Myabe if you put more 5 year olds on ski’s you find better skiers, but I think its pretty well evidenced, that the best are not simply a result of the most “talented” or “genetically gifted” but a result of a whole range of more complex factors.
I went to Uni with a Preston North End youth player and a “class of 92” Utd youth player, neither made it, though one of them played first team football for utd with Beckham, Scholes, the Nevils, Giggs etc
Football is pretty good at scouting talent, from a young age which is why you have kids from all countries signed up to Premiership, La Liga, Serie A clubs but once those kids are in the program its not just talent or the exposure that allows them to be selected, its a relentless work ethic.
I’ll preface what I’m about to say by stating I hate football / soccer, but the most amazing thing about the class of 92 kids and I saw them play half a dozen times a year from 92-96 when I was at university in manchester was the longevity of their respective careers. They kicked footballs on a daily basis probably from the time they were 3-4 to their mid to late 30’s - all of them.
Skiers have the same thing, its just a much smaller population. Triathlon doesn’t have anything like it for identifying the real depth of talent because no 3-4 year old is being put intentionally in to a swim bike run program from toddler-hood (except for mine who are currently on a swim bike run program at 2 - I insist they both do every thing quicker all the time :))
Triathlon is made up of a population that is a mile wide, an inch deep and yes they all race, but they all have arrived at the racing stage long after they were demonstrably not successful, or not suited to other sports. (Edit - some triathletes were / are amazing single sport athletes, but have realised they’re a better triathlete than single sport - so who wouldn’t want to win more)
Soccer has a massive adult continuing participation in pub leagues, 5 aside and social leagues many of whom just like to play, its not all competitive, obviously they’re matches but as soon as its done everyones off down the pub, golf is the same, skiing is a social activity for most as most “skiers” are vacation skiers and don’t have access to facilities to enable them to pursue it as a sport. Triathlon for many is similar, yes its a timed event, and yes you finish with a position relative to others, and yes your time may be important to you, but a whole bunch of people finishing in 10, 11, 12 or whatever hours hardly indicates that the sport is deeper in any meaningful way, it just indicates that there’s a bunch of people that like events that require swimming, biking and running and timed triathlon events are the only ones out there, so its inevitable that people are viewed as competing. If the only type of skiing available involved going down hill and being timed, I’m guessing people would still go because they like going downhill on skis, being timed would be a secondary consideration to the participation and enjoyment.
So now being interested in this, I’ve looked at some numbers: (https://www.skistar.com/en/Corporate/About-SkiStar/Our-industry/The-global-alpine-market/)
“People practice alpine skiing on every continent. Around 2,100 ski resorts have been identified around the world. The annual number of skier days has remained relatively stable, at around 400 million.”
We know that these are almost 100% social skiers, given racing is such a tiny fraction of skiing as a whole, but is tri really significantly different, is running? do we really think that the 4-5 hour marathoner is adding to the depth of field at the pointy end or overall?
I’d argue that the depth of field of a marathon might be 2-2.35, certainly those finishing in 2.35 aren’t feeling better about themselves because 15k people finished between 4 and 5 hours, in fact I’d almost guarantee that they don’t think they’re even participating in the same event.
When I finished IM france the winner was showered, changed, had a beer, meal and was probably in the lounge at Nice airport, I’m not sure that my own participation did anything to the “depth of field” and I didn’t in fact do it “to race” I did it because I like the event, the same way I’d like to to UTMB, Norseman, Celtman and Embrunman - they’re interesting events that happen to be timed
The skiing data thing is fascinating:
http://www.isiaski.org/download/20140517_ISIA_Vuokatti_1b_presentation_vanat.pdf
400 million days2000 resorts5-6000k ski areas80 countries6 million commercial beds in mountains for skiing purposes
I’d be really interested to see comparable tri data