Originally published at: IRONMAN World Championship Qualifying + Pro Series Update - Slowtwitch News
With IRONMAN World Championship Qualification having wrapped up after Frankfurt, let’s dive into who made it to Nice and Kona. We will then also look at (& try to make sense of) the Pro Series standings. Both the men’s and women’s IRONMAN championship fields are roughly composed of the same number of athletes ranked within the top-50 compared to previous years. Why is that significant? With more races to choose from, athletes are still prioritizing the IRONMAN World Championships. That means we will be treated to the stellar racing we have been accustomed to seeing!
The women’s side is led by some heavy hitters, like Lucy Charles-Barclay, Anne Haug, Kat Matthews, Laura Philipp, and Chelsea Sodaro. Several others, including Alice Alberts, Ruth Astle, Jackie Hering, Fenella Langridge, Danielle Lewis, Els Visser, and Lotte Wilms, will try to have an impact on the race. As you have probably heard by now, Daniela Ryf has retired and will not be competing. There are so many story lines to choose from here. Will Charles-Barclay make it to the start line healthy and ready to defend her title? Which versions of Anne Haug and Chelsea Sodaro will we get? Kat Matthews and Laura Philipp are two of the more consistent racers in the sport but are they ready to take the next step and beat a field of this caliber?
The men’s field is equally impressive. Daniel Bakkegard, Kristian Blummenfelt, Magnus Ditlev, Sam Laidlow, Patrick Lange, Lionel Sanders, will all be gunning for top spot. Gregory Barnaby, Antonio Benito Lopez, Leon Chevalier, Trevor Foley, Matt Hanson, Ben Kanute, Menno Koolhaas, and Rudy Von Berg, add plenty of depth to this start list. Then you have wild cards like 2022 World Champion Gustav Iden. Iden is under-raced but is that really such a bad thing with the balancing act several of the top seeds have had to do this season? Could someone like Kieran Lindars come seemingly out of nowhere to challenge for the podium? Will Matthew Marquardt be able to swim and bike at the front of the race? Will Robert Kallin be able to ride through this field like he has done in most of his races this season?
As of today, Jackie Hering and Matt Hanson lead the Pro Series. We are going to attempt to do some math here. IRONMAN will count your three best full distance races and your two best half distance races towards your point total (or 3-5 70.3 races, 3 is the maximum for scoring full distance races). Many of the athletes in the top-10 in the current standings have already completed five races. They can improve upon those scores, sure, but that does not necessarily mean that they will still finish in those coveted spots. You can score a maximum of 5,000 points at IRONMAN events and 2,500 points at 70.3 events. The IRONMAN World Championship is worth 6,000 points and the 70.3 World Championship is worth 3,000 points. 21,500 points is the highest anyone could score if they won the two world championship events and won three other Pro Series races. We could very well see someone with no interest in the Pro Series win the championship events. The second they cross the finish line, however, the clock will start ticking for everyone else. Athletes doing well in the series now need to do damage control to limit their losses in these events. They ideally will finish within 16 minutes at the IRONMAN World Championships and 8 minutes at the 70.3 World Championships to be able to increase their current score totals.
There is plenty of room for someone who has not scored in five races yet, but who will end up scoring in five races, to win the series. What about someone who does not complete five races like Kristian Blummenfelt if he were to win both championship races? That would leave him with 14,000 points, which would not get him the series win. Lionel Sanders gets a little more interesting at a maximum of 18,384, scoring with three 70.3 races (assumes winning both championship races). The reality is that it is a tall order for someone who does not score at three full distance races to win the series. I think 19,000 is probably the right threshold we should be looking at for the series win. Lange, Marquardt, and Hanson are all in strong positions on the men’s side, especially if scores are adjusted from IRONMAN Texas. Series regulars like Kallin, Barnaby, and Hogenhaug, all have a real chance. The current top-4 on the women’s side, Hering, Lewis, Stage-Nielsen, and Matthews, are all in great positions. Daniela Bleymehl, Els Visser, and Lotte Wilms, are intriguing due to the fact that they have already bagged two full distance races. The women’s leaders look to be safer from someone new emerging towards the top of the standings. All of this is to say that championship season is going to be a lot of fun! We have great fields and the results will influence the final Pro Series standings.