I’ve followed T.F. for a while now. His videos lately show a very positive, high energy, dude. We know his bike strength and he’s been talking about 70,80,90 mile run weeks with a speed of 2:20 marathon on his speed work. He’s already a strong runner before this. I really think he’s going to have a great bike/run combo. I’m excited to see what he does and i think he has a top 10 finish in him. Maybe even sliding into #5 spot.
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I tested a few things with him 2 weeks ago. He is all the above. Super nice guy, very calm. Based on his latest videos he decided to stay home until last minute. In many ways it may be a great decision. As a Florida boy, he probably has heat tolerance built into him.
I would love to see top 5 but even top 10 would be incredible.
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Definitely going to be interesting to see if his Wednesday arrival is going to pay off. I guess he’s trying to hold on to his altitude advantage.
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The front group will be huge, maybe even bigger than in 2022 when there were 19 guys at the front. 11 of them are racing in 2024 : Laidlow, Blummenfelt, Iden, Baekkegard, Currie, Wilkowiecki, Chevrot, Appleton, Petersen (+ Amorelli and Lopes who are not contenders). According to this year’s results, Koolhaas, Marquardt, Stepniak, Benito, Lindars, Barnaby, Kanute, (+ Gross-Freese ) are likely to join them. Ditlev and RVB may benefit from T100 races and seem to have improved. Lange posted on his IG that he swam with the FP till the turnaround suggesting that he intended to be at the front too. Bradley Weiss and Mignon who made the front pack last year should be close but not quite there. Mc Namee, Heemeryck and Kallin + Hogenhaug who could be big factors on the bike (although not on the race) should be less than 1 minute to the front pack.
This means that about half of the field will be at the front making it harder for the weaker swimmers to bridge up. The only good thing going for them is that unlike Long at T100 they will not be alone. Chevalier, Sanders, Foley, and Svenningson (the 2 Swedes may be the strongest bikers in the field!) will be able to join forces. They may be able to catch other good riders caught in the middle like Wurf, Burton or Laudry. Foley is the only great runner among those but chances are he will be this year’s Joe Skipper ‘best of the rest’. The only chance they get to the front is if Ditlev and Laidlow fail to drop Blummenfelt and it gets tactical but they know that the ‘runners’ (Lange, Benito, Koolhaas, Chevrot) are looming behind.
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I think he’s just trying to hold onto his $$$. That’s a damn expensive trip for a young athlete. I think he’s got a top 10 in him this year, but he’s going to overcook it a bit i bet.
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Gustav Iden told Kyle Glass on PTN that he didn’t think the front group would be exceptionally fast. (He didn’t say it wouldn’t be big though.) His theory is that athletes would be weary of overcooking. Cites the example of Laidlow who swam London without a wetsuit out of concern about overheating.
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Iden is playing the “under the radar” / “Not as fit as in 2022” card again and again. I call BS 
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My picks:
- KB
- Laidlow
- Ditlev
- Iden
- Kanute
I think something would have to go very wrong for KB to not win this, but I don’t think Laidlow will be too far behind.
Laidlow offers his take on how the race is likely to unroll:
( @1:45 for four minutes) 64t chainring to avoid spinning out
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I’ll be doing podium picks later this week in a separate article.
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Daniel’s interesting take on the need to use sunscreen…Don’t hold back mate. 
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Excellent preview: to your contenders for top 5 list I’d add Lopez.
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Here is a cool Kona perspective by James Cunnama (4th and 5th in Kona and Roth winner)
…and for those of us who have been to some dark places in our minds, this video of his is worth a watch. Much respect James.
Thanks for the videos, that 2nd one was quite relatable for me. Have the same kids, wife, life, only did it 20 years after him. He came in after I had left, but seems like a really good dude, wish him the best.
Alistair Brownlee
David MacNamee
Joe Skipper
Any rumors of guys with niggles or coming down with illness? There always seems to be a few.
Bakkegaard was saying on his YouTube channel he was having breathing issues. Though he wasn’t sure if it was the air conditioning (which he isn’t used to) or if he actually caught something
Nothing really jumping out at me, probably hava a go at Laidlow and Ditlev for the win and Foley to get on the podium at 8/1 is the only decent value for mony bet im thinking.
Here’s tri247’s commentary on the book:
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