Sanchez and Visser have T100 Singapore to race immediately after this, with Reischmann and MSN their stiff competition, and even Astle if she’s back to her 2022 form (or IMWC 2024 Nice, but + a 26 mile run).
Ditlev head and shoulders above the rest. MvR, Chevalier, Chevrot and Weiss for the podium. Will Wurf actually show up or is he a startlistbot? I note Schomburg (DEU) from short course on the list (debut IM; has completed the odd MD).
Mens race looks super interesting, and I think that MVR could surprise. Recall in his first Ironman he had that big sit down problem, so expect he will now be in the 7;30+ club on fast courses. Also means a probable break in the swim to Magnus, so he will be burning matches early on the bike to catch guys that run as good or better than he does.
But of course his bike is such a weapon, he deserves favorite status in just about any ironman race he shows up too…
In Cozumel, leading the bike with Chevalier in the last 10 miles MvR lost 20:33 with that crash. With that considerable ‘rest’ he ran 2:39 for a total 7:56, 17 minutes down on winner Aernouts.
The IMSA ‘record’ is Hoffman’s 7:58 (WPro Wellington 8:33, which implies a really good MPro could go 7:46).
Just checked the starting list.
Not sure we’ve ever seen that great of a field. 14 guys have already won at least one full IM race and they have won a total of 44 IM ! (including Ditlev 's Roth which are at least as valuable as IM branded races). 8 of the top 17 at Kona last year + 3 Olympians.
17 have qualified at least once for WC
At least 25 guys have gone sub 8 hours!
Really hope we can have a ‘normal’ swim which has become rare at ZAF.
Excited to watch the race within the race between runners Hanson and Chevrot which may be the best runners in the sport behind Lange.
Plus they will have a rematch at Roth.
I’m sure all the top ten will be well aware of him. I wonder whether he’ll moderate his effort, though, given Singapore a week later and that his primary aim is to get a KQ with secondary gaining full distance experience for (eg nuitrition) and only tertiary to go ftw.
Worth noting that the course this year is back to the old configuration (2 x 1.9km swim, Aussie exit, 3 x 60km quite flat, 3 x 14km run flat). It will be fast, but wind is always a big factor, Kona levels at times). Hoping there will be a full swim, not always a sure thing at IMSA these days.
If the wind is anything like last weekend, there won’t be a full swim, although they’ve tried their best to make it as accessible as possible with a 2 lap course.
To me it’s MvR as a favourite. The swim front pack will try to rip the group quickly and I suspect MvR will be there in the front while Dietlev won’t. The course is a good rolling one, with group dynamics playing a role. In a pure run battle I again think MvR has an advantage.
The biggest factor is going to be the conditions, which will also define who wins the race. It can be anywhere from 20-35 degrees Celcius, high winds, potentially some rain followed by sun in the afternoon which makes it humid. Rasmus Svenningson (last year’s winner) has been training in SA for some time, he might be used to the conditions the best.
In windy conditions and group dynamics playing a role, experience could actually sell at a premium here. Advantage Ditlev. But I agree that MvR has a slight edge otherwise. And Ditlev being a human calculator, he’ll maybe have calculated that being in top shape in March is a high risk strategy for the season. MvR comes from short course and will bring with him the belief that you have to maintain an equal (top) form throughout the season.
Edit: MvR posting a 45 km / 21 mi long run (with variable pace) averaging a speed that corresponds to a 2:34 marathon.
I see Mikel Txopitea as a potential underdog! Great improvements lately, master of the aerogainz. Also heat adapted and sleeping inside a hypoxic tent. My bet is to him.
After Geelong, Wurf has said he’s headed back to California (he has a favourite LBS there who can sort his bike out), not travelling via South Africa.
The forecast wave height for Sunday is >5 feet (down from over 6 feet).
Breivold looks like an athlete who would benefit most from a swim cancellation. His bike-run is top 5.
