The french academies are brimming with exceptional talent at junior level. The additional investment for Paris will continue to reward through LA28.
Lombardi has been injured but she will be back the 2nd half of the season. Beaugrand will just get better and better.
I think GTB has another Olympics in her (if she really wants it) Waugh has her head turned by T100 (at the moment our best hope for a female medal I reckon) if that carries on to next year I’d be worried this is effecting her chances.
I think we’ve pretty much had the luxury of having 4 women, who have all been capable of medaling on an amazing day for the last three Olympics. At the moment (still a long way off) just a concern we’re not going to have that for LA.
Was great seeing Mathias podium (she could do with getting Coldwells running coach whoever that was) they’re reminding me of each other a lot.
What will be interesting on the women’s side, if Knibb races frequently or infrequently enough to not help the US get 3 females qualified. If she races sparingly, she may not score well enough to help the US women get 3 inside the top 30 (even if she’s one of the better athletes). Almost similiar to Pearson’s pathway in Paris where he raced so infrequently that even though he could podium at WTCS his other either missed races or poor scores kept him outside the top 30. 2 vs 3 also has a big impact on how they choose the team obviously, and of course being a home olympics, you hope/want 6 total athletes to LA Q, not 4 or 5. Some of the young men’s talent, I just wonder how well they’ll actually do at WTCS level and if they can get there in that time frame (now 3 years out).
Mathias isn’t a weak runner, she certainly isn’t up there with Potter/Beaugrand/Lombardi but I think you are ill informed.
She won several XC races over the winter and was flying before she picked up an injury. For her last race she had only just started running again 3 weeks earlier.
Unfortunately you have to be up there with CB, Tertsch, Potter, Lombardi etc to win medals and podium.
I don’t think we’re going to get too many more races were a break sticks for the women.
It’ll be interesting to see whether we will return to women’s breaks. Haven’t seen too many in the last few years.
Think Seregni has improved her biking. She is young and no longer getting dropped by the front pack.
That is one who will always be there in the swim.
I agree, USAT really needs to put in place a strategy to get 3 in each race now. Of course that probably means spending some money, so it may just be everyone on their own as usual. I think the men can do it this time around, seems like we have 3 guys that could get that top 30. Wasnt there something about the home team getting auto spots too, I forget what that was.
The are going to need Spivey and Kristen to come back, and like you said, Knibb will need a good reason to do enough. Gwen is positioned well now, she should be able to hang on there, so perhaps that will be enough. We may end up with that shitty situation they had awhile back, asking someone to race enough to get a spot, then that spot going to someone else(Knibb)…
Host nation auto 2m/2f and therefore automatic MTR team. So essentially it comes down to 3rd ranking athlete in top 30.
Do you think Knibb will go back to short course for LA28?
I don’t think USAT incentivized or strategized a 3rd spot in 2024. They did make an amendment in 2024 National Team criteria but by then it was far too late to secure a 3rd male spot.
Do you think they will make that a priority in 2028?
So that’s a loaded question because here’s what I think/see as a coach. If she truly goes into this LC training/racing over the next few years, I think it’s only going to take away from her SC strength (I know ST loves to discredit demands of competition and specificity, so someone will argue I’m wrong/idiot for that viewpoint). BUT federation spots are also based on how well is your federation competition. So is a 88% SC Knibb still better than a 100% Gina Sereno, or an 40+ year old Gwen (and I don’t mean that negatively, at that age she could literally wake up and say “I’m good” and ride off into the sunset) or a Spivey who’s also adding in more non-draft racing. And then there is also EA there, so I think some talent there, but I think the talent also isn’t as strong as previous olympics. The next generation of athletes I on’t necessarily think are there at the Olympic distance at this point.
So we could see a less than stellar Knibb and she still be strong enough because maybe the usa women she’s up against aren’t as strong anymore either. And then of course my “get off my lawn” rant. I hate how the MTR+Olympic roster are tied together and yet the races are such different race demands, but thems the rules.
(I do not see an athlete doing her LC schedule and then coming back to itu and AQ’ing a spot however. So imo she would be a discretion pick; I just think Venice is going to be a “meh” course and I think LC training/racing will zap the run speed necessary to AQ for a US spot at test event…remember that is only 2 years out as of now).
I don’t want to say she’s “struggling” at the non-draft game, but I think the competition is super strong and she’s still trying to figure LC out. So does that keep her in the LC game even longer? Which again imo only takes away from SC ability normally. So if she doens’t win Kona this year, does she decide to stay in LC another year and race Kona in '26? Which then puts her 8 months out of test event.
Thats some good points!! Thank you
So what are the demands of competition in terms of the race course? Has it been published yet?
I don’t see her even bothering if the race isn’t more challenging than Paris to give her more of an advantage.
Oh of course! She would need to be ranked in the top 5 to secure an auto qualifier spot?
Unless a discretionary spot was created and that would likely mean more law suits with USAT 
No course profile as of yet. You can basically geo-tech search the what will likely be presumed area they are going to race at, and umm yeah not a ton of terrain difference. But maybe they’ll go all super league and make it some tight, 20 turn course “technical” course.
Yep, what is more, they actually sabotaged the possibility of getting a 3rd male spot. USAT specifically prohibited their male athletes from racing Asian world cups to eliminate the „threat” of someone earning a third slot for the country, in which case USAT would have to pay for another athlete’s Paris adventure without (in USAT’s opinion) a corresponding increase in medal chances.
she is not weak at all. but her 10 k pb is 32.55, and 15.47 for 5 k while Tilda mansson run a 32.30 10 k before the turned 21,and then a few weeks later showed in Algherio that she is starting to transfer her run talent into the oly distance ( she run 9.08 for 3 k when aged 18 and had won a senior World Cup triathlon race 6 month or so before ie a triathlete already )
ie you are looking at sub 14.50 potential vs more like sub 15.30 potential
there is a simple solution make it a requirement to be in the top 30 if you want to qualify.
rule a podium or top 8 in certain races, rule b athelte has to be in the top 30 in the ranking at the end of the qualification period to get a slot.
that insures fed and atheltes take short course racing seriously … and not just meh like t100 racers do …
if an athelte is not consistent enough to be top 30 in a 2 year ranking they are more than unlikely to perform to win a medal on day x.
ok on reflection Kate Allen and Stephan vukovic were unlikely to be in the top 30 when they won their medals so thats about 2 out of 42 medals that might have been won by atheltes outside the top 30 ranking ( and iam not even sure if they where outside the top 30)
If I say she’s got a mid pack run, does it sound better? If she needs a minute plus lead off the bike to win a race or poduim I’d be classing that as a weak run.
she is a top 25 percent runner at world series i would say. so thats not weak and not mid pack.
Fine, she doesn’t need to work on her run to bring her regular poduims, can’t think why she’s not making them then, cos her swim and bike is up there, wonder what the issue could be?
And that’s the issue with itu at the moment because some federations could pick a roster based on the MTR and thus their individual ranking may or may not be that good. I mean that’s basically the USA men currently outside of basically only Pearson (and while he has the “potential” to podium, he has always lacked consistency where it’s like he either gets a top result or finishes in 38th, but only gets that big result 1 in every 8 races type of results), everyone else is going to be basically non-medal worthy within the individual, but they would be better at MTR (see Rider getting picked). But even those non-medal worthy athletes are going to show up and race 90% of the itu schedule. Some may not “chase points” if they know they have a inside track and only focus on the wtcs level races.
*it should be noted Pearson was not a top 30 ranked athlete, but he got AQ from I think either 5th or 6th at the test event. Which is kinda funny because neither Knibb or Pearson had podium performances to AQ they got in on the 1st athlete inside top 9. Maybe a federation should hold off on an AQ (from the test event race results, especially if they are then going to have another qualifiation race like usat always does) unless it truly is an podium at the test event. I can understand why they pick the top athlete if they are still inside the top 9, but then it allowed Knibb to go and add a bit of “extra” racing (non itu specific) of her own liking; maybe it did, maybe it didn’t affect her Paris prep.