
2019 - 22nd
2018 - 28th
2017 - 2nd
Assuming Laura Phillip and Sanders will qualify… I dont put Flora as she has not ever raced IM ever…
Crowley and Rinny, are one star each. Moench is a three star. I am not sure why Crowley has been so off form the last few years but she is not the old crowley
do you have a link to the start list. IS brownlee still in.
I don’t like to guess as its such a difficult day to predict but you are missing Bownlee if racing. Also chris leiferman was top ten at his First IMWC 2019. Sam Long has beaten a lot of the other guys this year and is 2 wins out of his last 3 Ironman races.
I know it is his first go but numbers don’t lie.
I would add those three ahead of a few guys, but also with the way racing is structured this year it will be wild.
Assuming Laura Phillip and Sanders will qualify… I dont put Flora as she has not ever raced IM ever…
Crowley and Rinny, are one star each. Moench is a three star. I am not sure why Crowley has been so off form the last few years but she is not the old crowley
Agree Moench is up there with Matthews (she was only minutes adrift at IMs Florida and Tulsa but has Kona experience which Matthews doesn’t. Agree Lester is with them too: CdA showed her form: only 47 minutes down on Long, But Crowley has been below her amazing 2019 standard since Kona so 2*. Do not underestimate Adam who is at least 3* maybe 4*. Sali has retired. Philipp will struggle after her tribulations in 2021 even if she achieves KQ in the next month. Dark horse: Langridge - if she has one of her ‘good’ days. Duffy - unlikely to race but I think she’s just as competitive as those other IM newbies: Iden and Blummenfelt, isn’t she.
Assuming Laura Phillip and Sanders will qualify… I dont put Flora as she has not ever raced IM ever..
Blummenfelt and Iden have never raced an Ironman, yet you put them on the list. Alistair Brownlee has done few Ironman’s, but has done better than Sanders in his most recent races, and he is fully focused on Long course for the first time, and you left him out. I love Carfrae, but she has proven her swim and bike to be too weak to compete with today’s top women, even in her prime.
Alistair just had ankle surgery a month and a half ago, still not running, just started biking a couple of weeks ago. So you can’t really blame Juanillio for not putting him up there this time.
Why is it we always forget those podium finishers? Is it because they are super boring or one hit wonders? Thinking Bart aertnauts and that Brit which name I can’t remember but finished second a year or two ago?
But yeah the 3 top women are on another level to the rest, hoping for a good battle between them.
Before everyone screams Sam Long, he just said focus this year is worlds and Hawaii is for experience for the coming decade, very very smart move if you ask me.
Ali Brownlee as Diabolo comments above had surgery recently in his ankle so no way he will race this year. Someone asking about Jonny…he is not Q´d so cannot race.
I ranked all the girls/guys under my perception. I did not know abou Kaisa Sali… sure I am missing some girls. I dont think Flora, even giving a try, will have time to train properly. She races till the end of august in the WTS and dont know if she will race Hamburg in September (its part of the 2022 WTC).
I did not put LCB with 5 stars cause Ryf scares, but IMO she is already up with her. I trust her running and her bike has improved so much. I would put Rinny and H.Jackson even with just one star…losing so much time in the swim and not gaining time in the bike is impossible to compensate these days compared to 10 years ago, also considering the top girls are running the same or better splits…
In the men´s,If I add Sanders, with just one *, is because of respect and cause the guy did a 7.45 head to head against Frodo. Maybe he will not qualify…i dont know.
Then, the norwegians…well, never raced IM, never raced in Kona before either but they have the miles and seeing them crush the 70.3s is something to look at.
Tim O…he is 40 something? well, he´ll shout my mouth. Kienle…he comes from an injury and I think he will do fine this year. Maybe I missed Sam Long, thats true, he can be a contender if he focus and dont get burnt in the 70.3 worlds. SUre I am missing some underdogs: Sam Laidlow and Jan VB can be up in top 10 or 5 for sure. Love for Cam Wurf but not sure about his running . In Andorra finished 3rd and dont know if he is training full gas for Kona due to his commitment with Ineos. Maybe I put two ** and not just one to Gomez cause I am spanish and I love the guy but even he will race more smart this year, his bike deficit is something I definitely worry not just for this year , but with his attempts in coming years too… 15m in T2 is almost impossible to make up against the FOP guys. And IMO, Lange, if he performs as he did in Tulsa can be the guy for Frodo to watch out!
I think you mean the Scot Dave McNamee (hope I spelled his name right). He has finished in the top 3 I think 4 years in a row and no one really knows who he is.