11 days to go - let´s get some predictions running. Just saw that Blu is racing - attempting to validate for Kona. Head to head with Lange!
Stacked field indeed. Looks like a non-wetsuit swim
As always, everybody wants to win, but this race might have different dynamics:
there’ll be athletes who want to get IM win & podium,there’ll be athletes fighting for points,there’ll be athletes fighting for qualification and validation.
There’re 6 qualifying slots, so the slots might easily roll to 9, 10, 11…
Personally, I’ve had a chance to swim, bike & run the course last weekend. For the swim I still hope for a wetsuit swim (it’s a fresh water lake), bike course suits strong riders (technical skills not required, W/CdA >>> W/kg), run is pretty standard flat-ish (flat along the river + 2x up & down the bridges every loop).
If somebody is caught doping in competition testing, then the best explanation is that he was pricked with a random needle near the main station / Bahnhofstrasse.
I am racing too, Michal! Looks like temps are over 30 early next week, but let´s see.
At least please not a repeat of the temps from 2014, where my Garmin on the bike showed 39 degrees at the end of the bike 
As always, everybody wants to win, but this race might have different dynamics:
there’ll be athletes who want to get IM win & podium,there’ll be athletes fighting for points,there’ll be athletes fighting for qualification and validation.
There’re 6 qualifying slots, so the slots might easily roll to 9, 10, 11…
Personally, I’ve had a chance to swim, bike & run the course last weekend. For the swim I still hope for a wetsuit swim (it’s a fresh water lake), bike course suits strong riders (technical skills not required, W/CdA >>> W/kg), run is pretty standard flat-ish (flat along the river + 2x up & down the bridges every loop).
If somebody is caught doping in competition testing, then the best explanation is that he was pricked with a random needle near the main station / Bahnhofstrasse.
There’ll be athletes fighting for qualification and validation.
There’re 6 qualifying slots, so the slots might easily roll to 9, 10, 11…Only KB for validation as the only other exemption not validated already is Bogen, who is not on the start list (so has no full distance plans (as one still young).
No fighting required, and even if DQ’d Blummenfelt just needs to complete the course ‘competitively’.
So many of the top athletes are IMWCQ (18), the route to Kona will stretch to 16 or even further down, given 6 x being offered).
Ninety 90 (!) on the start list: plenty of room on the road. If the field is spread out by T1 to 6 minutes, that’s a rider every 4 seconds.
Full on sprinting from the swim exit to the bikes and then the mount line will be the easiest and quickest way to gain 10 places.
Let the slotting in fest begin, and given Teutonic adherence to die rulz, hope they have plenty of watches in the penalty boxes.
Race Ranger I assume. ‘If it’s blue, keep on thru; if it’s flashing expect a thrashing.’
KQ on start list:
Blummenfelt  Currie  Foley  Hamilton  Hanson  Lange  Laundry  Mignon  Olij  Petersen  Phillips  Schuster  Stępniak  Szala  Thompson  Weiss  Wilkowiecki  Wurf 
Thorsten has shared his seedings:
https://www.trirating.com/ironman-germany-2024-mpro-only-aug-18th-seedings/
Blummenfelt, Lange, Neumann, Foley, Wilkowiecki, Mignon, Barnaby, Weiss.
Just a training day for Kristian.
If TFoley can survive the travel and resulting jet lag he’ll give PLange a serious run for his money.
Lange
Foley
Wurf (because why not)
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Not saying you are wrong (especially not on 1st & 2nd) but answering your question:
There are 10 guys in the field that runs 10-15 mins faster than Wurf, right?
I personally doubt that Blu will just go and stamp the ticket. It IS the European Championships afterall.
Lange
Foley
Wurf (because why not)
I agree. I think after a lackluster year off, Blu is going to be ready to be the one leaving his competitors speechless.
Not saying you are wrong (especially not on 1st & 2nd) but answering your question:
There are 10 guys in the field that runs 10-15 mins faster than Wurf, right?
I personally doubt that Blu will just go and stamp the ticket. It IS the European Championships afterall.
Lange
Foley
Wurf (because why not)
one thing that struck me looking at torsten’s predictions is that he has the top 35 athletes going sub-8. 7 guys running 2:40 or better! man, the times have changed.
as for picking winners, i really don’t know. neumann seemed underwhelming at london - he’s back but not 100% yet. lange has been racing like crazy. KB ought to be odds-on favourite, i guess, but i don’t feel completely confident in him. has foley done a lot of international racing? will braden finally have things break his way? can wurf find another great marathon? how many of these guys want to go deep into the well in august?
Will not podium or even be in the running.
neumann seemed underwhelming at london - he’s back but not 100% yet.
lange has been racing like crazy.
KB ought to be odds-on favourite, i guess, but i don’t feel completely confident in him.
has foley done a lot of international racing?
will braden finally have things break his way?
can wurf find another great marathon?
how many of these guys want to go deep into the well in august?
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neumann seemed underwhelming at london - he’s back but not 100% yet.
Who knows but if he’s ready for Frankfurt he really went overboard on the ‘jog it in’ style in his first T100. -
lange has been racing like crazy.
Has he? Texas win, a 70.3, 8 weeks then Roth and 6 weeks later . . . . -
KB ought to be odds-on favourite, i guess, but i don’t feel completely confident in him.
I find it difficult to imagine he’s been doing any longer distance work or time on the TT bike, so I cut him some slack: just go out there and validate. Kona is what matters. -
has foley done a lot of international racing?
Homeboy: not even Canada! https://stats.protriathletes.org/athlete/trevor-foley Let’s hope he has a passport. Having said that, can see him in the fight. -
will braden finally have things break his way?
Will Currie not have things break? Three DNFs out of 5 races. -
can wurf find another great marathon?
Irrelevant, but entertaining. -
how many of these guys want to go deep into the well in august?
Why not? Ages till Kona and key athletes yet to KQ: Neumann, Barnaby, Hoegenhaug, Salvisberg, Koolhaas, Angert (worth noting Lopes is now KQ from Texas).
Several need a time as close to the winner as possible: every second counts in the IM Pro Series.
Perhaps they could, as a special case, allow Knibb to race to validate: how many men would she chick on the swim/bike? Half the field?
Looks like Wurf and Neumann are out. Two heavy hitters now out. Looking at this start list I can’t recall a time I was this excited for a non world championship Ironman.
No way Foley races after winning IMUSA
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Looks like Wurf and Neumann are out. Two heavy hitters now out. Looking at this start list I can’t recall a time I was this excited for a non world championship Ironman.
and a late addition to give Trevor company on the bike ðŸ¤
No way Foley races after winning IMUSA
According to his Instagram, he is racing.
Looks like Wurf and Neumann are out. Two heavy hitters now out. Looking at this start list I can’t recall a time I was this excited for a non world championship Ironman.
this is fantastic we are so lucky on slowtwitch that we have 2 of the worst triathlon race predictors there is lol
i d love to set up a prediction shoot out between you and kajet.
you are koolhaas for the win i think can you finish the top 5 and kajet will you please do your picks as well