21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
Is this “winnable” for Israel where no israelis and no Palestinians will be killed?
Without any commentary on the reasons for it, can Israel prevail?
I suspect not, I think it’s now very much a war of attrition all round.
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
Is this “winnable” for Israel where no israelis and no Palestinians will be killed?
Without any commentary on the reasons for it, can Israel prevail?
I suspect not, I think it’s now very much a war of attrition all round.
With active fighting going on I can’t see how either side wins, if winning is defined as no casualties.
As of yesterday, CNN was reporting that Israel is ready to float a 2 month pause in fighting in exchange for prisoners. If they “pause†for 2 months, it would be very difficult to ramp back up to current levels, so you have to think that would be the first step to getting out of this as a full blown conflict.
As of yesterday, CNN was reporting that Israel is ready to float a 2 month pause in fighting in exchange for prisoners. If they “pause†for 2 months, it would be very difficult to ramp back up to current levels, so you have to think that would be the first step to getting out of this as a full blown conflict.
From a pure game theory perspective, tough deal for Hamas/PIJ. They give up all the remaining hostages, get just 2 months. You’d think they’d want something like an option to extend if there’s something close to zero violence out of Gaza during the two months.
As of yesterday, CNN was reporting that Israel is ready to float a 2 month pause in fighting in exchange for prisoners. If they “pause†for 2 months, it would be very difficult to ramp back up to current levels, so you have to think that would be the first step to getting out of this as a full blown conflict.
From a pure game theory perspective, tough deal for Hamas/PIJ. They give up all the remaining hostages, get just 2 months. You’d think they’d want something like an option to extend if there’s something close to zero violence out of Gaza during the two months.
The deal was described as 2 months pause, which basically means an end to the war, and potentially the ability for Hamas leaders in Gaza to get out. The idea was that those leaders would like to get out and go to some safer location, and Israel would like to get them out of Gaza where they’re coordinating the Hamas efforts.
The deal was described as 2 months pause, which basically means an end to the war, and potentially the ability for Hamas leaders in Gaza to get out. The idea was that those leaders would like to get out and go to some safer location, and Israel would like to get them out of Gaza where they’re coordinating the Hamas efforts.
Does it, though? The last pause was very much not an end, and there is a faction in the IDF and Israeli government who are dead-set on taking the conflict to some notion of “complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza.” I don’t know what that means, exactly, but pretty sure it hasn’t happened yet.
Also removing leadership from militants isn’t a way to get great discipline. When the U.S. dismantled the Iraqi military leadership after 9/11, it didn’t go well. I also don’t see Hamas leaders taking that deal. They’d be vilified internally, and they wouldn’t believe for one second that letting them leave wouldn’t mean they’re hunted down later.
Maybe you’re right, and I’d like you to be right. I’m just sceptical.
The deal was described as 2 months pause, which basically means an end to the war, and potentially the ability for Hamas leaders in Gaza to get out. The idea was that those leaders would like to get out and go to some safer location, and Israel would like to get them out of Gaza where they’re coordinating the Hamas efforts.
Does it, though? The last pause was very much not an end, and there is a faction in the IDF and Israeli government who are dead-set on taking the conflict to some notion of “complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza.” I don’t know what that means, exactly, but pretty sure it hasn’t happened yet.
Also removing leadership from militants isn’t a way to get great discipline. When the U.S. dismantled the Iraqi military leadership after 9/11, it didn’t go well. I also don’t see Hamas leaders taking that deal. They’d be vilified internally, and they wouldn’t believe for one second that letting them leave wouldn’t mean they’re hunted down later.
Maybe you’re right, and I’d like you to be right. I’m just sceptical.
I think a 2 month pause is significantly different from a couple of days. It’s hard to ramp back up after that long, and the inertia of international pressure will be against them. I think it could be a way for Israel to off ramp without saying they’re doing so. We’ll see.
As for the whole deal, I’m skeptical as well, especially on the heels of these recent casualties. I don’t know all the details, nor do I necessarily think it’s a done deal, but the reporting yesterday claimed that it had at least a little bit of traction.
Not yet is it their Vietnam. The IDF and political leadership do not think it a war of attrition as they still seek destruction until surrender. The Israeli citizens have not yet turned on their leadership but they are being heard on the hostage issue. The acceptable attrition of the IDF is predicated on the need for the force to return to their civilian worker status and the state of the border to the north.
I don’t get the connection to Vietnam - for the US Vietnam was 1000’s of miles away and it mattered little if we won or lost. Winning and losing didn’t even need to be defined. We sent the poor to fight and die, and in the States, life went on.
I’d imagine if children of all socio economic groups were dying 20 miles away then maybe that might have a more immediate impact on what a population are willing to bear
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21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
And those 21 may have killed themselves as they were possibly committing a war crime. Since they were mining the buildings to blow them up when the building they were in blew up.
About it being a war crime:
https://x.com/naksbilal/status/1749751506725675473?s=46&t=GnXKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg
Mother of a hostage accusing IDF of killing him along with 2 others with poison gas. IDF not confirming cause of death.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-gaza-israeli-army-unable-confirm-reason-behind-hostage-deaths
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
And those 21 may have killed themselves as they were possibly committing a war crime. Since they were mining the buildings to blow them up when the building they were in blew up.
About it being a war crime:
https://x.com/...XKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg
I’d wait to see on that one. There’s a big difference between rigging a building for demolition and booby-trapping it with mines.
It’s seems unlikely to me given the intense scrutiny in Gaza that the IDF would resort to booby-trapping, especially being more common as a defensive tactic when the IDF is very much on the offensive.
Not impossible. But I’d wait for confirmation.
Mother of a hostage accusing IDF of killing him along with 2 others with poison gas. IDF not confirming cause of death.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/...ehind-hostage-deaths
Your link referred to “toxic gas,” not “poison gas.” There’s a difference. It could be referring to dying from inhalation of the gases from conventional bombs when in an unventilated underground tunnel.
Little difference to the alleged dead hostage, just clarying that this may not be a claim that the IDF is using illegal chemical weapons.
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
And those 21 may have killed themselves as they were possibly committing a war crime. Since they were mining the buildings to blow them up when the building they were in blew up.
About it being a war crime:
https://x.com/...XKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg
I’d wait to see on that one. There’s a big difference between rigging a building for demolotion and booby-trapping it with mines. It’s seems unlikely to me given the intense scrutiny in Gaza that the IDF would resort to booby-trapping.
Not impossible. But I’d wait for confirmation.
I doubt they were booby trapping. But that was not the war crime that was possibly happening.
Demolishing a home a could also be a war crime.
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
And those 21 may have killed themselves as they were possibly committing a war crime. Since they were mining the buildings to blow them up when the building they were in blew up.
About it being a war crime:
https://x.com/...XKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg
I’m not sure a single Tweet says much about this being a war crime.
The reporting indicates that the team was rigging the building for demolition (not something you’d use mines for), and that Hamas fired a rockets at the building that brought down the building, and the building next to it (according to IDF spokesman). Not clear if the Hamas rocket/tank cause unplanned or sympathetic detonation of the demolition charges.
IDF claims the demolition was part of efforts to clear buildings and establish a safe zone around the Gaza border.
Certainly not anything in reporting yet to suggest this was any kind of activity that would constitute a war crime on IDF’s part.
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
And those 21 may have killed themselves as they were possibly committing a war crime. Since they were mining the buildings to blow them up when the building they were in blew up.
About it being a war crime:
https://x.com/...XKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg
I’m not sure a single Tweet says much about this being a war crime.
The reporting indicates that the team was rigging the building for demolition (not something you’d use mines for), and that Hamas fired a rockets at the building that brought down the building, and the building next to it (according to IDF spokesman). Not clear if the Hamas rocket/tank cause unplanned or sympathetic detonation of the demolition charges.
IDF claims the demolition was part of efforts to clear buildings and establish a safe zone around the Gaza border.
Certainly not anything in reporting yet to suggest this was any kind of activity that would constitute a war crime on IDF’s part.
I think it is likely being a building rigged for demolition contributed to the deaths of the people inside the building rigged for demolition.
Can you explain what the military necessity it is to blow up unoccupied homes?
Only seems necessary if you are trying to prevent people from living there in the future.
21 Israeli soldiers killed this morning. 25k or so Palestinians to date.
Is this “winnable” for Israel where no israelis and no Palestinians will be killed?
Without any commentary on the reasons for it, can Israel prevail?
I suspect not, I think it’s now very much a war of attrition all round.
No… no it’s not.
Can you explain what the military necessity it is to blow up unoccupied homes?
Sure.
Maybe IDF is trying to establish a clear area at the border, which allows for ease of seeing what’s happening before it gets to the border itself, and prevents Hamas from establishing cover and concealment right along the border area. They clear out buildings, level any structures, and now they have a buffer area of X meters where they can see anything coming.
And I don’t know if this was “homes.” The reporting I’ve seen just says “building.” Could be office space. Could be a library. Could be a bakery. Could be almost anything until we see something more definitive. Have you seen something that indicates this was residential?
Can you explain what the military necessity it is to blow up unoccupied homes?
Sure.
Maybe IDF is trying to establish a clear area at the border, which allows for ease of seeing what’s happening before it gets to the border itself, and prevents Hamas from establishing cover and concealment right along the border area. They clear out buildings, level any structures, and now they have a buffer area of X meters where they can see anything coming.
And I don’t know if this was “homes.” The reporting I’ve seen just says “building.” Could be office space. Could be a library. Could be a bakery. Could be almost anything until we see something more definitive. Have you seen something that indicates this was residential?
That still doesn’t sense. Because let’s say they want 600 meters of clear land. They can just clear the 600 meters on their side of the border.
Because how do they prevent the Palestinians from just rebuilding their homes. Are they going to keep Gaza occupied to do this?
That is why clearing the 600 meters on their side, since they can control that area.
Also how is that a military necessity? Are they allowed to clear 600 meters around wherever they are? Or is it just the border? Why do they need it at the border, but not other areas they are operating?
Evidence of it being homes? This is an Israeli journalist, but may also be a translation resulting in 10 homes:
https://x.com/itayblumental/status/1749662996131946520?s=46&t=GnXKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg