Ironman Texas 2025 - Predictions and Race Day

I’d just quibble with this a little. The course (conditions) is as slow as mud. If Kona were just another race on the circuit and not one people were targeting their entire career for it would have slower results.

You’ve got everyone in the field going to all manner of extremes to target Kona in ways that just isn’t done for any other race. So if you take a race that everyone is structuring their entire season around and the fastest they can make it is “mid pack”, then it’s a slow race.

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Doping was there is the 80 and 90 s too. And likely Less testing .

I am not hinting they are doping I made a long list of why things are faster “ for everyone “

Doping make a few faster due to drugs . Also legal pharmaceutical have also helped people stay healthy and recover from illness. Tue s also

How many 7 foot NBA’ers in 1994 could hit 3’s and handle the ball like Durant, Antetokounmpo, and Wembanyama? How many Ohtani’s were throwing 100, and going 50-50? How many Heisman trophy winners were like the Travis Hunter the best receiver and cornerback in college football?

The evolution of the athlete is amazing to witness.

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Take the doping convo to it’s own thread not a race related convo and I’m totally open to the convo. But having it here in a race thread is wrong, hard stop.

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I never talked about developed skill I said genetics.

Also bol hit a a lot of threes late is his career . At 7”8

But maybe we see these guys break so much because they aren’t supposed to play the perimeter, right.

Was the race wetsuit legal for the age groupers?

No.

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The part that we likely align is not that genetics are better, there are more people with the right genetics trying triathlon. But no way the athletes today are not better than Mark Allen (or for that matter Crowie). Mark ran 2:38 in Kona pre super shoes and a bunch of times around 2:42. Crowie won Kona with 2:42 runs but also ran 2:38 in Melbourne 2012. Those 2:38’s with supershoes are down in the 2:35 range. Pretty well the same as what Blu just ran. As I said, the swim speeds have not really changed. The Kona swim record stood at 46.xx for a few decades before Jan Sibersson broke it in 2018. Now the course is shorter and has a faster record by STer @Sam.askeydoran

Anyway, I would say there are more fast athletes around by the absolute best guys are not much better. I doubt that any of the women today would beat Chrissie Wellington on the same equipment. They would beat PNF, and they’d beat Badmann, but not Wellington (either these athletes racing Chrissie on the same gear or Chrissie racing them on the same gear)

Reverting to the race!
Does anyone know why these WPros DNF’d:
Rachel Zilinskas
Regan Hollioake
Julie Iemmolo
Danielle Lewis
First three were in the top 7 out of the water and I expected Lewis (gapped by >10 in the water but in typical style) to power up the field on the road and particularly on the loops round the lake.
Zilinskas held on to Knibb for ages: brave. Maybe that effort made the run (her weakness) a struggle.
Lewis certainly had top 8 potential for the IM Pro Series, but ‘null points’ here is a seriously blow (given the general NA reluctance to travel).

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Lewis had an Instagram post on her DNF
Can’t remember details but she said she had the best swim but don’t feel right on the bike etc. in short, wasn’t her day

Not sure about the rest

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at the end of the day once you are out of the top 8 to focus on the series is not really a smart idea and you would be better of doing smaller nearby with less. travel stress but the ability to race more frequently
so a few atheltes tri but stop going for the series when they realise it does not work
and with Daniel I guess she said ok today there is no points I go somewhere else.
I would assume for most atheltes going for the series likely adds 5 k travelling expenses for the year and with the extra travel time it’s a hard pass given that. 11th place is 8 k

like Julie would make a more money racing embrunman and finishing third than 11th place at the ironman series. and if you dont make points it makes more sense to stop. price money wise her best 2 races have been embrunman and the long distance worlds ( based on a quick glance at her results )
so I guess the more interesting question is, why some atheltes did race Texas.

for zelinskas it made obviously sense as she got her sponsors tv time. and to add likely a swim sponsor prime.

[quote=“KingMidas, post:425, topic:1287815, full:true”]

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Some of us have been around more than 30 years and can remember when going under an hour for the 40k ride in an Olympic distance bike leg was a big deal. Pro women who could go under 10 hrs were awesome and age grouper guys who broke 9:30 hrs were legends.

Remember, it was only 8.5 years ago when Lionel set the Ironman fastest ever time of 7:44:29 in Arizona, a time that would be good for 10th place in Texas this year. The entire sport is different now with 17 guys going under 8hrs on the mens side last weekend and whereas years ago, going under 8hrs weas a dream, these days it is expected.,and required.

BUT, T2 was also embedded as part of the distance back then . . . so bump it back to the actual time of 2:40xx

Looking at AG results, especially mine, times were slow. I would imagine if the qualified for Kona they would be much more competitive

Swim and run times haven’t improved at the same percentage as bike times have.

Part of the faster bike times is due to a combination of advanced equipment (more aero bikes, helmets, clothes, wheels) and more optimal positions. Absolutely.

A lot however is due to these guys just flat out hammering the bike at power levels we’ve likely not seen before AND still having the ability to run 2:30/2:40-somethings. I think that’s where we are seeing the “better athlete” than decades past.

Similarly for the women.

It only measures GPS. It’s surprisingly small and not noticeable. It’s covered in rubber so it doesn’t bounce in the pocket at all. Only time it’s noticeable is when you look up too far the tail of the helmet can bump against it.

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IM Texas course changed in 2017. Looks like the data goes back to 2013. Do you know if he’s eliminated the old data? On the other hand, while it is a fast course maybe its not quite as fast as we think because it attracts a very high quality field. Like, the reason Knibb got the bike record and Kat got the overall record could be…because those two are two of the best to ever do it?

Of course you are right, that for a course to be fast, fast people have to prove that. I think any of the flat races our there, FLA, AZ, etc. are all fast. The variable here is the weather on the day and how competitive the field was. This course loses a couple minutes as there were no wetsuits for the swim, but having 20 guys mostly together on the entire bike ride is a huge plus, and thus bike course records too. And even though pros passing AG’ers is night and day, all thse 20mph riders do create some sort of vacuum to ride into and through. I bet more watts saved than a 20m draft zone, and couple that with their 12m zone, and well see how many went under 4 hours.

I think for our purposes we can just use current and historical times to gauge a course, as over time there is bound to be great weather days to tease it out…And where have you been, you still swimming these days??

I suspect that’s the Kona effect as well. Everyone’s waiting for the KQ slots, especially with the uncertainty around 2026 onwards. I know I am waiting - I just have to figure out if I want to travel to the US or I want to sleep in my own bed for IM Ottawa for next year. (Ottawa being very late in the cycle)

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Agree. I’m waiting for the KONA race quals to open.