After the Wales performance is Joe Skipper a genuine contender?
I think a challenge in kona is the larger front group from the swim making it very hard to make time back after the swim, however, he will likely be exiting the water with guys like Cam Murf, Lionel Sanders and Christian so they will be able to work to the front were I expect to see Brownlee, Currie, Kyle Smith, Baekkegard, Sam Laidlow, Angert smashing away making it very hard for them.
Last question… is 4 weeks enough time to recover and perform again at that level?
It’s often said about Joe that he is one of those that performs well with a recent race in the legs. With almost a month to Kona I think he’ll be peaking, based on no real knowledge, just an opinion. The biggest thing I would be worried about is all the downhill running there appeared to be, could be a real leg wrecker.
Wonder how much personal pressure he had to win though, the prize money is probably how he’s paying for most of the Kona trip.
Since he’s a slightly larger athlete (kg not height), how does he handle the heat compared to say a Patrick Lange? He must weigh 5-8 kg more than Lange for example.
Uneducated guess: he would’ve been fine, had it not been for the chain issue on the bike that took 20 minutes to fix and forced him to run like mad. Normally, given Chevalier’s DNS, he would’ve demolished the soft field at Wales just by cruising the final 42 km. But Joe had to put together an (amazing) monster run to chase down his rivals, and he’s going to feel it. How hard you have gone impacts recovery.
Good point on this race taking its toll. On the other hand its a big confidence boost that he had that run speed in him.
I am excited for kona this year! A lot of unknowns, no frodo, norwegians untested in Kona, Brownlee in the race, Joe’s 2.36 mara, lionel and braiden’s races at st george were awesome and then a bunch of Europeans who could upset the main favourites!
Since he’s a slightly larger athlete (kg not height), how does he handle the heat compared to say a Patrick Lange? He must weigh 5-8 kg more than Lange for example.
Having said that, quite an amazing run!
If you look at the top performing guys there are many who are now “heavier” than normal; Blu, Skipper, Sam Long to name a few. I’d imagine Magnus is relatively heavy (since he is rather tall). Seems the heat prep is more understood these days, and that weight isn’t always the main determining factor.
I think if he’d been in the form he showed yesterday for sub7, he would have beaten Kristian. He ran 2.36 there on a pancake flat, measured to the inch course with a pacer and of course Weedkiller Man. Yesterday he ran 2.37 on a course that was 700m long with more elevation than St George.
After the Wales performance is Joe Skipper a genuine contender? I think a challenge in kona is the larger front group from the swim making it very hard to make time back after the swim, however, he will likely be exiting the water with guys like Cam Murf , Lionel Sanders and Christian so they will be able to work to the front were I expect to see Brownlee, Currie, Kyle Smith, Baekkegard, Sam Laidlow, Angert smashing away making it very hard for them.
Is he a podium contender? ‘Hell yeah!’ Proven in Kona with that 6th he is a stronger faster athlete than in 2019.
Think you’re right: that front bike ‘pack’ will provide them all with a great advantage; hey even Laidlow will be up there if he runs for 26 miles with the quality he showed at Edmonton.
Unlike others, Skipper will not benefit from pack riding. Brownlee will likely be riding with some of the famous five (main first swim pack at St George). The Norges will be in the mix with Sanders et al trying to limit the gap. But Skipper will exit the water with a deficit on Sanders and Wurf and well down on the Norges (note his deficit on Blummenfelt at Sub7). Will be hard: difficult to see how Skipper will ride up to and through and gap the Norges.
Skipper will surely stuff Sanders on the run so the latter will be worried if they are together going into T2. Sanders has never broken 2:40 and his best was when Iden was pacing/running with him in Florida.
A head-to-head foot race of Blummenfelt, Skipper and Iden (+ Sanders?), with Currie, Ditlev? and Brownlee up the road is a mouth-watering and not unrealistic prospect.
In 19 Joe swam 52.30 exiting with a group including wurf, Kienle, lieffeeman and just behind hoffman. The front guys swam 47 like Currie, Jan and O’Donnel.
So with another performance like that then he is in the bunch and its game on. He was only 2 mins behind Cam in the bike leg then ran 2.53.
If you look at Kona we rarely see a lot of guys running sub 2.50 even guys who run 2.40 elsewhere. I think the bike thrashes the legs and just the overall heat and race intensity with so many going for the win leads to this.
The last few years have been relatively mild winds for Kona standard, so if we get a “hard†wind day like 04, 09 and 10 we will get a very exciting race favouring the hard men on bike like Cam, Lionel and I think Joe who has that ability to run well on thrashed legs.
He won with 8 minutes in Wales. As soon as he got to the front he should have slowed down.
I worry the heat is not good for him.
I don’t know that a hilly 2.37 marathon is significantly harder to recover from that a hilly 2.44 marathon, in the grand scheme of things, and the psychological boost of knowing he has that run in him is surely huge.
The PTO points system, for better or worse, also incentivises athletes to push for the fastest time possible, rather than easing off when they have the win in the bag.
What kind of swimmer is he? I had it in my head that he was not a FOP guy. It’s my opinion that a top swim is likely required now to compete for the win in these large events. Both because you can’t afford any type of weakness, the best guys don’t have one, and also because the motos give a large advantage to the leaders in the big events.
He’s definitely a top IM guy though, seems to keep improving. Maybe should consider if his Hoka sponsorship is worth it for him as the data on those shoes is not great.
What kind of swimmer is he? I had it in my head that he was not a FOP guy. It’s my opinion that a top swim is likely required now to compete for the win in these large events. Both because you can’t afford any type of weakness, the best guys don’t have one, and also because the motos give a large advantage to the leaders in the big events.
He’s definitely a top IM guy though, seems to keep improving. Maybe should consider if his Hoka sponsorship is worth it for him as the data on those shoes is not great.His swim is relatively poor (eg worse even than Long and Sanders). But even if he exits the water 5 minutes down he may have the power on the bike to ride up (easier with fellow travellers on the way) and duke it out on the run. Who will run sub 2:40 (normal conditions not Kona)? Two Norges, Brownlee, Skipper, Lange, Chevrot, maybe Sanders, Ditlev and Neumann. Of those who will exit T2 first?
I fervently hope that the Kona motos will be proactively controlled and disciplined to minimise drafting advantage, and that we get coverage of the ‘movers’ in the field and not disproportionate coverage of the side of the lead biker. I expect the split days will mean a better coverage of each race and twice the air time will ‘force’ the director to reach down to the chasing groups and lone riders, directing moto cameras accordingly. We need to see Haug and how far back she is (she, with Philipp and Matthews, has a sub 2:50 PB). Same goes for any MPRO weaker swimmer/strong biker/runner who has a PB of sub 2:40.
What kind of swimmer is he? I had it in my head that he was not a FOP guy. It’s my opinion that a top swim is likely required now to compete for the win in these large events. Both because you can’t afford any type of weakness, the best guys don’t have one, and also because the motos give a large advantage to the leaders in the big events.
He’s definitely a top IM guy though, seems to keep improving. Maybe should consider if his Hoka sponsorship is worth it for him as the data on those shoes is not great.
His swim is relatively poor (eg worse even than Long and Sanders).
I’m not sure that’s accurate. It’s clearly not his greatest strength, but if you look at the head-to-head results for him vs Long/Saunders on the PTO website, when they have been in the same races Joe appears to have an overall better track record.
Since he’s a slightly larger athlete (kg not height), how does he handle the heat compared to say a Patrick Lange? He must weigh 5-8 kg more than Lange for example.
Having said that, quite an amazing run!
If you look at the top performing guys there are many who are now “heavier” than normal; Blu, Skipper, Sam Long to name a few. I’d imagine Magnus is relatively heavy (since he is rather tall). Seems the heat prep is more understood these days, and that weight isn’t always the main determining factor.
While Frodo and Ditlev are lighter than Skipper, I think their biggest advantage in hot weather is their more favourable surface to weight ratio.
Skipper is definitely a contender. I would have him as the same level as Currie who can win the whole thing if he has a perfect/near perfect race.
If I was betting on triathlon, I would put my money on Ditlev though. I think he has the same body type as Jan Frodeno. Both 6’4 and lanky. Who knows, he might be able to do the Roth-Kona double this year too. The other Nordic athletes will give him a run for his money for sure.
Joe is a very exciting racer and is always going to “end” up in the mix for virtually any podium. But Kona is the one race where the swim matters, and he is not going to be anywhere near Christian in T1. I mean, he lost about 5 minutes to him in the sub7, and that was a wetsuit swim, which suits him better against the lead groups.
And as for those others you mentioned, they basically have to have an off swim for him to be there, so he may pick up one or two. Only question is can he motor up to a guy like Wurf if he loses 30 seconds? He does have some great bike power, but keep in mind, all those guys who he could come near in T1 are also uber bikers. That basically is his whole race, getting onto that 3rd group, and then motoring into some type of contention with a super run.
But as others have stated, the off the front group of about 4 to 8, will also have some super solid bikers and runners there, and that is where your winner and most of the podium come from. I think if he can have a magical race, he can get top 5, and if others in that lead group succumb to the Kona curse, an outside shot at 3rd on a brutal bike day…
And a month or so should be long enough to get that run out of his legs. Even though it was a 2;37, he was able to shut down the last % once he made the final pass well before the finish line. So I would say it was a pretty even run, and when you finish strong you usually have a much easier time recovering. It is the go out balls to the wall and then blow runs that add weeks onto ironman recoveries. Glad he got a couch to sleep on…(-;
What kind of swimmer is he?His swim is relatively poor (eg worse even than Long and Sanders).
I’m not sure that’s accurate. It’s clearly not his greatest strength, but if you look at the head-to-head results for him vs Long/Saunders on the PTO website, when they have been in the same races Joe appears to have an overall better track record.
Agree the historical head-to-heads suggest they are all pretty even. But I think both Sanders and Long have both improved in the last year (and are now even - same pack at St George and Samorin) whereas Skipper hasn’t (much). Delighted to be proved wrong. https://stats.protriathletes.org/...joe-skipper/sam-long https://stats.protriathletes.org/...ipper/lionel-sanders
Joe is a very exciting racer and is always going to “end” up in the mix for virtually any podium. But Kona is the one race where the swim matters, and he is not going to be anywhere near Christian in T1. I mean, he lost about 5 minutes to him in the sub7, and that was a wetsuit swim, . . .
. . . the off the front group of about 4 to 8, will also have some super solid bikers and runners there, and that is where your winner and most of the podium come from. I think if he can have a magical race, he can get top 5, and if others in that lead group succumb to the Kona curse, an outside shot at 3rd on a brutal bike day.
Agree: no way will he be near Blummenfelt exiting the water.
In your “off the front group” who had you in mind as solid runners? I can only think of a fit Brownlee. Next best are Currie and maybe Baekkegaard if he puts it together. Those latter two will be caught by the Norges on the run, and potentially by Skipper too. I take it you see Sanders trucking along behind somewhere?